Telia Company - Thread

Holger Haljand has been appointed as the new CEO of Telia Finland, effective February 1. Haljand is currently the CEO of Telia Estonia and has been with the company since 2000. Haljand will become a member of Telia Company’s Group Executive Management. Telia Finland’s current CEO, Heli Partanen, is leaving the company.

https://www.telia.fi/telia-yrityksena/medialle/epress?articleId=248bd877-1a57-4313-a700-7ff702d1a908

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Telia received consensus estimates.

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The stock chart, on the other hand, looks like this.

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I sold my position a long time ago, but it might be on my watchlist. If, for example, the stock were to drop significantly in connection with the earnings report, I would probably buy.

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Telia sold its Marshall stake for over 100 million.

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Here are Joni’s pre-comments on Telia. :slight_smile:

Telia Company will publish its Q4 report on Thursday at 8:00 AM. Operationally, growth is slightly slower as price increases are not currently supporting growth. On the other hand, cost savings are starting to take effect and support stronger earnings growth in Q4. The 2025 guidance is already known, and a dividend of 2 SEK per share is very likely to be paid, according to the company’s previous comments.

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The results are out.

  • Revenue SEK 23,724 M - expectation SEK 23,331 M
  • Adjusted SEK EBITDA 7,870 M - expectation SEK 7,915 M
  • Operating income SEK 1,393 M - expectation SEK 1,770 M
  • Dividend as expected and 2025 guidance already previously communicated and still valid

No major surprises, revenue slightly better than expected, and profitability slightly weaker than expected.

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Here are @Joni_Gronqvist’s quick comments on the latest results. :slight_smile:

Telia’s Q4 report was overall slightly weaker than our expectations. Revenue grew in line with expectations, but the profit lines fell short of our expectations. Cash flow was slightly better than expected in Q4, but as expected, it is not quite enough to cover the full-year dividend proposed by the board and expected by the market. The company, as expected, reiterated the guidance it provided in the autumn for 2025, which anticipates good growth in earnings and cash flow.

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*The company, as expected, reiterated the guidance it gave in the autumn for 2025, which anticipates good growth in earnings and cash flow. :+1:

This is the most important thing with Telia, i.e., the future.

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Joni has prepared a new company report on Telia. :slight_smile:

We reiterate our target price of SEK 32 and a reduce recommendation for Telia’s share. Telia’s Q4 report was, on the whole, slightly weaker than our expectations. However, the company was confident about the current year, and we kept our forecasts broadly unchanged. We predict the company will grow precisely in line with guidance, which is a good level compared to history. Nevertheless, the somewhat fluctuating revenue trend and historical disappointments regarding the impact of efficiency measures keep us on our toes. The share’s valuation picture (2025e P/E and EV/EBIT 15x) remains neutral, considering the already tightly tuned earnings growth expectations.

Quoted from the report:

Return expectation is not quite enough yet

The return expectation for Telia’s share is mainly composed of dividend yield (6%), the sustainability of which is still questionable. Earnings growth in our forecasts is about 3% in the coming years, and its risk level is rather high. The valuation is neutral. The return expectation just barely exceeds the required return on equity. However, this alone is not enough to justify a positive view, as the risk level is rather high due to the tuned earnings growth.

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Now the TV business has been sold!

Telia sells its TV business to Schibsted Media – Deal worth 6.55 billion Swedish kronor | Kauppalehti

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I remember it like yesterday when it was reported that Telia was buying MTV.
I thought this would be the golden age for shareholders. But what happened was anything but golden days, at least thanks to Telia.
I even subscribed to the sports channel package and paid (and still pay) tens of euros a month, but once the league season and European football seasons are over, it’s time to say goodbye to my long-time friend CMore, or whatever Katsomo this is called these days.
May phone subscriptions and share ownership continue, I guess one still gets a relatively good dividend from this.

