Here is Kati’s interview, which at one point turned into a political platform for ensuring the competitiveness of Finnish industry. 
Topics:
00:00 Start of the year
00:30 ERP (Toiminnanohjaus)
01:15 Execution
01:55 Carbon tariffs
03:55 Structural change
07:10 Data centers
07:42 War in Iran
09:55 U.S. demand
11:30 Impact of data centers
13:13 Low-carbon ferrochrome
Here is Kati’s interview, which at one point turned into a political platform for guaranteeing the competitiveness of Finnish industry.
A few observations regarding the Outokumpu CEO’s otherwise commendable interview:
- Finland has the cheapest electricity in Europe; instead of just being the cheapest country, Finland successfully competes with Sweden and Norway.
Politicians really need to consider future employment impacts and where electricity prices are headed if these data centers keep coming in large numbers in pursuit of cheap power. Outokumpu and heavy industry will certainly suffer, but how will the ordinary person manage with their electricity bills?
I personally don’t understand those fears regarding data centers. These companies are coming here specifically because of the affordable electricity. It is therefore also in their interest that electricity remains affordable in the future. There is a huge amount of permitted solar and wind power plants. Okay, there is a shortage of baseload power, but that will also start to come online if electricity prices rise from here. There are alternative forms of production for this as well, so we don’t have to wait 10 years for nuclear power. Let’s try to get investments into Finland now that it is actually possible for once.
Well, it is quite relevant to be concerned about the price of electricity, whether you are a consumer or especially if you are the CEO of Outokumpu.
Indeed, in the US, new large-scale consumers—at Trump’s insistence—participate in creating energy production/reserves, thereby helping ensure that the matter isn’t left solely to the assumed market mechanisms to handle at some point in the future.
Outokumpu has certainly participated in the controlled expansion of energy capacity throughout its long history in the community known as Finland.
They even tried to invest a few hundred million euros into increasing nuclear power capacity. However, Fennovoima collapsed, along with the money invested by Outokumpu and other shareholders.
Additionally, Outokumpu might be irritated by the fact that the electricity tax rate for industry, including Outokumpu, was raised.
And to attract data centers, after some political debate, it was decided that their electricity tax would remain unchanged instead of being raised similarly.
Furthermore, to finance the lower electricity tax for the aforementioned data centers, it was decided that a mining tax would be created in Finland.
Likewise, the electrification support for industry was scrapped.
Outokumpu has acted quite professionally and responsibly, and Ter Horst spoke well in the interview.
I also think that Data Centers, with their massive construction projects and various maintenance jobs, are a good addition to our declining country.
The challenge is simply trusting that the markets are capable of managing electricity prices within a reasonable average price and standard deviation.
The FUTURE is the risk, because it just doesn’t seem economical to build steady production.
But let’s keep our fingers crossed that the markets handle things quickly, even with those Wärtsilä engines to level out the peak prices.
After all, we all remember when experts enlightened us that Jaska went and hosted a sauna evening for his friends, and demand was just high enough that Pera’s Trailer Generator Ltd’s bid of 73.5 c/kWh went through. Then Pera pulled the starter cord, and the markets gasped at the high daily price, while secretly enjoying it and smirking at their income statements.
Now to the matter at hand.
The verdict is to Reduce as the share price has reached neutrality.
Inderes: 5.5 (Accumulate) → 5.8 EUR & Reduce.
Risk/reward ratio is balanced
Relative to the historical through-the-cycle earnings level, the stock’s current valuation stands at a P/E ratio of approximately 11x and an EV/EBIT ratio of 8-9x. We consider these valuation multiples to be relatively neutral, as the through-the-cycle earnings level is clearly higher than the current earnings performance. The expectations baked into the current share price are also reflected in the fact that the stock’s pricing offers only a low free cash flow yield of approximately 5% relative to the realized average free cash flow of the past ten years. Thus, in our view, the current valuation already reflects expectations of structurally improved earnings power, which we consider justified given the changed market fundamentals. Overall, we find the stock’s valuation justified, the forecast risks balanced, and thus the risk/reward ratio neutral.
In my opinion, it is quite good that Outokumpu does not invest directly in power generation. We are talking about a steel company and a ferrochrome mine, not an energy company.
