This thread is a continuation of the comment: Remedy Entertainment Oyj -ketju (Osa 1) - #10422 käyttäjältä Relaaja - Osakkeet - Inderes forum.
Previous thread:
The first 10,000 posts reached. Thank you to all fellow contributors for the diverse discussion and for maintaining the quality of the thread!
If the multi-project model doesn’t lead to cash flow growth, at least it has led to an increase in the thread’s post count 
64 Likes
Remedy has partially followed its disclosure policy.
- Consistency and continuity have been realized.
- Equal treatment has not been achieved. For example, analyst discussions have been organized for which no recordings have been provided (the now-famous quote by Tero Virtala at a small cap seminar: “It doesn’t really matter to us if a game sells 3 or 5 million copies. 3 is enough to show us that we make high-quality games”).
- Game sales figures are material information. Yet, this information has not been provided without delay. Management must clearly state at least the reason why the information has not been given. Nowhere has it been openly disclosed that there is some sort of non-disclosure agreement. And if there were, Remedy would have acted contrary to its disclosure policy by signing such an agreement.
Pretty words:
Tiedonantopolitiikka - Remedy Investors (remedygames.com)
It’s very easy for a CEO to forget small investors. We can stay quietly silent or push our case. In the Roast, I would have hoped for a proper grilling. I understand that Inderes can’t afford that. But now people here are on hot coals with each other 
. Tero Virtala would probably be laughing 
10 Likes
No. Non-disclosure agreement. Fully. Prevents. Providing guidance. To investors.
If Konecranes were to receive a 5-year, €100m order from Stora Enso, the matter could be communicated, for example, in the following way:
“Konecranes has signed a multi-year agreement with a top 3 Finnish forest sector company. Due to the agreement, we are raising the lower and upper ends of our 2024 revenue guidance by €40m…”
Reporting exact game sales is usually agreed upon with the publisher, and if permission isn’t granted (I don’t believe Remedy has even asked), one can always provide guidance, for example, a range for total 2023 game sales in units or for 2023 revenue. It is a matter of will.
??? My publicly stated sales forecasts for AW2 are above the analyst consensus ???
There is an obligation to issue profit warnings related to numerical guidance. Note especially the part I bolded:
A profit warning refers to an issuer’s announcement that its result or financial position during a review period deviates from what it previously publicly anticipated or what can be reasonably inferred from its other previously disclosed information, and that the change in question is so material that it meets the definition of inside information under the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR). -Financial Supervisory Authority (Finanssivalvonta)
To my knowledge, the legality of the lack of numerical guidance has never been tested in court, and there is currently a large gray area regarding the accuracy and presentation format of the future outlooks mandatory for listed companies, which is why every company de facto forecasts however they please.
This is a tautology where Berkshire and Wincapita are put on the same line. The fact that you can always sell your shares (thank the stars for that) is no justification for poor investor communication.
Of course, a listed company’s most important stakeholder group is not employees, partners, customers, the board, or major owners, but all owners equally. Also those traders you despise. The interest of the company’s owners, i.e., all shareholders, goes sovereignly above all other stakeholder groups. This is true responsibility from management: that they are accountable to the owners.
In Finland, there are many small companies where it’s thought that it’s enough if the board and a few major owners are aware of what’s happening in the company, and public reporting is seen as a necessary evil. There even seems to be a fear of issuing profit warnings. They are afraid to tell the owners what is happening in the company they own! One must constantly try to fight against wrong operating models on all possible platforms and take back the power that rightfully belongs to investors with the ownership of even a single share. Of course, I have to accept that such thinking is idealism, but I find it disgusting if these grievances are considered desirable and even a good and responsible way to operate. All shareholders did not have to wait over a year for Control’s sales figures; it can be reasonably assumed that insider shareholders knew about the matter significantly earlier than you or I.
37 Likes
It occurred to me whether Remedy has any obligation to issue a profit warning regarding Alan Wake 2 sales, other than in a situation where it sells incredibly well and Remedy would thus recognize a lot of revenue. No other scenario for Alan Wake 2 would likely require a profit warning?
3 Likes
I think reality is not necessarily as black and white regarding Remedy’s investor communication as one might assume based on the discussion. I’ll throw in my own opinion.
Is Remedy’s current investor communication against the investor’s interest? Yes and no. Current investor communication exacerbates the information asymmetry between the insider and the average person on the street. On the other hand—fortunately, there is legislation, precedents, and actual convictions regarding the exploitation of this.
Cooperation with a publisher makes the matter problematic. The publisher likely has a greater say in the game’s financial targets—among other things, they decide on this basis whether to make a deal with the game developer and on what terms. It seems completely possible that the game company actually has quite different expectations for sales than what has been jointly defined in the agreement. Contractually, they commit to these financial goals and the terms of revenue distribution, and contractual penalties for confidentiality are likely established.
