Raw Materials & Natural Resources - The Economy's Primary Sector

The article below states that silver and copper have become new favorites as investors seek returns instead of gold.

Silver has almost doubled, driven by supply difficulties and ETF demand. Copper, on the other hand, benefits from the energy transition and data centers.

Price fluctuations are sharp, but many are betting on these rallies continuing into next year.

Where the silver rally ends is hard to pin down, according to Marex’s Meir.

“When a chart breaks out like this, there are no resistance signposts,” he said. The top “could be $85, could be $60.”

While copper has less of a financial component, the growing demand for electrification to feed AI data centers as well as clean-energy projects has strategists predicting supply shortfalls in years to come.

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Copper inventories on exchanges are at a seven-year high and prices continue to rise.

The reason is the concentration of inventories in the United States due to tariff fears, which ties up copper in markets with low consumption, and tightens supply elsewhere in the world.

https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/1999417708299894863


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I checked out of curiosity what proportion those copper exchange inventories represent of consumption.

Apparently, consumption is about 28mton = 28,000 kton, of which 18,000 kton is newly produced, and 10,000 kton is reused through recycling.

660kton / 28,000 kton = 2.35% = an amount corresponding to 8.6 days of consumption.
So, in the pipeline / supply chain (copper producers, copper refiners, manufacturers of copper products, sellers of copper products, consumers of copper products, etc.) and in transport, there must be several tens of times that amount of copper.

I.e., based on the aforementioned figures, exchange inventories are a relatively small part of copper consumption, and by ‘allocating’ just over a week’s global consumption, they could be doubled.

But why exchange inventories are at precisely that level, and why at 7-year highs, I have no reasonable idea :grinning_face:

Screenshot_2025-12-13-10-43-59-62_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12

Copper Demand and Long-Term Availability - International Copper Association https://share.google/f9X417LgtvpoqWhCw

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Here’s a slightly longer piece about copper, a bit similar to the messages above. :slight_smile:

The price of copper has risen to record levels, according to the article, driven by supply disruptions and fears of US tariffs.

According to experts, US-bound copper hoarding is tightening supply elsewhere in the world. The energy transition and AI are increasing demand - while mine production lags behind.

According to forecasts, the price of copper could rise very high next year. :thinking:

The copper rally is also underpinned by persistent mine disruptions that have dented expectations for future supply growth. In a note published on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank characterized 2025 as “a heavily disrupted year,” with production setbacks forcing several major miners to downgrade output estimates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/15/copper-prices-could-hit-new-highs-as-traders-rush-metal-into-the-us.html

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Here’s more about copper.

The article discusses how this year copper prices have risen due to supply problems, mining issues (halts + slowdowns - due to weather phenomena, strikes, political unrest, etc.), and general tariff concerns.

According to BHP’s CEO, the problems will continue at least until next year. Demand is growing rapidly due to the green transition, but opening new mines is reportedly becoming increasingly difficult, even though it hasn’t been easy before either. Analysts expect prices to remain high or rise further.

"Key Points

  • Copper prices have surged to record highs this year, and are closing in on the $12,000 milestone.
  • Mining disruptions, supply shortages and concerns about U.S. tariffs have helped lift prices higher.
  • Mike Henry, CEO of copper mining giant BHP, told CNBC those challenges will persist into 2026 and possibly beyond."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/copper-price-bhp-ceo-investment-banks-see-bull-run-in-2026.html

SalkunRakentaja has written about platinum. :slight_smile:

Platinum prices have risen to their highest level since 2008, as a deepening supply shortage and growing demand from China have driven the metal’s price close to the $2,000 per ounce mark.

The metal’s annual price increase is now the steepest in over three decades.

During 2025, the price of platinum has more than doubled. On Thursday, the price momentarily rose to $1,974 per ounce, which is only a few hundred dollars away from the all-time high seen in the spring of 2008.

