Plug’s good momentum continues in Europe.
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Today, it’s Plug’s turn for a business press release, straight from the US.
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And another press release from Plug’s home market is coming regarding a cooperation agreement.
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The Arkadia eFuels project is progressing. Awaiting FID. Plugin electrolyzers and project size 240MW.
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Has this been posted here already? Chinese share of the electrolyzer market. The enthusiasm is high, but the efficiency of PEM electrolyzers doesn’t quite yet reach Western figures.
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Precisely because of this Chinese eagerness, the Americans should strengthen their own critical technology industry so that they don’t completely fall behind the Chinese and the rest of the world. Trump specifically wants industrial investments in the US, so it’s strange if factories and jobs aren’t acceptable to Plug and similar operators. Even just to secure energy self-sufficiency in the future.
Get the subsidies in order and distribute the agreed loans, and the markets will take care of the rest.
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Tomorrow we’ll see if Plug will have a ‘kaboom’ or even a ‘bloom’ based on the numbers 
We can anticipate this in the same way we used to anticipate Nokia’s results back in the day; we should prepare Plug-cocoas and pastries.
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Yeah, now it’s an important earnings report. The company doesn’t need to do wonders here, but the direction must remain the same and the electrolyzer sector must continue on its growth path. The elimination game for electrolyzer suppliers has begun, so now the wheat will be separated from the chaff. Based on social media, electrolyzers have indeed been delivered well, as has a new customer in the material handling sector.
The symposium is on 18.11.
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Magic words Data-Center mentioned 
But this part requires a bit of chewing..
“In connection with this initiative, Plug will suspend activities related to the Department of Energy loan program and reallocate capital toward higher-return opportunities across its hydrogen network”
It remains to be seen where the money for the Texas and NYC hydrogen plants will be pulled from now, or if it will be pulled from anywhere. That is, if the loan doesn’t actually come through. This will likely increase pressure on profitability for electrolyzer equipment sales volumes and margins.
But otherwise, positive development for Plug’s future businesses.
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Q3 is out. It’s hard to say what to think about this right away..
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Here’s something pre-digested to listen to.
My own opinion is that Q4 should be loaded to the brim with expectations… Whether they are met remains to be seen.
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So, that was the minimum performance.
Key takeaways:
- Electrolyzer sales $65m. Very good and continuous growth. Next quarter, this figure might already be around $90m. I am quite confident about this business. In addition, material handling is growing.
- The gross margin ±0 target is Q4/25, and management did not back down from this target. It is a really important milestone to achieve.
- EBITDA has been heavily adjusted because the wording had changed from “form by the end of 2026” to “during H2/26”.
More on those data centers. Time will tell if hydrogen fuel cells work economically in them. Roughly, if the price of hydrogen is $5/kg, then we would be competitive with current systems against diesel (in the US). But new fuel cells bring about a 20% improvement in efficiency, which is quite a home run in many applications. In some previous slides, Plug had new fuel cells coming sometime in '26 or '27. And at the same time, in the US, there are still tax benefits for acquiring fuel cells, and the Trump administration has not removed this support.
I don’t want to raise too many hopes regarding this, but it’s possible that in some data center backup power projects, the H2+fuel cell combination will start to be on par with diesel. Thanks for that goes to the development of the entire hydrogen sector. But yeah, time will tell how this turns out.
Often, you immediately notice whether a business idea is stupid or not. For example, fast charging battery cars with hydrogen was a bad idea, because fast charging electricity is already too expensive in the US. That was immediately clear, but data centers…
Here is a discussion by the username hydrogenbull on fuel cells as backup power for data centers. Although the username is quite neutral (muhaha), it mainly discusses Bloom Energy’s situation and natural gas. An important point here is the fact that gas turbine manufacturers are sold out until 2030, and the importance of backup power in the US will significantly increase in the coming years. I assume that peak shaving will be done more in the future than now (=electricity will be generated with backup power during expensive electricity periods, like back in the days). Anyway, it’s worth reading that thread.
https://x.com/thehydrogenbull/status/1973800202214780935?s=19
Edit: The symposium is definitely worth following.