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I too regarded Telia’s entry into the TV business positively. But the fault is not solely in my poor judgment. As it seems, Telia has a habit of expanding and making corporate acquisitions by making purchases and then leaving the acquired targets to their own devices. Then soon one can wonder why money isn’t raining from the sky, and sell the business off.

Even my website’s service provider eventually became an acquisition target for Telia. After that, there was indeed a flood of communication about changing matters, which was then followed by further communication about the postponement of changes. And at some point, information arrived that the entire business had been sold to a new company. Now, by the way, the service provider is doing much better.

From Maikkari’s perspective, it’s a good thing that it ends up in capable hands.

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An analyst following Telia at Blomma commented on the deal. 6.55 billion kronor is ultimately significantly more than the 3-4 billion that was circulating last year.

blomma telia

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In M&A subtypes, so-called horizontal deals generally seem to work, where one acquires one’s own business in other markets or a competitor out of the domestic market.

In the Bonnier deal, Telia acquired a non-horizontal, complementary pay-TV business for cross-selling, but consequently had to take on a large piece of completely different business (advertising business), which, even from the perspective of target groups, is a completely different game than subscription sales.

Fortunately, the selling price was at such a good multiple – and ultimately wasn’t that far from the purchase price! And it seems there were also a few profitable years for the TV unit along the way…

Here are Joni’s quick comments on Telia’s Q1. :slight_smile:

Telia’s Q1 report was positive overall and exceeded our expectations. Revenue grew slightly better than we expected. Other expense lines and consequently also the profit lines practically all developed slightly better than we expected. The bottom line thus clearly exceeded our forecasts. The company reiterated its guidance for 2025 as expected, and good earnings growth is anticipated.

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Thanks for the good quick comment :slight_smile: There seemed to be one error, as it talked about earnings per share in euros, even though it apparently should have been in crowns :slight_smile: Considering the exchange rates, this seems like quite a big difference :slight_smile:

Edit: corrected the error to unit form.

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Here is a fresh company report from Joni after Q1. :slight_smile:

We raise Telia’s share target price to SEK 34.0 (previously SEK 32.0), reflecting changes in forecasts. We reiterate our ‘reduce’ recommendation. Telia’s Q1 report was positive overall and exceeded our expectations. However, Q1 appears to be the strongest quarter of the year from an earnings growth perspective. We forecast the company to grow precisely in line with guidance, which is a good level historically. The share’s valuation (2025e P/E and EV/EBIT 16x and 15x) remains neutral, considering the already tight earnings growth expectations.

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Not much is happening in the thread, so I decided to publicly thank Telia for this, in this thread. →

With the new protection, foreign numbers associated with callback scams are hidden so that customers cannot accidentally call back these expensive scam numbers.

However, if a scam call gets through, a Telia customer will hear a notification when calling a suspected scam number. The customer must hang up during the notification to avoid a potential international call charge.

The segue to investing can be found in the content of the new service. My own parents passed away years ago, but if they were alive, I would suggest or help them transfer their number to Telia. The baby boomers are susceptible to scams, and such a simple service is very good for their use. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t recall seeing anything similar from competitors.

So, it’s a clear competitive advantage. :slight_smile:

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Here are Joni’s comments from Telia’s analyst call before the quiet period. :slight_smile:

Telia held an analyst call before the start of the quiet period. The company reviewed geographical and group-level observations during the call. In the big picture, Q2 will have slower earnings growth than the rest of the year, as previously communicated. Below are observations related to Q2.

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Here are Joni’s brief comments on how Telia completed the sale of its TV & Media business. :slight_smile:

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Below are Joni’s comments as Telia publishes its Q2 report on Friday morning. :slight_smile:

We forecast revenue to have grown slightly and profitability to have improved, driven by cost savings. In the big picture, earnings growth in Q2 is slower than in the latter half of the year. We made small negative forecast adjustments before the results, mainly due to the weaker-than-expected situation in Norway. We forecast the company’s operational performance to be at the very bottom end of its guidance for the current year. In our view, the stock is currently fairly priced. We reiterate our target price of 34 SEK for the stock and a Reduce recommendation.

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