Instead, Outokumpu has sought to reduce its electricity (and other energy) consumption and has made investments in these areas. There are certainly still investment targets to be found on this front as well, but it is good that there is strict discipline regarding investments, so that they don’t have to resort to various share issues and thereby hit the owner’s wallet.
It might be worth listening to that interview again, as Kati was merely hoping for a clear long-term industrial (and thus energy) policy for this country, where it is clearly stated what kind of activities they want to encourage in this country to improve opportunities for everyone.
A few of my own highlights from the press conference:
Summa summarum: Q1 could have been better (Europe!!), but the market direction as a whole is good now. Based on the above, I’ll throw out my own Q2 EBITDA forecast: Americas €55m, FeCr €35m, and Europe will also bounce clearly into the black at €20m, so my own Q2 EBITDA forecast/guess is €110m. The positive development should continue in Q3 and Q4, taking seasonality into account of course, but it looks good. Furthermore, if peace could be achieved in Ukraine and Iran in the near future, one could expect a quite significant jump in both European demand and earnings levels, as well as the share price.
Outokumpu Executive Sold Shares for Over 400,000 Euros | Arvopaperi
Outokumpu announces that Johann Steiner, the head of its Americas business area, sold company shares worth over 400,000 euros.
I was left holding almost a million of those weird shares.
Today, new protective measures have been approved in the EU.
Morgan Stanley update, which doesn’t directly refer to Outokumpu but to two European competitors, as well as the market situation.
Boldings are my own, but briefly, the current situation in Europe is reflected in the share prices, including:
-significantly reduced imports -40..-50%
-increased prices approx. +20%
-Acerinox is more interesting than Aperam due to US production (like Outokumpu), prices +20% vs Europe
Aperam shares fell over 3% on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stainless steel maker to “equal-weight” from “overweight,” citing a less asymmetric risk-reward profile following a recent re-rating in the stock.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the Luxembourg-based company to €52 from €48, even as it cut the rating. The brokerage said the first leg of Europe’s stainless steel recovery was “largely reflected in estimates and valuation.”
“We downgrade Aperam to EW after the re-rating,” analysts said, adding that the European stainless structural reset “remains intact, supported by policy,” but price and spread momentum “has paused.”
European stainless steel imports fell 40% year-on-year in the first quarter and 49% quarter-to-date in the second quarter, the note said.
Quota utilization averaged below 50%, which the brokerage said had muted the impact of stricter safeguard measures set to take effect on July 1.
European prices have recovered 22%, or €518 per metric ton, from a September 2025 trough, while spot spreads have risen 18%, the note said. However, the pace of price increases has slowed since March, with prices leveling out in May.
Morgan Stanley said Aperam’s normalized EBITDA ambition of €700 million to €800 million was “broadly reflected” in 2027 and 2028 consensus and the brokerage’s own expectations.
The brokerage forecast Aperam EBITDA of €481 million for 2026, €717 million for 2027 and €794 million for 2028, compared with consensus estimates of €513 million, €714 million and €788 million, respectively.
The brokerage forecast 2026 earnings per share of €2.20, rising to €4.39 in 2027 and €5.16 in 2028. It projected net debt falling to €414 million in 2028 from €978 million in 2025.
Morgan Stanley said it now sees greater medium-term upside in [Acerinox](Investing.com Mobile Apps for Android & iOS), which it rates “overweight,” citing the Spanish company’s US stainless steel exposure, where spreads remain about 20% above European levels. The brokerage raised its Acerinox price target to €18.40 from €15.50.
Aperam’s bull case scenario was raised to €72 per share from €67, while its bear case was unchanged at €19.
The brokerage set its base-case price target using an EV/EBITDA methodology with a target multiple of 6.4 times average estimated 2027-28 EBITDA, in line with the historical average of its closest peers.
Aperam’s stock has a consensus price target range of €30 to €65, with 33% of analysts rating it “overweight,” 50% “equal-weight” and 17% “underweight,” Morgan Stanley said, citing Refinitiv data.
Thanks Opa for the link and the highlights. Certainly, the situation in Iran and the sharp rise in energy prices have brought caution to end-demand. Perhaps now that an agreement is being reached and energy prices have started to decline significantly, demand will also pick up. Price development, on the other hand, has been heading in a good direction. Maybe the “next leg” will come from the removal of these uncertainties; at the latest, it would come if a decent peace could be achieved in Ukraine as well.
