I agree that based on the previous quarter, forecasts had to be cut significantly, even though at least in my own forecasts, the “take rate” in the GSR2 region was better than expected. It strongly looks like the problems were specifically related to a lower-than-anticipated average price and market size.
The size of the market might even slightly exceed that 20 million, since Smart and Seeing do have some slices of the pie in China as well. The GSR2 market is pretty close to 15 million cars a year. Passenger cars in the EU amount to 11 million. I’ve sometimes panicked over the same figure when the word “cars” gets mistranslated in my mind. However, vans, trucks, buses, Turkey, Switzerland, and Norway still get added on top of that.
So, for 2026, that means 8 million cars at an average price (ASP) of 55 SEK, plus another 160 million SEK in NRE and AIS revenue. This was supposed to include a bit of a safety margin relative to Redeye’s forecast.
With these assumptions, Redeye’s (“punasilmän” - lit. red-eye) projections still felt quite realistic a couple of weeks ago. Now you can really feel it in your portfolio that you ended up being way off.
Now that formula is presumably roughly 6 million cars, an ASP of 40 SEK, and NRE + AIS of 140 million SEK.