This and regulatory risk (a strong market position and pricing power always interest authorities) are also the biggest question marks for me regarding Sampo. As for Finland and the Nordic countries, I have reasoned that here we can and still have time to adapt to extreme weather events caused by climate change, which mitigates damages, but it would be interesting to hear others’ views. And ultimately, that is always channeled into insurance premiums, isn’t it?
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Aaah, the good old split discussion! 
Below is my and Kasper’s recommendation history from the last 5 years (always found in the report):
We were actually on a negative recommendation for most of this period of higher interest rates, excluding that small period where Manda’s shares were picked up on the positive side. Our view, in summary, was that Sampo’s earnings growth outlook is quite modest, and relative to this, the stock is fully priced. Additionally, we were somewhat concerned that price competition in the market might well increase, as insurance technical results are strong across the entire industry, and investment returns are rising rapidly due to increasing interest rates.
In connection with the Q4’24 report, Sampo’s results significantly exceeded expectations. Furthermore, our view on the company’s profit distribution became more generous than before. As a result, we turned our recommendation to positive and made a marginal increase to our target price. Below is an excerpt from the Q4’24 report’s ingress:
In light of our updated forecasts, we see the return expectation as just barely sufficient for a positive recommendation, even though there is no significant undervaluation in the stock.
Report: https://www.inderes.fi/research/sampo-q424-voitonjakonakyma-aiempaa-vuolaampi
The Q1’25 report, on the other hand, was exceptionally good, and as a result, we made quite significant forecast upgrades. Below is a quote from the report:
We have revised our forecasts upwards after a strong Q1 report. Key factors behind the forecast increases, in addition to the strong Q1 result, are Topdanmark’s increased synergies and our raised growth forecasts for Hastings.
For 2025, forecast changes have remained small, but for 2026-2027, our earnings forecasts have risen significantly by Sampo’s standards (7-12%). Our 2025 forecasts are at the upper end of the guidance.
Our dividend forecasts have also risen by 11-13% for 2026-2027.
In addition to the forecast increases, concerns about competition have also diminished, as interest rates have dropped like a stone:
Sampo’s earning power has consistently exceeded our expectations, mainly due to its excellent growth and a better-than-expected resilient underwriting margin. Higher interest rates have not significantly increased players’ willingness for aggressive price competition, and now with interest rates falling sharply again, this risk is clearly smaller than before. We are no longer particularly concerned about this, especially if interest rates remain at their current level.
With significant forecast increases and a decrease in risk level, there was also reason to revise the target price upwards, and below is the ingress from the Q1’25 report:
Sampo’s Q1 report was excellent in all respects, and we have made clear positive forecast upgrades. The earnings growth outlook for the coming years is very good, and the risk level of earnings growth has continued to decrease. The stock is starting to look expensive, but strong earnings growth and a generous dividend stream provide just barely sufficient return expectations. We revise our target price for Sampo to 9.8 euros (previously 8.6e) and reiterate our Add recommendation.
Report: https://www.inderes.fi/research/sampo-q125-erinomaista-tekemista-jopa-sammon-standardeilla
So, in summary, this rise in the target price has come purely from fundamentals. Sampo’s case actually looks significantly better at the moment than it did about 12 months ago when I went on sabbatical 
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Message merged into topic: Inderesin kahvihuone (Part 10)
Apologies if the Finance Evening presentation seemed a bit confusing at times. The slides were progressing at different paces on the main screen and the screens in front, so it was a bit confusing as I wasn’t sure which slide was currently showing and which screen I should be looking at 
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Analyst consensus collected after Q1 results published: https://www.sampo.com/fi/sijoittajat/analyytikkotietoa/konsensusennusteet/
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Updated view. 
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Tomorrow we’re recording Great Sampopodi vol2 with Antti Saari! If you have any questions, there’s still time to send them in (either here or dm). 
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One could review the British market and recent acquisitions there. Additionally, would there be interesting targets for Sampo on the British stock exchange?
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Although Sampo profiles itself in its investor communications (and otherwise) as “boring” and stable, it would be nice to hear some irresponsible speculation about whether there are any rabbits to pull out of its sleeve or trouser leg. Penetration into new markets through acquisitions like Hastings or TD, or something else? Or could there be other M&A targets in the current markets?
I trust that you will cover the future of Hastings and the competitive landscape of the British market.
Was there also talk at some point about monitoring driving behavior, how do you see this impacting the competitive advantages of products in the Nordic insurance market? Is its role (if productized) merely to gain more market share or to influence drivers’ accident tendencies? How much competitive advantage can realistically be expected from this, is it, in the big picture, just about maintaining competitiveness or do you genuinely see an opportunity there to significantly gain market share in some market? Or are we just talking about trifles?