The EU intends to expand CBAM to include products containing steel, among others. This supports both EU industry and Outokumpu. Based on the press release, the entry into force could be at the beginning of 2027. So, the Commission’s proposal is out now, and trilogue negotiations with the Council and Parliament will start ASAP.
Market news from the domestic front - Steel trade is red hot: “The strongest year ever is underway,” praises a wholesaler
The stock price currently seems to reflect, in particular, the retreat of nickel from its previous levels. This is likely temporary, as I understand Indonesia still has strong restrictions in place, and demand vs. production is at a level where inventory levels are decreasing.
I had missed this reason for the drop in nickel prices. It’s about a rumor that Indonesia would significantly increase its quota for the rest of the year in July—meaning nickel supply would increase clearly compared to the beginning of the year. The coming days should show whether the rumors hold true or if the change is much more moderate, which would certainly swing nickel back higher. Here is a fresh article discussing this topic: Nickel: Market on the Zero Line, and a Perfectly Timed Rumor
The development of the nickel price matters for the share price, but I am personally more interested in the development of Outokumpu’s business and market situation. It is clear that nickel has an impact there as well (alloy surcharges, timing of purchases, stocking/restocking)—in any case, the market environment is starting to look very favorable for Outokumpu in both Europe and America starting from July 1st. I personally believe this will be reflected very positively on the bottom line this year, and next year, good results should come right from the start of the year.
EDIT: Adding comments from the Indonesian minister, in which such an increase is denied. https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/energy-ministry-denies-report-of-approving-360-million-ton-nickel-output-quota
Acerinox has released its Q2 results, showing a clear improvement compared to 1H 2025 or Q1 2026. European weakness continues, but perhaps the bottom has been reached; development is expected despite the summer season.
The stainless steel division has performed very positively during the quarter, reporting an EBITDA of €154 million, compared to €82 million in the previous quarter and €78 million in the second quarter of 2025. The start-up of the P4 line at Acerinox Europa following the fire in the second half of last year, together with the efficiency measures adopted, have made it possible to increase production and improve margins. In the US, the stainless steel division (NAS) remains the group’s driver of growth.
Outlook for the third quarter
Supported by the solidity of the business in the US and the progressive improvement in the European market, Acerinox forecasts that the EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 will be slightly higher than that of the second quarter, despite seasonality and scheduled maintenance shutdowns.
Acerinox earns €77 million in the first half, overcoming the €18 million losses in the same period of 2025 - Acerinox Stainless Steel Manufacturer Radware Captcha Page
Quarterly Information - Acerinox Stainless Steel Manufacturer Radware Captcha Page
Thanks,
I thought Acerinox’s Q2 report made for quite encouraging reading for an Outokumpu investor.
The first observation is that Acerinox’s EBITDA margin was again clearly better than Outokumpu’s. However, this does not necessarily speak only to operational efficiency. Acerinox has gradually shifted to become more of a specialty metals company, whereas Outokumpu remains clearly focused on traditional stainless steel. This is also reflected in profitability.
Even more interesting, however, were the market comments. In its report, Acerinox states, in practice, that:
European stainless steel prices are on the rise,
imports into Europe have decreased significantly,
CBAM and the new EU trade defense measures that came into effect at the beginning of July appear to be working,
despite the fact that normal summer shutdowns fall in Q3, the company expects Q3 EBITDA to be slightly better than Q2.
If the European market is indeed turning for the better, Outokumpu could benefit from this development relatively even more than Acerinox. Outokumpu’s earnings are more sensitive specifically to the recovery of the European commodity stainless steel market, whereas Acerinox’s earnings are also supported more by its US operations and higher-value-added specialty alloys.
Therefore, the most interesting part of Outokumpu’s Q2 report will not be the Q2 result itself, but management’s comments on whether the price increases, the reduction in imports, and the EU trade defense measures are already visible in the order book and the outlook for Q3.
Here are Petri’s preliminary comments ahead of Outokumpu’s Q2 results this Thursday. 
Outokumpu will release its Q2 report on Thursday at approximately 9:00 a.m. We forecast that the result has improved from the beginning of the year, thanks to slightly increased delivery volumes and higher prices. We expect that in its short-term guidance, the company will project stable volumes, but an improving level of profitability for the seasonally-affected Q3 in Europe due to rising prices.
Unfortunately, there won’t be a live results update for Outsa this time, as I have to cover for a colleague during the morning results call 
