Betting as an investment

Alternative Investments
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Just for fun, I checked the payout percentages from a domestic gaming company’s website at the end of the year. In 2022, the payout percentages are:

|Pitkäveto (Fixed-odds betting)|115.94 %|191 bets|

|Tulosveto (Correct score betting)|185.93 %|57 bets|

These are excellent figures indeed. :smiley: In addition to these, I have played on a few other betting sites. A ridiculously good payout percentage in Tulosveto (Correct score betting), but the number of bets is also low. On average, I have only placed a bet once a week.

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I don’t know what it is, but even though sports betting has caused a 10-15% dent in my betting account balance every year, I just keep doing it anyway.
Maybe individual big wins get overemphasized and play a major role in the subconscious, which encourages chasing more of the same. Still, the overall result is always at least 10 percent in the red every year.

I just decided while reading this thread that in 2023, zero euros will be spent on betting. Let’s just consider that past 10-15 percent as payment for sports entertainment—a sort of “experience fee” for the extra excitement.

Merry Christmas and good bets!

P.S. Isn’t it true, though, that if you realize a 30 percent smaller loss from Veikkaus, you’ve already done better than average? :wink:

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The direction of the stock market is a complete mystery, so I have made the decision to add sports betting to my bankroll next year. We’ll see next year whether it was a stupid or a sensible decision. I am subscribing to (paid) betting recommendations and from now on, I will only bet on sports I understand – utilizing the Kelly criterion. I won’t put a single cent into games of chance.

Let’s set a target ROI of 115% for the whole year, including the cost of the tips. Let’s see how it goes for me.

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I’d say a 115% return is extremely ambitious and requires a significant amount of luck over any substantial volume of bets. You should think of the cost of tips like fund management fees. Calculate how large your bankroll needs to be for buying tips to make sense, or whether it’s better to invest time in making your own estimates. Are you willing to pay fees amounting to several percentage points? There are also plenty of sellers of junk in the tipping business. You should demand an airtight track record of thousands of bets from paid tipsters.

The Kelly Criterion is a helpful tool, but you must remember that even the best bettor’s or tipster’s estimates are just probability estimates, not absolute probabilities. Consequently, the Kelly Criterion may suggest stakes that are too high, and stake limits can quickly become an issue for larger bankrolls in individual bets where the estimate differs significantly from the odds. This, of course, depends on the sport, the league, and the bookmakers.

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When playing major leagues, a 115% return after expenses is not a realistic payout percentage. I would say that 105% would already be good. You can reach better percentages by playing small leagues/sports, but then it’s hard to get your stakes in.

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https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/uskomaton-huijaus-meni-taydesta-venajalla-joukko-intialaisia-esitti-pelaavansa-paasarjatason-otteluita/8468320

Small leagues also carry these kinds of risks.

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Many good points from you all!

Admittedly, that 115 target is high, but I’ve exceeded it in many years. The Kelly criterion still serves as a tool, not an absolute guideline.

I buy tips from services that I’ve become familiar with over the years. Of course, there are risks involved, just as there are with the stock market.

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Yeah, and you don’t need to aim for high return percentages in betting IMO. If you can keep the bankroll turning over at a good pace, the most important thing is that the return % > 100, and the money will definitely come in.

I’ve started to become very interested in betting as an “investment”. It’s a nice way to combine math and sports. My betting bankroll is still very minimal, but I plan to grow it from my salary alongside my stock investments.

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72

Oh man, the golden 90s come to mind. Back when even going to high school was funded by “Veikkaus dividends” :grin:
Even though we were reliant on the domestic operator back then, it had its upsides. With the help of neighbors’ satellite channels, it was actually easy to stay ahead of Veikkaus’s knowledge of, for example, British football and many other sports.
Like the previous writer, I’ve always been fascinated by the combination of math and sports in betting. The long-simmering idea of returning to the game on a small scale has certainly not faded, despite crises and scammy markets. Compared to other forms of investing, what fascinates me about betting is its “detachment” (ignoring match-fixing, etc.), so that not every ship stuck sideways in a canal or world conqueror coming from the east messes up the table. Compared to my youth, there might now be an opportunity to build a decent-sized bankroll, where a 105% return could provide a nice little extra slice.

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I singled out this point because I immediately thought of the flu, the club’s financial troubles, the goalie’s personal life crises, backup skates for the backup skates, etc.—factors outside the performance itself that affect betting :sweat_smile:. Generally, it feels like in these regular-season sports there are a lot of so-called “off-games,” meaning depending on who is going through a harder training phase, etc., a clear favorite can suddenly lose 6-0 and then win the next one 6-0.