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Thanks Jukka for the info. I hope you will also come here to tell us in advance when Plug is an investment-worthy company. Just so that no one who has already invested in the company loses their money unnecessarily.
If one sells at a loss now, and you only come afterwards to say that Plug is now investment-worthy, then the “smart money” will already be tied up in Plug by then, and the biggest price increase will likely already be behind us.
The only advantage for a small investor is to be ahead of institutions, that is, if there is trust in the company. However, waiting can also take a long time.
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Look at Jukka.
I do claim that you cannot tell, using backward-looking graphs, whether a hydrogen sector company is uninvestable or not, because you don’t know enough about the hydrogen sector. It was the exact same situation with Tesla, when you boasted that the company would sell 20 million EVs a year. Everyone who followed the automotive industry knew that was nonsense, and that’s how it turned out. The hydrogen sector is the same thing, but the other way around.
The following image is strongly related to the claim above:
We can talk about explosive growth. Europe is following suit, and in those markets, Plug is in a strong position to win orders. Plug’s order book currently stands at about 240MW of electrolyzers, which is almost as much as the total amount previously installed. And the tunnel is 8GW in size, which is a significant thing now that the markets have started to move. Proof above.
You want to push the mantra that Plug would be an unprofitable company even at higher volumes, and I certainly don’t agree with that. Everyone should remember that Plug has GW-class production capacity, and according to the CFO, the company’s muscle is sufficient for approximately 4 billion in annual revenue. I do claim that the margins will be well in the black when volumes increase.
Plug has been an excellent investment over the past 6 months, as the CFO predicted. It’s from these levels that the big returns are made. This can only end in either bankruptcy or great success, but that’s what risky growth investing is all about. And I will certainly remind you in the coming years if it happens to be the latter.
It’s starting to look like, in addition to material handling and the electrolyzer sector, a third growth driver is emerging, and more on that in the next message.
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I haven’t previously given much value to the data center business, as it has felt too distant an operation, timewise. Plug has done projects with several operators in past years, and Andy has previously hinted that the first small-scale installations will be done at the end of 2025. This is starting to feel a bit more current, so I decided to link this here:
https://x.com/Stock_Pursuit/status/1988295690972451172?s=19
Plug Power $PLUG works with data center developer ECL according to industry reports and ECL has already brought an all-hydrogen powered data center into full production with the ECL-MV1.
It’s the world’s first off-grid, hydrogen-powered modular data center that operates 24/7 with zero emissions, minimal noise, and a negative water footprint.
It offers a 10x increase in energy efficiency with a power usage effectiveness of 1.05 and a 7x improvement in data density per rack, which is ideal for AI high-density demands.
That early one is expandable in 1 MW increments and supports high-density deployments up to 75 kW per rack which is a ton of power availability and above industry standards. ECL says it can deliver new facilities in under 12 months, rather than the usual two to three year traditional data center builds.
There must be a non-disclosure agreement with ECL and Plug. There are no official releases from either company I could find on the relationship but the industry websites mention the two.
Plug Power’s CEO has been mentioning the hyperscalers data center tests for over a year.
“So, when you look at the three major data center operators, Plug is engaged and planning some initial deployment and tests with all,” Plug’s CEO Andrew Marsh said on a conference call in early 2024.
Plug Power has been doing tests with all three major hyperscalers(industry sites speculate Google Amazon, Microsoft) for a long time for auxiliary and backup power.
Hydrogen power is planned to be scaled to 1-2GW data centers at the Houston ECL TerraSite. It was scheduled for 50MW by this summer. The higher GW’s are a four year timeline.
It will probably take that long to move to zero-carbon green hydrogen using electrolyzers that convert water into hydrogen and oxygen the CEO said.
