TL;DR
New technology to enrich ferrochrome ore from 53% content → 65%. And further development that could potentially even yield pure chromium, which is currently produced mainly in Russia and Kazakhstan (from chromium oxide).
Current ferrochrome is about 1200 per tonne, at 65% content it would be about 1600 per tonne and pure chromium 9000 per tonne. All in euros, then.
Timeline for the pilot 2027, production plant then 2029–2030 (this is for the 65% content). Pure chromium “sometime later”
That would be really great, indeed…
Well, Outokumpu’s future is likely ultimately more in ferrochrome (=the chrome mine) than in the stainless steel ruined by the Chinese..?
The major shift is that previously Outokumpu used two-thirds of its own ferrochrome itself, but now the share of external sales has risen to nearly half. In the future, the ratio could flip so that a clear majority of the ferrochrome would be directed for sale. There should already be enough capacity for that as it is…
Competing ferrochrome production has been faltering in places like South Africa and Zimbabwe due to high energy costs. Demand is shifting towards Outokumpu more than before, also because the company produces ferrochrome with significantly lower carbon emissions. The company has introduced new products to its range, such as medium-carbon (i.e., lower-emission than before) ferrochrome and low-titanium ferrochrome…
Outokumpu aims to produce high-purity chromium metal (High Purity Chromium), which typically has a purity level of 99.9% (3N). The market price for 3N chromium metal ranges between $5.00–$6.50 per pound ($11,000–$14,000 per tonne).
Outokumpu is currently priced like an old-world steel company, but Project Moon gives it a genuine option to transform into a high-margin materials technology house – and this option is still almost free in the market.
Realism: hype or a real breakthrough? Why would this be more credible than 90% of “breakthrough projects”
inderes It would be nice to hear the thoughts of someone smarter on this prospect.
Quite a few stocks have a so-called hype premium, meaning future earnings are priced in. If the development is successful, these premiums are often still underestimated.
It’s great that Outokumpu has moved—or rather, is moving—into this same league. You wouldn’t have expected it from this industry, inventing something concretely new for basic production. I also agree on the pricing; the option can be exercised practically for free, and the stake on the table is small. The return potential, on the other hand, is truly significant.
In my opinion, this upturn has not yet been fully priced in, and Outokumpu will continue its rise. The climb will, of course, be bumpy.
According to forecasts, the European stainless steel market will grow at a CAGR of ~4.4–7% (depending on the source), and the value will rise from ~19–22 billion dollars (2024/2025) toward 30–93 billion dollars by 2030–2033. Growth is influenced by CBAM, new safeguards by July 2026: smaller quotas + higher tariffs, as well as green transition investments (hydrogen technology, renewable energy, and zero-emission construction).
In the United States, the outlook is stronger and growth is faster: Stainless steel production grew +7.6% in 2025. The US market will grow at a CAGR of ~6.1–6.6% during 2025–2034, with the value rising from ~43 billion dollars (2025) to over 73 billion dollars by 2034. High import tariffs steer demand toward domestic producers and support volume growth. Federal investments in bridges, water, transportation, and the return of production to the USA increase demand. Key sectors include the automotive industry (lightweight structures), electronics, engineering, duplex grades, as well as the hygiene and process industries.
It remains to be seen how the development of chrome production will be priced in during this upturn.
Here is a quick read from SalkunRakentaja about Outokumpu that only takes a few minutes. 
The Trump administration’s 50 percent steel tariffs on EU imports remain in effect, although Outokumpu’s American production is primarily local.
A greater risk lies in the fact that the full effects of CBAM and safeguard tariffs will only materialize with a delay of several months. If European industrial demand does not recover during 2026, investors may find they have bought into a promise that takes longer to be fulfilled than estimated.
Subheadings:
If Outokumpu were to transition from being a ferrochrome producer to a pure chromium producer, the impact on Outokumpu’s earnings capacity would be dramatic. Outokumpu would transform from a capital-intensive cyclical commodity company into a capital-generating cyclical company. In this scenario, Outokumpu would be valued at a significantly higher level. The assessment is AI-generated.
Current Situation (2025)
Production capacity: 530,000 t of ferrochrome per year.
Actual production/deliveries: 395,000 t, containing 53% chromium → 210,000 t Cr/year.
Revenue in the ferrochrome segment: €462M.
Adjusted EBITDA: €138M.
Hypothetical Future for Pure Chromium Metal
210,000 t of pure chromium metal per year
Market price for pure chromium (99% Cr):
• China (SMM): 9,130 USD/t
• USA/Europe: 12,300–13,200 USD/t
Potential revenue (conservative average): approximately €1.9 billion (vs. current €462M from ferrochrome).
Incremental revenue of €1.4 billion/year from sales alone.
Profitability Impact:
Current EBITDA margin in ferrochrome ~30% (€138M / €462M).
Pure chromium is a specialty metal (uses: aerospace, defense, superalloys), with a price per ton of chromium that is 2.5–4 times that of ferrochrome. Outokumpu’s own mine + low raw material costs + potential proprietary low-carbon technology (which they are currently developing) would enable high margins.
Estimated EBITDA Impact: If production costs increase (additional processing: oxidation/reduction/electrolysis) but not in proportion to the price, the segment’s EBITDA could rise to €500–800M per year (vs. current €138M). The group’s total result (current adjusted EBITDA ~€167M in 2025) would improve dramatically.
The EU Commission has approved a legislative proposal, the ‘Industrial Accelerator Act’, regarding public procurement and public support schemes.
A good addition alongside January’s CBAM directive and the tariff reform coming into effect this summer (zero-duty import quota halved, 50% tariff on the excess, creation of the ‘melted & poured’ rule).