Subheadings:

  1. Supply factors are driving up the price
  2. Chinese demand remains strong
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Platinum has indeed taken off on a sharp rally, just like silver. Both have seen about 115% growth for the year—double that of gold. Platinum also broke $2,000 USD today. The ATH is $2,290 USD from the 2008 financial crisis.

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Copper prices are near all-time highs, but the production side is modest. The tweet notes that production in the world’s largest producing country is among the lowest in over a decade, and it speculates on a potential rocket-like rise for copper next year.

https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2003865225112482041
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Screenshot_20251224_213952_Nordnet

I was looking at the miners, and there has certainly been a reaction there.

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China is now investing record amounts in metals, particularly aluminum.

The message of the tweet for investors is quite clear: follow China’s cash flows, which are going specifically into things like aluminum. :slight_smile: I’ve never really looked into aluminum-related things from an investment perspective before.

https://x.com/marketplunger1/status/2004639293260923104
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Pardon my ignorance… What does it mean that China is investing in metals? Surely they aren’t buying them for storage like gold? If investing in them means, for example, increasing mining activity, then wouldn’t the prices of metals soon fall?

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I understood from what I’ve read previously that China is hoarding it, partly because of a new infrastructure and investment program. Furthermore, the country is trying to ensure the availability of aluminum through supply chain management and various other projects, as it’s needed for the green transition and electrification. I don’t really know how concretely they are acquiring aluminum beyond the aforementioned ways—i.e., I don’t know if they are also directly stockpiling it or something similar.

I think a lot has been written about the mining side regarding aluminum, and it’s been documented where China gets it from—so it occurred to me that yours was a good point: if/when mining activity increases, wouldn’t metal prices, like aluminum, then indeed drop? :thinking:

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The article below talks about the platinum rally.

According to the article, the price rally is driven by the European Union’s decision to reverse the internal combustion engine ban, which “prolongs” the demand for platinum, for example. Additionally, US tariff uncertainty, China’s new futures trading (including platinum, among others), and the tight supply of platinum are also providing a nice boost.

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Platinum is rising because the internal combustion engine ban is being delayed, and copper likes it and goes up as the number of electric vehicles grows. :smiley: Well, maybe I oversimplified things a bit just to meme. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2005943598110355698


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Copper supply issues seem to be worsening, as new discoveries are not being brought into production quickly.

Many projects are still at a very early stage, and their profitability and/or feasibility have not yet been confirmed; furthermore, mine development now takes longer than before, so new production is entering the market slowly.

According to the tweet, these factors are creating clear long-term upward pressure on copper.

https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2007890330331320652


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The article below states that S&P Global estimates copper demand will grow by up to 50 percent by 2040, as AI, the defense sector, and robotics drive electrification forward.

Demand would rise to about 42 million tonnes per year (cf. last year: 28 million tonnes), but supply is not keeping pace – without more mines and recycling, the world could face a shortage of over 10 million tonnes of copper every year.

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One price driver has been Trump’s tariff threats. To avoid tariffs, Americans are currently hoarding copper in a big way, and inventory levels there are at an all-time high.

Viewpoint: US copper faces uncertain 2026 outlook | Latest Market News

CME warehouse totals rose to over 453,000t, a record high compared to the next highest level of nearly 360,000t set in January 2003

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Here is a SalkunRakentaja article about copper, containing a lot of familiar information for those who have been following this thread. :slight_smile:

Subheadings:

  1. Data centers are copper-hungry
  2. The defense sector, energy transition, and grids are driving up copper demand
  3. Mining investments are lagging – permitting processes take time
  4. Prices and politics are accelerating structural change
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The renewable alternatives in the tweet require manifold more copper compared to “traditional alternatives.”

The main point of the tweet is likely that “clean energy” practically means a massive and long-lasting boom for copper demand and prices.

https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2011408050716893511


EDIT:

Take a look at the Metso thread; copper has brought some momentum to this company. :wink:

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Now I still need to know what to buy! Should we have a dedicated thread for copper ideas?

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