Inspired by Technopolis. Let’s make a thread where we go through the premiums and guess future acquisitions. What do you think about Techno’s premium today?
Hey not good… I could have kept this for the next 50+ years…
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Worthless. A tenner 2022.
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Technopolis was a bit of a disappointment. The price should be higher. It hasn’t really moved in a year though, so it was basically a weight off when it was bought out. Now just looking for something new to put the money into 
would Remedy be something that could also be bought out? Some bigger game company?
Nice news for a Tuesday morning 
Not a complete surprise though, as there’s a lot of money circulating globally hunting for quality properties.
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I stalked you when I saw on Shareville that you bought with your coder 
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Through Morgan Stanley, all shares that become available are being scooped up at a price of 4.65e. What is the logic here? Is the group that made the tender offer already collecting some of the shares for themselves? 
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Heh, I was just about to start a new thread on potential acquisition targets? Well, throw your guesses into this same discussion - if the OP doesn’t mind 
- Qt, 2 years from now
- Remedy, 2 years from now, if Control is a smash hit
- Hoivatilat?!
- Rapala?!
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Care facilities (Hoivatilat) could go to real estate giants like Technopolis. Qt is quite potential because why would a car manufacturer want to leave the technology for others to use if they can own it themselves… Since they have the money… Daimler buys it, as they already use Qt?
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There has been speculation about a Rapala acquisition for years (or decades). Based on fairly reliable rumors, a deal was relatively close about 5 years ago, but VMC (the main owner) was ultimately unwilling to proceed. The arrangement would be very logical, as there are clear scale advantages in the industry. The best possible arrangement, in my opinion, would be a situation where a private equity investor first buys Pure Fishing (Newell has publicly stated it’s for sale) and then merges Rapala into it. The new entity (PF/Rapala) would be the undisputed number one in the fishing market, and its brand portfolio would include almost all the top brands in the industry. However, in this arrangement, the greatest value would be for private equity investors, not Rapala’s current owners. The probabilities seem to be on the side that Rapala will still be publicly traded in 5 years.
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There have been a lot of M&A transactions in the financial sector in recent years, and I believe this trend will continue in the future. Tightening regulation, the demands of digitalization, and significant economies of scale act as drivers for consolidation. Below are my speculations regarding various players:
Evli: S-Pankki would be a logical buyer for Evli, and some foreign entity might also be interested in Evli. A third scenario for Evli, in my opinion, would be a merger with, for example, eQ, which would create a financial services company in Finland approaching the size of major banks (Danske, Nordea, OP). I consider it relatively likely that Evli will not be independent in 5 years. It would certainly be for sale at the right price.
eQ: When a price is agreed upon, it will certainly be for sale (the current management sold the old eQ 10 years ago to Icelanders). A foreign buyer would be the most probable option, but theoretically, S-Pankki is also possible. A merger with CapMan or Evli would also be very interesting. It is highly probable that eQ will look different in 5 years.
Taaleri: I don’t believe the company is truly for sale. Taaleri is unlikely to be involved in the traditional asset management consolidation game. The company focuses on organic growth and seeking acquisition targets outside traditional players (e.g., Invesdor, Fellow Finance, etc.). Certainly independent in 5 years.
CapMan: A takeover bid is relatively unlikely. A merger with eQ would be logical. If this does not happen, CapMan will be the buyer. I believe CapMan would be particularly interested in increasing its distribution power and expanding its product offering. For example, Dasos Capital would fit perfectly into CapMan’s portfolio.
Titanium: The company was a desirable acquisition target for a long time, but its listing and the acquisition of Investium reduced its attractiveness. I consider it relatively likely that Titanium will remain independent, and the company will be a buyer rather than being bought. Titanium would have a clear need to expand its product offering, and thus I believe the company will especially seek product houses (e.g., fund companies).
United Bankers: UB was an interesting acquisition target, and for example, for CapMan, the company would have fit very well before the SPL transaction. After the SPL transaction, UB’s attractiveness as an acquisition target has decreased (too much staff), and I consider it relatively likely that UB will also remain independent. UB will continue to be an active player in the M&A landscape, and the company is looking for acquisitions on a very broad scale.
EliteAB: Elite is a reasonably interesting acquisition target due to its low market value and relatively large assets under management. The Oma SP rumors were, in our understanding, true, and these discussions are likely still ongoing. If Elite does not merge with Oma SP (or some other larger player), it will continue its acquisition-driven expansion. The company’s focus is on asset management, and acquisitions will be directed there.
All in all, a lot will happen in the financial sector. Not all of these smaller investment service companies will truly be independent in 5 years. The biggest odds, in my opinion, are on a takeover bid for Evli, followed by eQ and Elite.
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@Verneri_Pulkkinen I saw on the forum today that you sold Technopolis. Why did you sell it now and not wait for it to be bought out through the acquisition? I also own some, as I followed you and your coder 
I’m wondering if I should sell too or hold until the acquisition is completed? I’m a bit lost as I haven’t had a company bought out from my portfolio before. Thanks for this, by the way!
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Haha, well I got a little over the offer price. And money also has an expected value: otherwise, you would have to wait a full month for the crumbs that come from it.
I cannot, and none of us here can, by the way, give direct investment advice. If you wait, a portfolio company event should appear in your bank (e.g., in Nordnet), from which you can accept the offer.
In some cases, it might be good to wait for a competing offer if it’s possible. In this case, it’s unlikely, so I sold out.
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Okay, thanks again for clarifying! But isn’t it really strange why someone would want to buy above the offer price of what the acquisition would be?
Perhaps, maybe someone believes a competing offer will come. Or maybe the buyer themselves is buying these, though I don’t know if that’s possible at this stage since an offer has been made.
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Investors really aren’t always the smartest people in the world; there are many among them who are far more clueless than you. 
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I’ve sometimes thought of an analogy for the markets to the remark by Sweden’s Lord High Chancellor Oxenstierna (1583–1654): “My son, if only you knew with how little wisdom the world is governed.” I’m not claiming to be smart and “rational” all the time myself, but I at least try. ;D
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Great text! If we speculate that within the next five years there will be some kind of bear market where asset management firms’ results decline and relative valuations cool down amidst general nervousness, what effects would this have on consolidation? Which companies will be able to buy at a discount, and which will end up being acquisition targets?
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Amer possibly leaving next. Congratulations to the owners!
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