Yeah, I had some poor word choices when I re-read the text.
The main points of the text were probably understood, though.
I’m on a rough streak right now in my own football bets, whereas with tailing, I’m having several of my best days in a row. Last night might have been the best ever so far.
It’s much easier to think rationally when you treat the whole thing through units and percentages. You’re spot on!
Which professionals are you tailing?
I tried tailing myself once, but I joined Valiovihje at a bad time, and over a year and a half, I took some losses. This was also complicated by the fact that I rarely managed to snag the tipped odds on Pinnacle, as the odds dropped quickly because of other tailers.
I have been thinking about trying tailing again in the future; for example, the NHL-focused Von Kilvio Consulting had at least shown good results before last season (there is a dedicated thread for this service on Ylikerroin).
To get anywhere with tailing, you really need to be part of a small group. I’ve been in a few myself, and there was no way to catch those odds on Pinnacle. You’d get a huge advantage in tailing if you could bet with the small bookies, but my options have already narrowed down significantly due to stake limits.
I hope this thread stays active. Betting is a truly underrated form of investment. In the future, I’ll try to share my own thoughts here about betting as an investment form. Personally, I’ve gradually buried the idea of going professional, but it certainly provides a nice side income.
To clarify regarding tailing, I’ve been involved in tip services that had around 30 clients. That is far too many. But of course, the price of the service goes up if the number of members is restricted.
From a tipster’s (especially a commercial one) perspective, it is problematic that their own stake causes the odds to drop. One has to consider whether to place the bet themselves first and drop the odds, or to tip first and place the bet immediately after, which causes the odds to drop before followers have a chance to bet. The first approach is fair, but it weakens the track record of the tipped bets. The latter, on the other hand, is less fair as followers cannot practically get the quoted odds, but the ROI of the tips remains better.
This offers an easy way to always win. You always bet against your own team, so you either get the satisfaction of your team winning or, in the event of a loss, a betting win, which surely brings some pleasure as well.
Yes, matched betting practically requires placing lay bets on a betting exchange, especially if it’s a basic 1x2 market. At least it makes things much easier and leaves you with more money.
I’ve played through all the most reliable sites myself and done the same for family members and friends, for example. Reliability usually correlates with wagering requirements—for instance, a Unibet bonus might be x4, while less reliable sites might be x12-16. I haven’t bothered getting involved with those in case of bad luck where you have to complete the full turnover and suddenly end up with a few grand stuck when you need to withdraw.
Previously, deposit bonus offers would pop up on accounts occasionally, but this year there have been hardly any at all, and the terms are often weaker too.
I hadn’t even thought about being able to take advantage of that “early payout.” It’s not exactly arbitrage like normal matched betting, since it requires that substantial lead and then a comeback, but it’s massively +EV. Thanks for the tip, I’ll have to continue the hobby with this approach.
As I recall, at least Nordicbet used to advertise that early payout; does @Nagilny1 remember how that early payout has fared with these bigger bookies?
2020-2021 EP/Early Payout was available at Betsson’s brands. Bet365 has always had it, though limits are applied quickly and the odds are poor as well.
Now it is actually in use at Maltix Limited’s bookies (don’t take welcome or other wagering bonuses from them) and at Ninjacasino (withdrawals instantly to your account).
It’s worth downloading the Flashscore app to your phone and starring/favoriting the EP matches, so you get goal notifications on your phone. No need to keep staring at the matches otherwise.
Regarding odds, you should accept a maximum 0.01 difference compared to the exchange lay bet; this applies to odds under 2.0. For higher odds, a 0.02 difference is perfectly fine.
Right now, for example, Crystal Palace is available at 2.2/2.2, along with others at a 0.01 difference.
By the way, if you want to snag easy weekly bonuses with a smaller bankroll:
If you turn those into a weekly routine, you can already get hundreds in easy monthly income 
In matched betting, you place lay bets on Betfair Exchange for every bet; it’s worth going there to set your commission plan from 6% → 2%.
Suitable matches can be found quickly from the top leagues, and the lay bet stake is calculated with a matched betting calculator (found on Google). For free bets, set the bet type to free bet (SNR), except for Coolbet free bets, which use the free bet SR setting.
I won’t go into my own situation in more detail here publicly, but I want to continue to remind everyone that in the betting world, there is no such thing as free or risk-free money. Not even when you think it is risk-free. So, I recommend being prepared for the fact that you can lose all your money even in those bonus/cashback schemes, even if you aren’t doing anything directly illegal per se. Those campaigns were not created so that players could exploit them and make so-called free and guaranteed money. If a company notices a player taking advantage of them, they will intervene very quickly. @Nagilny1’s example certainly doesn’t mean that everyone could do that forever without “getting caught.”
