United Bankers - Real Asset Manager

Here’s a Kauppalehti news article about the matter. At the time of writing, you can still get in at a very reasonable price.
Edit: Did that “reasonable price” last about ten minutes? :smiley: The stock’s liquidity is absolutely terrible, and even small purchases send the price swinging wildly. The rest of the stock market is currently experiencing a rare and unpleasant down day, so we’re really beating the index by a lot here.

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I wonder if Kauppalehti journalists are allowed to own the stocks they write about :thinking:? Because the Kauppalehti effect is probably the single biggest driver of individual stocks in Finland.

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The German boys are trying hard to buy, but the stock just isn’t coming loose this cheap :kissing_heart: Goldman Sachs is mainly the seller. Nonneroholdi holds!

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United Bankers has finally moved to the main list, and the share price has also risen nicely during this listing hype. At the same time, shareholders have faced a positive problem in recent weeks: Should they cash in on the rise immediately or wait for a possible positive surprise (posari) in the autumn?

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This felt like quite an eventful day, with some rando buying a couple of thousand shares @ 8.70€ (~17.5k€). Usually, the volume has been two or three digits :grin:

Well, 1.5 months until we hear more (the half-year report is published on August 26th).

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I took an advance look at the earnings report and this time chose UB Rahoitus’s (UB Financing’s) crowdfunding platform as the subject of closer examination. On this crowdfunding platform, United Bankers offers loans to SMEs at a reasonable interest rate and provides investors with the opportunity to invest in corporate loans. UB receives a 1-2% commission from the loan capital revolving on the crowdfunding platform, which, in my estimation, is closer to the lower end of the range than the upper end. Here is some data on the loans granted by the crowdfunding platform:

Year 2016: €1,969,420
Year 2017: €4,292,000
Year 2018: €8,210,000
Year 2019: €7,003,020

First 7 months of 2019: €4,440,000
First 7 months of 2020: €2,053,480

As can be seen above, recent development has been going in the wrong direction, and this year is shaping up to be very weak. In my opinion, the problems of UB’s crowdfunding platform can be mirrored by the problems experienced by other crowdfunding platforms, such as Fellow Finance, this year. Fortunately, it is ultimately a very small part of the company’s business.

Inderes’ comprehensive report from March suggests that the company might divest the crowdfunding platform, which, based on this data, sounds like a sensible solution:

The revenue of UB Rahoitus is, in our understanding, around €1 million, and we estimate that the operation is unprofitable with current loan volumes. The crowdfunding platform as an asset is, in our opinion, very interesting, but outside UB’s core expertise. We would not be surprised if UB divested UB Rahoitus at some point.

Would it be possible to get a quick comment from @Sauli_Vilen on how much money the company could make from selling UB Rahoitus, or is it more likely that the ‘divestment’ would happen by winding down the unprofitable services?

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UB pre-comment out: United Bankers H1 keskiviikkona: Yhtiö tekee koronan keskellä erittäin vahvan tuloksen - Inderes

Regarding UB Rahoitus (UB Finance), I still consider it highly likely that UB will divest it. Finance is not UB’s core business, and the development of UB Finance has been lackluster. The sale price will likely be quite small, as regulatory changes, in particular, have significantly weakened its potential.

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United Bankers H1’20: Best result ever!
Need I say more :star_struck::star_struck::star_struck:

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Purchases

Date
27.08.2020

Company
United Bankers

Declarant
Rasmus Finnilä

Type
Acquisition

Price
9.1

Volume
10000

Total
91 000 EUR

Date
27.08.2020

Company
United Bankers

Declarant
Lennart Robertsson

Type
Acquisition

Price
9.1

Volume
1300

Total
11 830 EUR

Date
27.08.2020

Company
United Bankers

Declarant
Patrick Anderson

Type
Acquisition

Price
9.25

Volume
2900

Total
26 825 EUR

It is said that when management sells, the reason can be anything, but management buys for only one reason.
Positive earnings warning at the end of the year? :money_mouth_face:

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Asunmaa Antti 30,000 pcs

Name: Asunmaa, Antti
Position: Member/deputy member of the Board
Date of transaction: 2020-08-28
Trading venue: NASDAQ HELSINKI LTD (XHEL)
Instrument type: SHARE
ISIN: FI4000081427
Nature of transaction: ACQUISITION

Detailed information about transactions
(1): Volume: 30,000 Unit price: 9.2 EUR

The management just keeps buying even though we are almost at ATH (all-time high) levels. Investors, however, are not interested in UB :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

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Yes, the year-end positive earnings warning is already a given, as long as the market doesn’t significantly sour from here. That positive earnings warning is already included in our forecasts, so it shouldn’t cause any forecast changes.