So why does the publisher not want to disclose game sales? Because the publisher business is also likely a branding business. The image of a capable publisher that conjures up successes makes game developers sign deals and some game developers accept worse terms than they perhaps should. When sales targets have not yet been met or there is still uncertainty about meeting them, communicating these is likely not in the publisher’s interest. There may, of course, be other reasons. It is not an AAA “industry standard” that a 1M milestone is always published or published first. For example, regarding H2/2023 releases, nothing more has been announced about Assassin’s Creed: Mirage other than it being the best next-gen launch. Armored Core: VI sales were announced upon reaching 2.8M copies sold. Robocop announced about 450k sales after 2 weeks. Mortal Kombat 1 released the 3M milestone.
If you’re interested in what publisher agreements can look like, you can read the article below, where a publisher publicly opens up their own contract template. And as I understand it, this isn’t about an AAA publisher. I assume that contracts for AAA games are significantly more complex.
I recommend reading it; the consequences can be very harsh for a breach of contract. The definition of confidential information looks broad to my layman’s eyes. At the same time, unless a settlement is reached between the parties for a breach of contract, a game developer’s breach of contract can, for example, lead to the cessation of royalty payments to the developer or, at worst, the transfer of IP rights to the publisher free of charge, unless the game developer returns development fees to the publisher.
This creates quite a complication for the investor communication of a publicly listed game developer.
If a game developer publishes precise sales expectations or sales data without the publisher’s permission, this can put a significant part of the game developer’s business at stake—for single-project studios, practically the entire business.
Is it therefore in the investor’s interest in this situation to get the most accurate information possible at the expense of the risk that the investment target loses a significant part of its value as a result?
This is the problem as long as a listed game company collaborates with publishers.
Let it be said at the same time, however, that if Remedy, according to its strategy, is able to grow its position in the value chain and one day publishes its developed games independently, I will be right behind @Pohjolan_Eka with tar and feathers* if information about game sales or similar important information is withheld from investors in that situation.
“Schrödinger’s non-disclosure agreement”
If one starts talking about the existence of a non-disclosure agreement (NDA), which is part of the publishing agreement, it is likely that one breaches the NDA because they are talking about the details of the publishing agreement. Thus, no one who has signed an NDA can necessarily say directly that they have signed one. I am not a legal expert, so please feel free to correct me if my interpretation is wrong.
This falls into the same bucket as whether it is in the investor’s interest for Tero to go and blurt out a detail of the publisher agreement when it could have an outrageously serious consequence at worst.
It should be noted, however, that everything except the link I published is speculation. I do not work or have never worked in the gaming industry, nor am I familiar with the details of publishing agreements, game development, or publishing operations other than what I have come across in connection with my investing hobby, such as the article I linked.
*Metaphorically.
The image of a tarred-and-feathered outlaw remains a metaphor for severe public criticism (Wikipedia)
34 Likes
I feel compelled to comment a bit more on the release of sales figures, as I didn’t notice anyone picking up on the reasons Tero mentioned—perhaps somewhat between the lines—during the roast. Tero says they have no need to “toot their own horn” just yet, unlike some others. So, the game is selling according to expectations, and with the Game Awards coming up—potentially some trophies there—along with New Game+, the announcement of sales figures can be kept in the marketing arsenal and deployed once the buzz around the game otherwise starts to fade. It sounds like there’s an actual marketing strategy behind this, rather than just pulling strings at random ;D
33 Likes
I actually noticed the exact same thing, and looking at it optimistically, it’s part of the PR and marketing plan: the game is launched late in the year, reviews are excellent and build hype, and right after that, Game of the Year listings and award shortlists start coming in, and the game seems to be garnering earned media quite nicely anyway. After the “awards fatigue” and everything else, the PR coverage will probably start to fade gradually, and something more will be needed at that stage.
One could ask whether reporting great sales figures at this point would have brought significant additional demand on top of the excellent reviews and visibility, or would these two things have been bundled together, and the actual large-scale additional effect would have been nothing more than a momentary boost to the share price? I don’t know, but someone at Remedy and Epic surely knows something about optimizing game PR and the sales tail.
The pessimistic view is, of course, that the disclosure of sales figures is being avoided by citing contractual intricacies, and the hype is mainly just nice social media buzz, but no cash will start accumulating in Remedy’s account for a while, or at least not as expected. Having worked in a somewhat similar field, I know from experience that so-called “success communications X time after a product launch” are pretty standard, so in that sense, there is a bit of a question mark in the air when the commentary is this vague.
8 Likes
Last-minute TGA preview.
Although the situation was level a couple of days ago, Baldur’s Gate 3 has unfortunately pulled ahead.