This ECL Houston TerraSite-TX1 which I highly assume is using atleast some Plug hydrogen fuel cells because of the source mentioned relationship and Plug’s product expertise. Industry sources say ECL used Plug fuel cells for their MV-1 data center. This TerraSite is planned for 1GW and can expand to 2GW! It’s a great case for more hydrogen powered data centers as this is still very early stuff.
I found multiple sources including Berkshire Hathaway’s BusinessWire that confirm the end size of the TerraSite data center with a cost of $8 bil. There are partners investing. It was already scheduled for 50MW in the summer.
ECL has signed Lambda as the AI cloud provider. That’s enough proof of concept to me the hydrogen power can scale. It appears to be enough for the hyperscalers too according to the Plug CEO too. ECL also uses Tesla batteries.
The Plug Power big data center deals timing prediction was spot on. Late 2025. They just announced a major data center deal this week. This has been orchestrated and there is the possibility all three hyperscalers follow through it appears which looks pretty big.
According to the AFCOM’s State of the Data Center 2024 survey, only 16% of respondents believe hydrogen-powered data centers are gaining traction while 59% believe solar power is gaining traction and 28% believe wind power is gaining traction.
So, this is also a contrarian trade where the upside for these hydrogen power companies is looking high as the data center industry has already been catching on.
All the alternative power, fuel cell and $PLUG bears and shorts have been looking in the rear-view mirror. Power is a critical need right now and for the future. There are no rear-view mirrors with the overwhelming consensus on projected surging demand for power.
Here is some more from the ECL CEO.
ECL CEO Bachar said his company plans to take advantage of solar power to overcome limitations in data center siting imposed by the limits of the hydrogen transportation infrastructure.
In an arrangement he calls “behind the meter, over the fence” an ECL hydrogen-powered data center would be located next to a large photovoltaic plant, which in many cases are overproducing at certain times of day and are in curtailment or selling at low rates.
“We are planning to put data centers next to those sites and connect a direct feed from the fields, solar or wind,” he said. “So, we come to those sites and say, okay we’ll put the data center right next to you and we’ll take all the power that you can give us behind the meter. Don’t even touch the grid. We don’t care about the grid.
PLUG has around a 30% short interest. It sort of reminds me of EOSE EOS Energy Enterprises with the sentiment dynamic. There was a clear path being built to grow but EOSE was highly shorted. EOSE actually seemed to have way, way more bulls early on from my anecdotal experience on this app. So, that speaks even more for the warped bear view on hydrogen fuel cell stocks adding to the contrarian setup.
-BusinessWire Sep 25, 2024 ECL Announces World’s First 1 Gigawatt Off-Grid, Hydrogen-Powered AI Factory Data Center
Full Disclosure: I am long PLUG stock and call options and FCEL stock and calls and Bloom Energy BE
Strongly related to this technology:
Energy Vault, PG&E Announce Successful Calistoga Resiliency Center Energy Vault, PG&E Announce Successful Calistoga Resiliency Center
Energy Vault is now operational and has capabilities. The fuel cells were supplied by Plug Power:
Plug Power Inc. | Energy Vault selects Plug Power to Supply 8 MW of Hydrogen Fuel Cells as part of hybrid microgrid back-up system for PG&E and the city of Calistoga https://share.google/Ej7jT7NPuB8qroOZt
Not directly related to Plug, but here’s a good example of how such an isolated system works excellently under optimal conditions. Here, the end-users are just cars.
A small town in Washington state makes its own hydrogen fuel for only $4 per kg - Driving Hydrogen A small town in Washington state makes its own hydrogen fuel for only $4 per kg - Driving Hydrogen
Plug’s Hydrogen Days on 18.11 are worth following. Regarding data centers, we will probably hear more next year about what kind of market might be emerging in the coming years. The pieces are starting to fall into place.
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This would greatly interest me too. For years, the company has promised these various GW/MW-class orders, but for one reason or another, they don’t materialize into euros.
So @everlaastia: Can you say how much confirmed order backlog Plug has in euros from now until the end of next year?
