Platinum has seen its thickest green monthly candle in five years. Could this be a bullish reversal happening? Has anyone been following the situation more closely?
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That touches upon the platinum case.
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OPEC+ accelerates the return of oil production to the market:
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Did the uranium cycle already happen, and did more uranium magically appear on the market from somewhere, or why isn’t the supply-demand imbalance reflected in the price? So, do we have to wait for a significant price spike, or was it just talk from marketeers?
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Here is Sijoittaja.fI’s general article about copper, but a note for beginners; the article also contains marketing and such.
In recent days, the price of copper has risen rapidly. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday, 8.7.2025, his intention to impose a 50% tariff on copper, aiming to increase U.S. production of the metal. Copper futures rose to a record high after Trump announced the tariff plan, which came earlier than the industry had expected, and the tariffs were higher than anticipated.
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Largest-ever oil discovery on Polish territory
Kanadalainen yhtiö löytänyt Puolan suurimman öljy- ja kaasuesiintymän.
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Copper futures -20%, US tariffs…
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Is this a buying opportunity?! It swung exceptionally hard, considering people are fed up with Trump’s antics.
Jesper Hagman has written an interesting article about palladium. 
Gold, silver, and platinum have been in the headlines this year, but analysts believe palladium is poised for a strong comeback. The price has already risen over 38% this year, and some estimates suggest the rally is just beginning.
Palladium is a rare precious metal belonging to the platinum group. It is light-colored, silvery, and is used in both jewelry and, above all, in industry, where it is a key component in catalytic converters for gasoline cars and trucks. This means that the development of the automotive industry largely drives the demand for palladium.
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While investing in those multinational mining companies, it’s worth remembering that it can also be an investment in your home country. Sibanye Stillwater, ticker SBSW, is primarily a producer of gold, platinum, and palladium, but they have various side projects in many locations. Here are the latest results and an article about the Kokkola project. As a side note, over the last couple of weeks, stocks related specifically to platinum or palladium have started to rise rapidly, which probably anticipates further price increases for those metals.
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Freeport McMoRan Inc. plans to break away from the benchmark pricing system underpinning global sales of mined copper ores to protect the profitability of smelters, the company’s top commercial executive said in an interview.
The global copper industry has long relied on a single benchmark for sales of semi-processed ores known as concentrates. Copper smelters receive processing fees called treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs, to turn concentrates into metal.
These fees — which are deducted from the value of the metal contained in concentrates — are crucial to keep the furnaces running, as they typically account for almost one-third of smelters revenues.
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Jarmo Friman:
“We live in amazing times!
The long-awaited rotation towards real assets, metals, and mines has begun. A major paradigm shift, i.e., a transition from tech hype towards materials, will likely become clearer only when the US economy’s turn towards recession is confirmed. Gold started roaring, silver is tearing its clothes as it surges, uranium is slowly grinding upwards, Trump et al. absolutely blew up REE plays and other critical materials. We might still be at the beginning. A big rotation towards the commodity scene often lasts for years.”
https://x.com/JarmoFriman/status/1978390967280341414
I could jump into this “meta” with index(es) - are there any recommendations for commodity and/or precious metal indexes listed on Nordnet? Or do I need to know the right companies to profit from this trend? Of course, I already own a Gold ETF.
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The most common index funds in the mining sector are likely something like GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, COPX, REMX, URA, URNM, URNJ, and then euro versions of these separately for trading. At least those sector funds should be added to a watchlist separately so you can see which direction money is flowing, but it’s not necessarily essential to invest directly in them if you feel capable of picking individual stocks, for example, with the help of screeners. In that case, those indexes probably provide too much diversification, because there’s no necessary need to own dozens of different gold mining companies or similar, as they all move somewhat according to the price of the raw material. From the social media side, for example, on X, you can try to gather several accounts from that sector into the same list to get started with market monitoring, but volatility in mining stocks is always high, and corrections can be very significant.
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The tweet below reports that there will be a historically large shortage of copper; for example, in 2026, it is predicted to have a deficit of 590,000 tons.
Production is decreasing and demand is growing, especially due to AI and electric vehicles; additionally, the shortage will worsen by 2029, which should keep prices high.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1987703781392371859
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This is otherwise entirely correct, but if a recession hits the US, for example, Rick Rule believes the price of copper will fall.
The biggest problem has been the accident at Freeport’s Indonesian mine, in which people also died. Another reminder that things are done better in Western countries and risks are smaller, though not excluded.
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Here is Johannes Ankelo’s current article on commodity markets.
The discussion about commodities has disappeared from mainstream macro-economic news coverage since their prices surged during the pandemic.
However, ignoring the commodity discussion is a mistake in the bigger picture, as their prices are breaking upwards, reaching highs this week not seen since early 2023.
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Barclays argued that the oil market is on a healthier footing than the oil price suggests. This reasoning is based on refiners’ widening margins, which indicates strong end-demand.
The general narrative is that due to overproduction and underdemand, the oil price will soon plummet. An interesting take from Barclays. No wonder Neste is thriving for a change. 
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Did Barclays argue that more refineries are being built somewhere or where does the growing demand for crude oil come from 
The 3-2-1 Crack Spread is indeed rising, so refineries’ profitability has improved:
Isn’t a more likely explanation for this, however, that Russia’s massive refining capacity has now exited the market due to the export ban, which is why end-product prices are high. At the same time, oil on water has grown by almost 200 million barrels in two months, meaning crude oil has indeed been massively dumped into tankers and onto the market for sale, which will continue to keep crude oil prices low. This is, of course, the best possible situation to own a European oil refinery.
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The article below talks about China and copper.
There’s an interesting situation in the copper market, as concentrate scarcity and China’s massive refining capacity have pushed refining and processing fees to record lows and eroded traditional annual pricing.
China’s aggressive hoarding of raw materials challenges competitors, drives Western smelters into distress, and increases the need for new, different contract models.
The industry is preparing for a difficult next year in a situation that, according to the article, some analysts have described as an industry survival struggle.
At the heart of the tensions is China, where the copper industry has continued to expand even as annual fees plunge and spot charges turn negative, meaning processors are effectively paying miners to process ore. While some smelters in China have racked up large profits this year, there have been closures in the rest of the world.
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According to the tweet, copper is close to a big breakthrough.
Its demand is growing in infrastructure work, electric cars, and energy grids – and according to the tweet, there’s no reason for excessive pessimism now.
https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1995262682161955126
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