In potential dispute or problem situations, you can certainly turn to the licensing authority, but it usually doesn’t help, as betting companies have terms and conditions they can invoke. And it doesn’t make sense for any individual player to take legal action unless very large sums of money are involved.
Just out of interest, which outfit do you have your money stuck in?
A matched bettor can quite easily disguise themselves as a recreational player as well; in industry slang, this is called:
Go to the bookie with a few random bets, e.g., twenty euros on Chelsea, 15e on Arsu (Arsenal), 25e on City. Naturally, place a lay bet for each on the exchange. Total costs maybe 2e.
If you take a welcome offer, don’t try to lose it to the exchange in one go as instructed in traditional matched betting (entire balance + bonus balance on a single bet for a draw), but instead wager it more slowly, e.g., with 50-100e stakes like a “recreational player” might do. It’s definitely worth using a matched betting calculator to see if the bonus has a positive EV even after wagering. (Try the calculator with the maximum wagering amount using, for example, 1.8/1.82 odds and subtract the negative profit shown in red from the bonus’s nominal value. For example, from an 8 x bonus (8x100e) wagering, you’d be left with 100-16e = 84e profit. Always read the bonus terms for the maximum stake, wagering requirement, whether it applies to the bonus or the bonus AND the deposit, and if single bets are eligible.)
Take weekly free bets/cashbacks normally and throw in “mug bets” once or twice a week as well, with lay bets too, of course.
Spin some low-variance and high-RTP casino slots (e.g., Hotline, which has cool music too :D) maybe once a week with a small stake. At the live casino, you can also play blackjack with perfect strategy, which has a payout percentage of around 97-98% if I recall correctly, meaning it’s almost ±0.
I’ve personally played on Coolbet, Ninjacasino, Paf, and iBet for 2-4 years each. Relatively restrictive limits have already been applied to all of them, and both Ninja and Coolbet gave me bonus bans at one point, but nowadays I still receive bonuses from all of them.
Of course, you should be aware of the risks, but losing a few hundred won’t break most people’s finances. The risk is small anyway with those weekly free bets etc., because they rarely even have a wagering requirement, at least not a large one.
I’ve been doing this for many years, and so have many friends without major issues. On top of that, there are the Ylikerroin forum members who have been running the same routine in even larger numbers by following my instructions. The evidence can be found here. Of course, some beginners fall into the classic trap, which is depositing in a frenzy to a shady Curacao-licensed bookie and losing their money. I’ve lost a few hundred myself, but I deposited into a couple of such outfits while being aware of the risks.
A few more words about the “patience” of betting companies/sites toward winning players.
A friend was about €30k in profit in less than a year from Betsafe due to an early payout campaign when the limits hit. Total bets were worth about €150k. Of course, Betsafe is part of the Betsson Group, so they have the reserves to pay out winnings.
I personally got partial limits on iBet after 4-5 months of weekly VIP bonuses (nearly every week I got a €300-500 bonus, though wagering it required some work with a max €50 bet). I was up about €20k when the limits hit. As far as I know, iBet is a lesser-known (meaning smaller) outfit in this industry, so their patience lasted surprisingly long too. They still throw me two €20 free bets every week (the free bet in the image came as an extra today). So there are no bonus bans there yet.
Those are just the most blatant examples.
So, some of those firms are willing to tolerate matched bettors for quite a long time 
I’m sure they are aware of “what kind of player I am.”
And so what if the limits hit? As long as you don’t have an active bonus wagering requirement, you can always withdraw the money.
Too large wagering requirements should, of course, be avoided. The most legendary story from my betting career comes to mind:
A previously mentioned friend once received a €500 free bet from Betsafe’s VIP club due to his activity. He then placed the €500 free bet on a draw at odds of 7.5, with the goal of losing the bet and winning the lay bet on the exchange (there’s no way a Danish team would manage a draw away against a Serie A side, definitely not!).
Well, that was the one time they did, and the bet won at Betsafe. To withdraw the winnings, the net profit from the free bet had to be wagered 3 times. So, it was a turnover requirement of just under ten grand. The guy was sweating pretty hard and had to borrow a couple of grand from yours truly for the lay bets, but in the end, everything turned out better than well, as the wagering bets brought in nice extra profits thanks to an early payout campaign
I have very different experiences with the mentioned Betsafe. They let me place a few dozen bets, after which the limits kicked in. It has been a decade since then, though.
