Raisio’s revenue development in the early part of the year was slightly more moderate than our expectations, but despite this, the company achieved a clear earnings improvement, exceeding both our and consensus forecasts. Profitability was driven upward by the strong momentum of the Breakfast, Snacking & Food Solutions unit, as well as cost benefits from production and raw materials, which were sufficient to overcome ERP project expenses and currency exchange headwinds. As expected, the company reiterated its guidance pointing toward growth in revenue and comparable EBIT. Uncertainty in the operating environment has continued with the war in Iran, but the company itself sees its position as strong in the turbulent market, and the effects have so far been only indirect. Preliminarily, there is a need for only minor fine-tuning of our forecasts.
Roni and Pauli have published a company report on Raisio
Raisio’s Q1 results exceeded our expectations, but in our assessment, the Q1 performance received some support from timing factors and thus does not fully represent a new normal. Guidance remains unchanged, as expected. However, accelerating cost inflation has increased risks in the operating environment, leading us to slightly cut our forecasts for the coming years.
Raisio plc’s CEO Pasi Flinkman has announced his transition to the service of another company. Flinkman will continue in his role as CEO until November or until a new CEO has been appointed. Raisio’s Board of Directors has initiated the search process for a new CEO immediately.
“I want to thank Pasi Flinkman for his good work at Raisio. Flinkman has renewed Raisio’s operations and improved Raisio’s profitability in a commendable way. Based on these results, Raisio is well-positioned to continue the determined implementation of its strategy,” says Arto Tiitinen, Chairman of Raisio’s Board of Directors.
“I want to thank the entire Raisio personnel as well as our customers for their cooperation and trust. Together we have strengthened the company’s financial performance, advanced the implementation of the strategy, and built a more competitive foundation for the future. I wish Raisio success in the future as well,” says Pasi Flinkman.
Here are Roni’s comments regarding the Raisio CEO leaving his job.
Raisio announced on Thursday that the company’s CEO, Pasi Flinkman, is moving to the service of another company. We consider the news surprising, as Flinkman, who started in the summer of 2024, held his position for a quite short period. However, Flinkman will continue in his role until as late as November or until a successor is appointed, which ensures operational continuity during the transition period. The change of CEO does not create a need for forecast changes.
Riku-Matti Akkanen has written about how the European Union is tightening food import controls. This might interest shareholders of Atria and HK Foods, in addition to Raisio owners.
The EU’s tightening food import controls could arguably benefit these Finnish companies, as it might strengthen the competitive position of domestic producers. On the other hand, companies relying on imported raw materials could see their supply chains and costs come under pressure.
Raisio knows their stuff; they’ve struck gold and glory in Spain with their breakfast porridge. I share the Iberian perspective—Elovena instant porridges are tasty and a really convenient product to whip up for breakfast.
I have met Elli myself during my career and was left with a very competent and positive impression of her. Good luck to Elli in her new job; I am a satisfied shareholder myself!
The ownership structure of Raisio is interesting in that MTK (Central Union of Agricultural Producers and Forest Owners) is the largest shareholder through its K-series shares, holding the most voting power at 10%. SEB holds the second-most voting power. MTK has been known to be a (conservative) interest group for producers. At times, it has been downright obstructive in resisting reforms and changes that, in the big picture, have been seen as important for things like the national economy, environmental protection, or security of supply. It would be interesting to know if, at some point, MTK’s influence on advocacy has manifested in Raisio’s operations in a way that has undermined the general and most important goal of limited liability companies, which is to generate value for their shareholders.
Pauli has written his comments on Raisio’s Q2 results
Raisio reported its Q2 results today, which were weaker than expected in terms of earnings. Earnings were pressured by the timing of marketing and ERP expenses, as well as weak consumer sales in the Heart Health unit. Currency headwinds also had an impact. The company maintained its growth-oriented guidance for revenue and earnings, which requires a positive turnaround towards the end of the year. We consider the weakness in Q2 to be largely timing-related, so consensus forecasts for adjusted operating profit will likely be lowered more clearly for 2026, but likely only slightly for 2027.
Pauli has published a new company report on Raisio
Q2 results fell short of expectations, but we see much of the weakness as being due to timing factors. The company reiterated its upward-trending guidance, which, if realized, would mean a positive turn for the remainder of the year. Furthermore, the completion of the ERP project in early 2027 means the company is well-positioned to continue earnings growth into next year. We see the earnings-based valuation as favorable (adj. EV/EBIT 2026e: 11x), so we reiterate our “accumulate” (lisää) recommendation. However, we are lowering our target price to 2.7 euros (previously 2.9 €) due to the current year’s earnings challenges and the increased risk of a profit warning.