Nonsense. Tesla bulls certainly boasted that 20 million would be sold and 50k Semis would go per year. Even the latest claim is completely soft, because Tesla can only sell Cybertrucks in the thousands per year. It’s unrealistic that more trucks would be sold than pickup trucks… The CT is a bad product, but that segment is also struggling. For example, Ford is considering ending production of the F150 Lightning. Furthermore, everyone is making negative net profits with battery cars (including BYD) and sales drop immediately if subsidies are removed.
EV Sales Plummet in October After Federal Tax Credit Ends https://share.google/gJsatxATb05U1o8TG
Still doesn’t sound very healthy. In addition, the release of the Tesla Semi has been delayed again. Why? My claim is that there IS NO demand, but you will probably tell some other story.
I have often written in the energy chain that societies need several different energy distribution channels. This picture is strongly related to that, and probably also explains why the Americans removed the BEV purchase subsidy:
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1989781951784292547?s=19
Have fun with car charging in that environment. The same is ahead for us in Europe. A Toyota driver in a hybrid will laugh even more in the future. Hydrogen has the same logistical advantages as fossil fuels (although technically more difficult to implement, which increases costs).
So, Jukka, I ask you now, which is more important to Americans: AI or the fact that some guys can drive an electric car. We all know the answer and in hindsight, the billions in subsidies for electric cars have been a fool’s errand. Europe is struggling with the same issue. And emissions can no longer really justify anything, but energy independence certainly can.
The above statistics are strongly related to the Trump administration’s behind-the-meter policy. And that, in turn, is very strongly related to Plug in a positive sense.
Because these are like real projects. In technical projects, payment milestones determine when and how much the supplier can invoice the customer for the equipment. Payment milestones are agreed upon with the customer, and they are almost always linked to an important step in the project. I wouldn’t be surprised if the final payment milestone was linked to the successful completion of a site acceptance test, where the customer has confirmed that the delivered equipment operates as agreed.
Electrolyzer projects are highly dependent on how the actual construction work progresses at the site, and Plug can do nothing about that. Due to all this, we cannot reliably calculate which quarter the revenue of a particular project will fall into.
240MW is roughly 360 million $ by gut feeling.
For example, the CEO has taken half of his salary this year in company shares, and he didn’t do it out of the goodness of his heart. From my perspective, the company’s management has shown confidence in the company’s future.
Well, we won’t have to suffer for long until this becomes clear (Q4/25).
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Why would an investor believe that Tesla Semi production would start “any minute now” when the project has been delayed by at least 5 years and macroeconomic factors have turned against it?
And yes, in Nikola’s case, my point was only that the demand for Nikola’s hydrogen trucks is greater than for electric trucks, which it was. Undeniably so, the ratio was roughly 1/3 BEV and 2/3 FCEV.
Don’t these figures actually indicate that losses are shrinking drastically, thereby significantly reducing the threat of bankruptcy? Or rather, does anyone even believe in that bankruptcy?
The company itself writes this:
With ongoing reductions in cash burn and access to total available capital, the Company is well positioned to support operations and achieve its EBITDAS-positive target in the second half of 2026.
I happen to have this news in front of me:
It just so happened that the company recently delivered a 100MW project to Europe. Is it a coincidence then that the company has predicted achieving gross margin breakeven in Q4/25? Could it be possible that volume increases profitability? As is typical with mass production, when materials are not the determining factor.
That GALP project is 4x bigger than the Portuguese project delivered a year ago. This is the growth rate, whether you want to believe it or not. Jukka, you should reflect a bit on this market growth rate.
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Regarding that latest news that Plug is starting to cooperate with a data center, it’s only about the fact that a non-binding LOI has just been sent, meaning nothing has been agreed upon yet; it has only been decided that the matter will be discussed.
It has been quiet regarding the Finnish projects, and next year a decision should be made on what the company will do or not do. The plans for the plants coming to Finland certainly sound huge, as Plug would 20-fold its own hydrogen production with the Finnish projects.
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