A little update. Bankroll is currently around 5k, and I intend to join the early cash out and bonus hunting efforts. I’ve been collecting bonuses from a few sites (~€500 in a few days).
Nothing special about it; I’ve just been placing a €200 bet on several sites right away and then a lay bet on the exchange. I haven’t had to place a second bet on the same site even once.
Just created an account on Ibet and started collecting the bonus. The maximum stake there is €35, so you can’t get it out with a single bet.
I’ve been “practicing” early cash outs with a bankroll of a few hundred so that there are no surprises with a large bankroll. There’s nothing complicated about it. Mainly using exchange + Ninjacasino. Major football leagues + NBA + NHL are in use. Ninja gives a max of €40 (20% of losses) cashback on NHL and NBA bets. A small amount, so to speak, but €2k a year in “easy money.”
Normal bets have taken a backseat since this takes time and the bankroll is tied up on these sites. I do still tail occasionally, but the number of bets is a tenth of what it was a month ago.
I’ll update the situation at the end of the year on how much the ~5k bankroll has changed (grown).
E: Well, it certainly didn’t start off badly. Just one game today brought in about €350 in profit. Got some really nice lay bets for Champions League games at the same odds, or even lower.
That Ninja NHL & NBA cashback is a weekly changing campaign. Sometimes for football, sometimes for domestic hockey, sometimes for US leagues, etc.
The early payout train just keeps on chugging along. Yesterday was a “pretty good” betting day for our group. About 5-7 active bettors, we all place early payout bets. The first one grabbed a thousand-euro cash out when ManU went 0-2 up away against Galatasaray. Apparently, his bet was 3k + a lay bet. Costs were a few dozen. A couple of other friends both grabbed 400-500e each, I only got 260e even though I was waiting for a goal to narrow the lead (due to stake limits).
Then came Benfica-Inter. Benfica had easy value odds compared to the exchange lay bet, so practically free money even without any cash outs. That’s also why almost all of us put Benfica on the slip. Surprisingly, Benfica even happened to go up 2-0. Again, a couple of guys grabbed 400-500e cash outs when Benfica went to a 2-0 lead. Me and a friend stayed to wait. Well, it even went to 3-0 (bad thing..), but we had strong faith that Inter would still manage to score one or two.
Well, Inter started scoring those goals in the 2nd half. I grabbed a 240e cash out at 3-2, a friend waited with his 650e stake until the 3-3 situation, at which point he cashed out 1300e. No one had any costs for this match because it was a value odds situation.
So with pretty minimal risk and cost, you can get some quite nice returns 
One person had a nearly 1500e day, another a 1700e day. A third one had a thousand-euro day. I only had a 500e day because of limits. Tax-free. With relatively little effort.
Of course, it all ends eventually with limits etc., but I’ve been able to continue this game in Maltix Limited’s brands for over half a year without problems. Ninja Casino already has partial limits from past years’ arbitrage.
I definitely agree. You can really make money with these European games especially.
Even today, there are 32 games across four different kick-off times, so you can get a lot of bets in. There were many games where you could get a guaranteed mini-profit because the odds for the hedge bet were ~0.05 lower.
Yesterday, I ended up making ~400e myself from just one single game.
There have indeed been some good games lately from an early payout perspective. I’ve cautiously joined in myself. However, I don’t dare to get involved in any larger-scale operations at the moment for certain reasons.
I’m still warning everyone about the risks associated with matched betting if/when the sums of money grow large. It’s a particularly big risk if you’re constantly betting on the same markets with friends. In the worst-case scenario, there can be other consequences besides just account limits. It’s worth reading the rules of all sites carefully and considering all the measures they might potentially take if the shit hits the fan.
Even though the Ylikerroin forum is good and has many skilled players who play with big money, I can tell you that the grimmest fates of the gambling world don’t usually end up being told there. By the time a gambling company’s army of lawyers is after you, the only option is usually to eventually sign some kind of NDA (Non-Disclosure Agreement) just to get at least some of your money back.
The only problematic case in Finland that I know has reached the public eye is the Pauli Äyräs case. However, not everyone is a semi-famous professional poker player. If you’re a “nobody” doing matched betting (i.e., making your money by exploiting odds and/or bookmaker campaigns), your chances of fighting a battle through the media are very slim.
What hedge bets did you use in these matches? 
Or rather, I was wondering, what if for example Gala had taken the lead and the game ended 3-3, how could this have been made risk-free?
It depends on the odds you played at. If you get lower odds for the counter-bet, the bet is risk-free because regardless of the outcome, you’ll make a small profit. If the odds for the counter-bet are higher, you’ll take a bit of a hit.