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As referred from OP’s morning review:
Sampo Group CEO Torbjörn Magnusson has announced his retirement, and If’s CEO Morten Thorsrud has been appointed as his successor, starting in the position on October 1, 2025. Magnusson will continue as a Senior Advisor until the end of the year. Thorsrud’s appointment is seen as a natural continuation, as he has 23 years of experience within the group and has developed If’s operational efficiency in line with Magnusson’s strategy. The appointment primarily signals continuity in Sampo’s operations.
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When will this spectacle be released, by the way? Your voices would be very much anticipated company for Midsummer trips 
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This timing was quite a bit more of a surprise, if the change wasn’t expected for years.
Hey!
The recording was indeed last Friday. A bit unusually, we’ve made a few podcasts in stock for the summer, and the podcast team decides in what order they are released.
It’s quite funny that one audience question for the podcast was precisely about Sampo’s succession plan. Antti and I were very much on the same page, and my thoughts can be read here: Sammon konsernijohtajan vaihdokseen ei liity dramatiikkaa - Inderes
@kallepekka1, in Sampo’s case, the transformation journey is now over, and going forward, the focus is solely and exclusively on non-life insurance. In this sense, it’s actually quite irrelevant whether the leader is changed now or, for example, in 2 years.
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Press release on the planned expansion of PIM.
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Goldman Sachs announced today that it will be more selective in its investments in European insurance company stocks after a strong start to the year. This was reported by the investing.com website. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goldman-shifts-toward-value-in-eu-insurance-favors-pe-cheap-midcaps-4120891
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The European insurance sector’s SXIE index has outperformed the Stoxx 600 index by 21 percent over the past 12 months. Goldman now favors insurance companies
that are priced at historically lower valuations and have more operations in the retail customer markets. Additionally, they value limited dollar risk. -
Regarding Sampo, Goldman is reported to state the following: “Mandatum and Sampo remain Sells despite strong retail exposure, due to low or declining capital return yield projections.”
In the morning, headlines also reported that Berenberg had published a new report on Sampo. Buy recommendation and target price of 11.20 euros.
The thread also seems to be missing JPMorgan’s update published on June 12, where the recommendation was upgraded from neutral to overweight and the target price was raised to 10.50 euros.
A bit more information about these analyses is available: https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/berenberg-reinstates-sampo-oyj-stock-with-buy-rating-eur1120-target-93CH-4120399
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Berenberg estimates that the markets do not account for Sampo’s transformation into a leading Nordic insurance company, nor its high capital return and sustainable growth potential. Sampo’s strong position in the Nordics enables high margins with lower risk.
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JPMorgan expects Sampo to announce a 400 million euro share buyback program this year, and anticipates it could rise to 500 million euros by 2026. They forecast Sampo’s annual growth rate to be approximately 10% between 2025–2028.
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Of course, there can be surprises and black swans in the world and markets, but that growth combined with dividends and share buybacks would mean roughly double the return for Sampo’s owners in the coming years, e.g., compared to average indices?
And a little more on this:
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Sampo published its pre-silent period info package yesterday: https://www.sampo.com/globalassets/investors/analyst-information/documents/sampo_q225_pre_silent_analyst_information.pdf
Its key peer, Tryg, also released theirs a couple of weeks ago: https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/aab21f91-5375-4b7c-863b-5e08e2270371
There was nothing unusual in the comments from either. The market appears to have been quite stable, and no major surprises (e.g., weather or large claims) should have occurred.
Falling interest rates will again boost investment income to a tremendous level (bond values go up), but conversely, this increases insurance liabilities.
As a curiosity, the dynamics of the British market are indeed interesting. Now that insurance prices are falling, people are not bothering to compare insurance policies as much as before. In a way, it’s quite logical, but still interesting how differently it goes compared to the Nordics.
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The latest Sampo pod is out now!
Topics:
00:00 Start
01:13 Sampo analyst coverage
03:30 Topdanmark
22:14 Hastings
37:20 If
47:45 Mandatum
53:56 Sampo in its current form
57:17 View on Sampo
01:00:09 Profit distribution
01:05:39 Audience questions
01:23:09 Brand in the future
Time to listen 
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Here are Sale’s comments on Sampo’s peer Gjensidige’s Q2 results. 
Sampo’s Norwegian peer Gjensidige reported excellent results this morning. The results were significantly better than market expectations, and it’s difficult to find any weaknesses in the report. The report supports our assessment that Sampo’s Q2 has proceeded well, as usual.
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Here are Sale’s comments on the Q2 report of another peer, Tryg.
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