Software companies have been sold off heavily. Here is Ticker IGV ETF, which shows the overall picture well. Nothing has held back the decline, and there are no signs of a bottom yet.
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Here are my two largest investments. Surprisingly similar performance - they are just moving in different phases of the waves right now.
First largest investment.
Strongly in an upward wave and heading towards new highs.
In the second major investment, a corrective wave has been occurring. And just like with my largest investment in the summer of 2025, it felt like the corrective wave was going too far. And as I have said before regarding this, I expect the next wave to be a strong move upwards once the correction is completed. I suspect the bottom has either been found or is very close.
So the first is Nokia, the second is Smart Eye. It’s nice to ride with the winners. It’s important to keep a cool head if there have been no changes in the investment case.
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Updated view on Nokia. And believe me, I have thought about this a lot – and on top of that, I might possibly be wrong. But here it is anyway.
I’ll start with the ADR.
I made an assumption that wave 3 has completed, and likewise wave 4. So now we are working on the final wave, no. 5. The image shows Fibonaccis as targets for that final wave. The traditional rules are: the last wave should not be shorter than wave 1 (or actually wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves), and on the other hand, wave 5 is not longer than wave 3.
In previous five-wave uptrends, wave 3 has nearly hit the descending red trendline, and the hit has been “closed” specifically with the fifth wave. With these thoughts, my own target for the current wave is roughly 9.15 USD.
And then the Helsinki chart and likewise a (speculative) outline of the future.
So this should match the ADR, but I believe the ADR is dominant. Roughly hitting the descending trend ceiling, and RSI hitting the rising red level.
A corrective wave downward, and then I personally believe a super-cycle upward begins. I believe that Nokia will be a winning stock for the next 10 years or so, as it is at the heart of network infrastructure – including wireless networks, not just IP and OPTICAL networks.
Why wouldn’t the stock price explosion happen immediately based on fundamentals? I suspect that the integration of Nokia’s optical components (ICE-D) might not be in the Rubin architecture yet, but in its next update version. More might be whispered about this in either H2/2026 or H1/2027. Nokia’s new factory’s InP/PIC capacity will start being in full use by then (from the end of 2026 onwards). I consider it nearly 100% certain that there will be a full-scale taker for that massive capacity at that time. Mastery of optical networks is “the thing” for the next decade. Before that, meaning this year, Nokia is making a strong entry with its ICE-X pluggables products, but from 2027 onwards, optical development will take an even more significant leap forward.
Bold thoughts from my side, and actually quite a bit of an update to my previous thinking. Let’s see how it goes, referring back to the opening paragraph.
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NUKL has a nice, large cup with handle forming in my view. Volume is also decreasing well towards the end, and the handle can also be seen as a VCP. I bought a bit for the active part of my portfolio even though a breakout hasn’t occurred yet.
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Harvia is in a tight spot - a bounce should slowly start developing if it wants to stay in a firmer area. After €33.95, monthly supports are only slightly above twenty.
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Patria Investments $PAX
Hasn’t really liked the situation in Iran, a long dive since the start of the operation.
In an oversold state, starting to climb up a bit from there.
On the edge of the last fib.
And starting to form a base at the $11.20-$11.40 mark.
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Neste. Crucial levels.
POC = Point of control, the stock is there now.
50 % Fibonacci, meaning half of the previous long decline (December 2022 → April 2025) has now been recovered.
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Verkkokauppa.com. The minimum requirement is met, meaning rule C is fulfilled.
I would argue that a potential breakthrough above 4 euros could set the target range at around 7-8 euros. Before that, there are many worries for the consumer’s wallet, so hopefully, that won’t become too big of a problem.
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Nokia update.
ADR. Short description.
In my opinion, a corrective wave (A → C) is underway on the daily chart.
Same short description, Helsinki.
In the longer chart, there is uncertainty whether it is wave 3 or wave 5 that is underway. But in any case, once both are complete, it will be the turn of the corrective wave. Nokia’s corrective wave seems to be very strongly linked to the general market sentiment, rather than due to company-specific reasons.
And again, I may be wrong, so everyone should do their own analysis. The Helsinki chart shows my target at the Fib level, but it is not set in stone - with current thoughts, my range is €5.60-6.00.
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One could say that the Nasdaq (Nasse) doesn’t look very good… Trump’s TACO was received early this week, leading to a miserable “bounce”. No V-shaped recovery this time
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The previous fourth year in Bitcoin’s cycle brought a bear market lasting just over a year, with three consolidations after roughly -76%. Now, we’ve had two consolidations in six months, and -52%. One more in the box?
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