Overall Game of the Year award standings before the TGAs:
Baldur’s Gate 3 - 18 (Media Outlets: 14 | Readers’ Choice: 4)
Alan Wake 2 - 8 (Media Outlets: 7 | Readers’ Choice: 1)
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 7 (Media Outlets: 7 | Readers’ Choice: 0)
The last 48 hours have thus been a display of dominance for Baldur’s Gate 3. Unfortunately, it also won GameSpot’s GOTY. This was an important battle, as they were one of the few major gaming media outlets that gave Alan Wake 2 a perfect 10/10 critic review.
On the other hand, being level with Zelda (at this early stage) is something that one wouldn’t have immediately believed just a few months ago 
Let’s see what the night brings.
Source: (1)
18 Likes
My prediction is that AW2 will pick up a few awards, but GOTY will go to the favorite (Baldur’s Gate 3). Well, it’ll all be clear in a few hours; hopefully I’m wrong.
1 Like
Best Narrative: Alan Wake 2
At least one trophy secured.
64 Likes
“And with all due to respect to Halsey, Sting, and Imagine Dragons, this lineup made every musical guest from previous years look like babies.”
I really have to take my hat off to our local talent. It’s not easy to stand out in that crowd. Impressive.
34 Likes
42 Likes
Best Game Direction: Alan Wake 2
- count so far : 3
55 Likes
GOTY: Baldur’s Gate 3
Pretty much as expected.
But three trophies in this competition is definitely not a bad performance. 
- You could even say it won in the categories where it was fully justified, and missed out on the trophy when there was an arguably better candidate available. Perhaps the trophy for sound design could still have been winnable, but that’s how it went this time.
69 Likes
Analyst’s morning report comments. 
24 Likes
Remedy Entertainment Plc Press Release Dec 8, 2023 at 8:00 a.m.
New Game Plus Mode for the Award-Winning Alan Wake 2 to Be Released on Dec 11
The critically acclaimed sequel won several awards at The Game Awards, including Best Narrative and Best Direction.
Remedy Entertainment and Epic Games Publishing have today announced that “The Final Draft”, the highly anticipated New Game Plus mode for Alan Wake 2, will be available on all platforms on Dec 11. The new free update comes after Alan Wake 2 won the awards for Best Game Direction, Best Narrative, and Best Art Direction at The Game Awards, where it was the most nominated game of the event.
At the ceremony, the Finnish band Poets of the Fall performed as the fictional band Old Gods of Asgard, performing their viral hit Herald of Darkness from Alan Wake 2. Alan Wake actors Ilkka Villi and Matthew Porretta took to the stage to perform alongside Remedy’s Creative Director Sam Lake (Sami Järvi) and actor David Harewood, recreating a memorable scene from the game itself.
“The Final Draft” contains a new ending for the story of Alan Wake 2, which is sure to spark speculation and theories among dedicated fans. New story elements can also be found in the form of videos and manuscript pages added to the New Game Plus experience. Unlocking the New Game Plus mode and experiencing “The Final Draft” requires one completed playthrough of Alan Wake 2. Players retain all weapons and character upgrades earned during their first playthrough. These will be necessary as players attempt to meet the extreme challenge of the new Nightmare Difficulty level. Players must prepare for intensified enemies that will push their skills to the limit.
Alan Wake 2 takes players into a psychological horror story from the perspectives of two playable characters. Saga Anderson risks her life to solve a gruesome murder mystery in the Pacific Northwest, while Alan Wake tries to rewrite his reality to escape the horror-filled Dark Place of New York.
Watch the Alan Wake 2 Accolades trailer
Alan Wake 2 fully utilizes the power of modern gaming consoles and PCs. Powered by the Northlight engine developed by Remedy Entertainment, players encounter terrifying supernatural enemies in desperate situations filled with suspense and unexpected twists. Saga Anderson and Alan Wake are two heroes in two separate realities, connected in ways that neither can understand.
40 Likes
Even in that press release, nothing was mentioned about sales volumes, and if they are unable to state that the AAA game has finally sold over a million copies, then my own interpretation is still that sales are below that, even though the expectation is for over 2 million copies sold this year.
1 Like
My take is that people are making a bit too much of a fuss right now about these sales figures. And Tero’s performance in the Roast.
Tero handled the Roast professionally. Verpu could perhaps have been even meaner. Regarding the sales figures, it’s perfectly natural for a listed company to disclose them when the time is right, i.e., in the next interim report. Unless there is something truly extraordinary about the sales figures that would significantly and unusually impact the share price in one direction or another.
At this stage, I consider it very likely that sales are good. Not GTA-level, but well above Control.
As Tero explained in the Roast, it’s pointless to give snapshots of the figures that are too brief, as they can fluctuate significantly, especially in the early stages of a release — when discounts, award ceremonies, and marketing campaigns are still in the pipeline.
And Tero did give a little something away with his demeanor and that grin.
29 Likes