What about this sounds too good to be true? The company is going to burn tens of millions on salaries and R&D over the next 4 years and invest approximately -200m in an industrial-scale factory (if they manage to raise the funds?).
The facility will produce (if it works) 13kt of protein. Comparing it to pea/soy/faba protein, the peer price per kilo is around 5€? At best, the company generates 60m in revenue? Even at that scale, Inderes forecasts negative EBIT. Even if the factory reached 30% EBIT margins with 60m revenue, the payback period for the factory would be 10 years. How can this factory investment be justified to new investors? Current investors will also be significantly diluted in the future.
Solar Foods’ market cap is 150m, so with my own forecast of 60m revenue for FY30 and an optimistic 20% EBIT, the 2030 multiples would be 2.5x 2030 sales and 12.5x 2030 EBIT. In the meantime, current owners will be diluted and there will be +50m of debt on the balance sheet.
GLGL (disclosure, not long or short)