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Sure, you could think that they are to some extent external to the performance itself, but having played several sports myself (and even lost my skates once), I still view those as things that are part of the sport, because we are human.
They obviously affect the outcome, but they are still more like “normal things”.
Those will disappear at the point when robots play, say, hockey on our behalf :grin:
Nowadays, knowing about these things doesn’t necessarily give you as much of an advantage against the bookmakers because of the internet. But in sports, insider information has always been an edge and always will be :slight_smile:

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Betting is a funny “sport” in that it is often associated with the lottery and such.

It is true that the majority of players are loss-making, but being profitable doesn’t require anything impossible.

You find a sport/league where you can somehow find an edge compared to the market. Few bettors are better informed about the Premier League than the market, but something like the Veikkausliiga or Ykkönen are already significantly easier leagues to be profitable in.

Personally, I’ve caught the lower football leagues in my net. I watch too many games, so I tend to have a lot of information.

Knowledge of the sport, i.e., “gut feeling,” is rarely enough for profitability. Statistics/probabilities are needed to find value in bets. Personally, I run a relatively basic Excel for probabilities, though I don’t place bets purely based on my own calculations.

Over/under bets and Asian handicap are my main betting markets, specifically in so-called smaller football leagues.

The main thing for me is to keep the return % > 102 and to turnover the bankroll at a good pace. If the bankroll turns over quickly, just being positive is enough to get nice annual returns. I also have a few people I tail. The internet is full of “professionals” who nonetheless fail to make a profit for their clients. It’s worth choosing who to follow carefully.

I also dabble in arbs (arbitrage) occasionally.

There is still plenty of “free money” being given out through various site bonuses, but I’m in no hurry to collect them. However, the intention is to gradually grow the bankroll with their help.

My own football bets have gone excellently so far this season, with approx. 150 bets and a return % of 105.7. CLV (Closing Line Value) has been positive in about 65% of the bets, which is a good figure at least for me.

It’s a long road to turning professional, but it has become a small dream of mine. There is a lot to learn, but that is not a negative thing. Betting certainly teaches you a lot about your own character. If big losing weekends don’t weigh on your mind, you can surely handle the negative moments of everyday life.

E: Betting is also very similar compared to investing/trading. Everyone has losses, and many of them, and that is the separating factor between the wheat and the chaff. Good bettors and traders do not let losses get inside their heads; they understand them as part of the process. In betting, people often talk about variance.

Even if you place only good bets over the weekend (nice CLVs etc.), the overall result can still be a major loss. A losing bettor will at that point increase their stakes to win back the losses. NOT LIKE THIS!!!

Bankroll management is the be-all and end-all. My own maximum stakes per bet are approx. 2% of the bankroll, and usually, I hover between 1–1.5%. No matter how much I take a beating, the bankroll will not evaporate.

In betting, it is important to know how to be an unemotional person. That also applies well to investing. It’s not worth falling in love with those stocks. Personally, I try to avoid betting on my own favorite teams’ games because there tends to be too much emotion involved when making the decision.

I’ll have to update this thread more as time goes on and more results come in. A very interesting topic in my opinion. Feel free to share your thoughts here as well, and perhaps your own results.

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76

I recommend matched betting if you’re interested in free money. Me and a few friends have each made tens of thousands with this over a few years, tax-free from our home computers. Google matched betting if you don’t believe me :wink:

Basic idea: we strategically grab bonuses offered by betting companies and get almost the full value of the bonus (e.g., €90 from a €100 bonus) into our pockets by placing lay bets on Betfair Exchange.

Large monthly profits of a few thousand can currently be reached after the easy sign-up bonuses and initial months through the Early Payout promotion (which is currently available at Ninja Casino, Light Casino, Betinia, Zulabet, Campobet, and Bet365 (not such good odds)), where a bet is considered a winner as soon as the score reaches 2-0. At that point, you can cash out the remaining part of the lay bet, or wait for a 2-1 goal and cash out even bigger. It’s actually really simple. Of course, it takes some time.

Below are some links that look like ads but aren’t :smiley:

There is also a longer blog in Finnish with clear instructions and more details on different types of matched betting. The link is available upon request.

This unusual but profitable hobby/side hustle will likely end by Jan 1, 2026, at the latest, when the “Swedish model”—the licensing model for betting companies—is implemented in Finland. In Sweden, bookies are, as I understand it, only allowed to offer one bonus per customer ever.

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Thanks for those links :hugs:

I’ve heard about the topic before, but I haven’t read enough. Once I get my own wagering requirements cleared, I’ll probably have to adopt that strategy to boost my bankroll even faster starting out.

How big of a bankroll have you had to make thousands a month? Or are there just a lot of bets?

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In the past, you could get a 3-4k/month return even with a bankroll under 10k risk-free thanks to “gold mine” bookmakers and/or VIP clubs, but these days, to my knowledge, you can mainly only get that through the Early Payout promotion. Sure, you can still get into good VIP clubs at various bookies, but it’s pretty much down to luck. On the other hand, the more you rake, the more leaves stick to the net. At least that’s how it’s been for me. You have to earn your good luck.