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UB extensive report published:
https://www.inderes.fi/fi/suorittamisessa-tehty-selkea-tasokorjaus

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UB:s new Thales Argo equity fund is about to commence operations

  • The first subscription date for the fund is November 30, and the fund’s investment activities will start on December 1, 2020.

About the fund’s strategy

  • A global equity fund that seeks companies with significant long-term growth potential for its portfolio. The fund’s strategy is a so-called value investing strategy.
  • We utilize our insight by concentrating investments in normal conditions on approximately 10–12 stocks. (information from UB’s Thales Argo fund website link)

Today, the portfolio management team of the Thales Argo fund was announced:
https://www.inderes.fi/fi/tiedotteet/united-bankers-oyj-palkittu-ernst-gronblom-aloittaa-uuden-ub-thales-argo-rahaston

Arvopaperi already reported on this on November 25:

In 2019, the Barclay Managed Funds Report listed the HCP Focus fund managed by Ernst Grönblom as the best equity fund in the world in the Equity Long Only category.

UB now has four equity funds. Quickly thinking, an equity fund based on such a value investing strategy seems like a good addition to the selection. Equity funds could be predicted to still be in demand, as low interest rates will drive capital into equity funds.

UB FUNDS
Equity Funds (4): UB America, UB HR Finland, UB World, UB Thales Argo
Bond Funds (3): UB High Yield, UB Interest Plus, UB Short Interest,
Real Estate Equity Funds (4): UB Asia REIT+, UB Europe REIT, UB Global REIT, UB N-America REIT
Real Estate Funds (2): UB Nordic Commercial Properties, UB Finland Properties
Infrastructure Funds (2): UB EM Infra, UB Infra
Multi-Strategy Funds (1): UB Smart
Forest Funds (3): UB Forest, UB Nordic Forest Fund II and III
Real Asset Funds (1): UB EM Frontier Real Assets

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As a staunch patriot, I just don’t get it: that money is everything, and that the Finnish national treasure, our forests (forest land), are being sold off to foreigners.

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Maybe Finns just can’t afford to own anything?

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Not if the funds are willing to overpay for forests with the expectation that when realized, e.g., to foreign insurance companies, they will still get good returns. :thinking:

It’s very quiet around UB.. is the free float and thus the volume so small that it’s not interesting? The stock has risen over 20% since the beginning of the year and over 40% within the year.

Profitable, but boring business?

I personally find the company very interesting and expect UB to also be an active player as the industry consolidates.

In addition to the appreciation of the stock, one can enjoy dividends, Inderes’ dividend forecast is €0.55.

//KK

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I myself owned the stock, and when I wanted to get rid of it at a reasonable price, I had to keep the “market stall” open, to put it bluntly, for about a week. So yes, too little trading to be of interest.

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It’s quite interesting that SEB is launching a new major forest fund: https://amwatch.dk/article13628750.ece

"The evergreen structure also explains why SEB has reduced the expected size after second close at EUR 500m for Silvestica I to EUR 300-400m for Silvestica II. "We’re able to invest those EUR 300m within a couple of years, and then we will be able to have new clients coming in again. So, it will be “”

These sums are quite large and they clearly believe they will still find acquisition targets in the market. UB, for its part, put its own UB Metsä (UB Forest) fund on soft close because it was difficult to find reasonable acquisition targets in Finland. Of course, UB is now working on NFF3, which focuses especially on the Baltics. I should inquire about this a bit during the earnings info session. There is a huge investor demand for these forest funds, so the problem is purely investing the capital.

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Acquisition of a five percent ownership stake in UB Finnish Property Oy by UB Omaisuudenhoito Oy has been confirmed

United Bankers Oyj announced on December 30, 2021, that its subsidiary UB Omaisuudenhoito Oy had agreed to increase its ownership stake in its subsidiary UB Finnish Property Oy by a total of at least 5 percentage points and a maximum of 28.1 percentage points. The first part of the arrangement, the acquisition of a 5 percent ownership stake, was completed on March 16, 2022, and as a result, UB Omaisuudenhoito’s ownership stake in UB Finnish Property has increased to 56 percent. The purchase price has been paid in cash.

If the entire acquisition of a 28.1 percent ownership stake in UB Finnish Property is realized, the total purchase price has been agreed to be approximately 3.2 million euros. The purchase price for the remaining portion will be paid primarily through a directed share issue of UB Omaisuudenhoito shares. Upon the completion of the latter part of the arrangement, the sellers have also committed to a second share exchange, in which United Bankers will offer new United Bankers shares for subscription by the sellers through a directed share issue, which the sellers have committed to use their acquired UB Omaisuudenhoito shares to subscribe. The sellers are the founding shareholders of UB Finnish Property or their controlled entities, and they represent the sales and portfolio management of the Special Investment Fund UB Suomi Kiinteistöt. The completion of the latter part of the arrangement is conditional on a legally binding preliminary ruling from the Finnish Tax Administration (Verohallinto).

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