It’s a bit drier in terms of bonuses than before; surely my own spreading of the gospel of matched betting has something to do with it..

Personally, I’m currently operating with a betting bankroll of about 20-35k, mainly on the Early Payout promotion, which of course makes things easier and faster, but you can go far with a 5-10k bankroll too, and even with under 5k you can get a good start. Operating with a small or relatively small bankroll helps if you strategically time the weekend games according to their start times and mainly use Ninjacasino, where you get instant withdrawals to your account.. For the Early Payout promotion, I take as many matches as I can get with reasonable costs, usually 20-35. Only top-5 leagues qualify for that promotion.

You can start matched betting itself with a bankroll of just a couple of hundred, if you start with, say, 10-30e free bets/cashbacks.

It would be good to have a couple of grand for the bigger ones, e.g., Coolbet’s 150e welcome bonus, so you can complete the wagering requirements if necessary. Usually, you don’t really need to wager much in those, as the goal is to lose the first bet right off the bat with high odds, so that the lay bet on the exchange wins at Betfair (meaning you don’t have to worry about the bookie’s wagering requirements) and you get the profit (plus the lay bet’s stake) into your Betfair account immediately.

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I’d like to point out that there’s no such thing as free money in the betting world either. Matched betting also involves risks, as betting companies have their own tools for tracking players.

  • You may face strict stake limits, which can result in failing to complete bonus wagering requirements within the given timeframe. Limits can be triggered by a large win during the wagering period or otherwise suspicious betting behavior.

  • Differences in betting companies’ rules for ambiguous situations. Different companies may have different interpretations of, for example, situations where the match in question is suspended or awarded as a walkover victory to the other team. In the worst-case scenario, you could lose both bets and your entire bankroll.

  • You might be suspected of syndicate betting, which could, at least in theory, lead to consequences other than just your account being closed.

  • In the case of large winnings, some companies may block or complicate withdrawals through various means. For example, they might claim to be performing a “routine account audit” and cite their regulatory obligations (i.e., preventing money laundering, etc.). The account may eventually be frozen or closed without further explanation.

The risks are particularly high if you place a counter-bet on different gaming sites owned by the same betting company. In that case, the scheme will almost certainly fail at some point.

It’s worth remembering that, above all, the purpose of betting companies is to generate profit. If a player starts making too much money, they will eventually be reined in. If I were you, @Jug, I would stop before things go south sooner or later.

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Yeah, it’s probably not worth doing matched betting indefinitely.

But would you personally see it as a sensible way to grow your bankroll at the start? Doing lay bets specifically on a betting exchange, so you don’t accidentally end up betting on different platforms.

Or are you strictly against that method? There’s no such thing as free money, of course, but there are definitely opportunities there. You sound experienced, so it would be nice to hear some tips. :raising_hands:t2:

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Those risks are known.

You can mitigate risks quite well by doing background research on bookmakers, for example, by Googling others’ experiences with ”ylikerroin + bookmaker name” or by reading bookmaker reviews on Askgamblers.

The shadiest bookies should obviously be avoided, which can certainly be challenging for a beginner. I’ve had a few hundred euros permanently stuck with bookmakers over the course of four years, and I’ve created accounts on an estimated 70+ betting sites. I’ve received stake limits on most of those, but even full stake limits don’t mean you can’t withdraw your money. Some bookies, however, limit players ridiculously even during the wagering of the welcome bonus (e.g., Maltix Limited’s Lightcasino, Betinia, Zulabet, and Campobet, which I mentioned in a previous post), so it’s not worth taking the welcome offer, let alone reload wagering bonuses from them. The Early Payout campaign works well, though, because it has no wagering requirements.

Bookmakers with an MGA license are mostly reliable (and tax-free) compared to Curacao-licensed companies.

I am aware of the risks involved and will continue playing. Even if I were to lose a few thousand, it wouldn’t affect the big picture much; after all, I’ve already accumulated nearly 80k in profit.

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You can build up your bankroll quite well specifically with welcome bonuses, as long as you choose reliable bookmakers and read the bonus terms. Welcome offer terms have been tightened in recent years, but you can still find at least a grand’s worth of good welcome offers.

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Excellent post overall. :slight_smile: But I’d take issue with that choice of words. No one is emotionless, and I don’t see the point in striving for that in betting any more than in investing. :thinking: But a bettor should be analytical. And you have to be able to handle long losing streaks, even though there is hardly a bettor whose mood wouldn’t be affected by winning or losing streaks. It can help a bit to think of the euros in your bankroll as chips rather than money, and betting as a game meant to maximize bankroll growth with the lowest possible risk.

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