- supporting lead markets for EU-manufactured and low-carbon products.
The act introduces preferential treatments related to EU manufacturing and low carbon in public procurement and public support schemes to increase demand for European industrial products. Such products include cement, aluminum, and net-zero technologies, such as batteries as well as solar, wind, heat pump, and nuclear power technology. Regarding steel, the act proposes specific low-carbon benefits to create market demand. This aims to increase confidence and predictability among investors, promote innovation, and make clean steel a key part of the EU’s industrial future.
Outokumpu is indeed in favor of the project, with the following development suggestions.
Apparently, that third suggestion refers to the idea that EU requirements for components should also apply to the steel they contain.
Outokumpu further encourages the Commission to
- introduce an EU low-carbon steel label, which would enable steel manufacturers to demonstrate their products’ carbon dioxide emissions and help buyers choose cleaner materials,
- introduce low-carbon criteria for stainless steel as well, so that the criteria take into account differences in manufacturing processes and also consider the high emissions in the supply chain, and
- expand Made in EU requirements to also cover steel, as excluding products containing steel from the list of preferred European products can lead to high-emission steel being imported into Europe, resulting in final products with a large carbon footprint being manufactured here.
Outokumpu supports the EU proposal to boost industry | Outokumpu Outokumpu tukee EU:n ehdotusta teollisuuden vauhdittamiseksi | Outokumpu
Here are some more comments from the EU steel lobbyist Eurofer regarding the steel-related aspects of the Industrial Accelerator Act.
The hope is for a tighter framework to ensure the involvement of EU companies, presumably in case the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) and tariff reforms are bypassed. The EU has a tendency to be a bit naive, so there really should be more foolproof systems, considering that today’s global trade policy and geopolitics are what they are—i.e., heading in a different direction than before.
Edit: It’s worth noting that according to this, the IAA would only require a 25% low-carbon share in public procurement, which would correspond to about 5% of total consumption. This could also be based on non-EU trade agreements.
The proposal offers some welcome foundations that could stimulate demand for low-carbon steel.
But the demand signal remains limited.
The proposal requires 25% of steel in public procurement and public support schemes to be low-carbon - yet it does not require that this steel be produced in Europe.
This matters.
25% of public procurement represents less than 5% of the total steel market, and public support schemes vary widely across Member States.
Without stronger and clearer demand signals, these measures may not provide the long-term certainty needed for major industrial investments.
To make lead markets work, the EU must ensure it supports low-carbon steel made in Europe, not made in third-countries.
The Industrial Accelerator Act is a welcome start - but it must go further to increase demand for green steel made in Europe.
EUROFER therefore calls for:
a clear definition of “Made in Europe” for steel, based on steel melted and poured in the EU and EEA
After years of adjusting the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the EU has realized that carbon leakage does not only occur at the raw material level, but also at the product level.
This is an obvious issue that could have been addressed when CBAM was being designed and implemented.
However, some kind of plan is emerging, with a timeline of January 1, 2028, which is just over 1.5 years away.
It is reassuring, however, that now that a fix is known to be in the works, an EU producer no longer needs to flee in terms of EU demand, and on the other hand, an importer has time to make investment decisions regarding their production if they wish.
It is still personally unclear to me whether an EU producer’s exports outside the EU are burdened by the EU’s carbon regulations and their fees.
These are typically higher than elsewhere in the world, and at the same time, EU producers’ competitors live quite leisurely in terms of the carbon world, not only for raw materials but also for the entire rest of the ecosystem…
According to the draft, a broad group of products particularly those with high steel and aluminum content will be included in the mechanism as of January 1, 2028. Within this scope, many items will fall under CBAM obligations, including fasteners such as screws, bolts, and nuts, as well as pipes, tanks, construction components, and railway materials. In addition, more complex products such as engines, pumps, white goods, industrial machinery, electrical equipment, and certain commercial vehicles will also be covered.
It’s said that steel 232s are being adjusted.
IF I understand Fast Markets’ interpretation correctly, then in Calvert, the melted & poured roster can come from Mexico with lower tariffs. And if the final products have sufficiently few metals, the metal content is no longer sanctioned by 232 tariffs.
And metal-intensive products will not enjoy 50% tariffs on their metal content, but 25% tariffs on the full value of the entire product.
It’s difficult to say what all this would mean for Outsa’s Americas/MX segment, or if it means anything in practice…
But I suppose this will become clear at the latest during the earnings call, which isn’t until May 12th.
Also, “products made abroad but entirely with American steel, aluminium and copper will be subject to lower tariffs of 10%,” according to the proclamation, and products made of 15% or less steel, aluminium or copper will no longer be subject to Section 232 metals tariffs.
Derivative articles substantially made of steel, aluminium or copper will pay a flat 25% duty on their full value, according to the presidential proclamation on Thursday, a departure from the previous method of collecting 50% tariffs on just the metals component of a product imported into the US.
Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States – The White House Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States – The White House
The EU’s new restrictions are moving forward. Negotiators from the Council and Parliament have reached an agreement and will proceed to votes in May. The new, stricter restrictions will come into force after the current ones expire, i.e., on July 1, 2026.
In connection with Aperam, Jefferies estimates that CBAM and new EU trade defense measures will bring an approx. €200m EBITDA increase (pricing, capacity utilization).
Aperam’s EBITDA (2025: €340m) is estimated to rise to €484m in 2026 and €650m in 2027.
Significant increases, then, and logically Outokumpu Europe will enjoy similar benefits.
The steelmaker is projected to see up to €200 million in EBITDA gains from European Union policies, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and new trade defense measures.
These policies are expected to support pricing and utilization starting in the second half of 2026, with a potential utilization uplift of 7% to 10%.
For the full year 2026, Jefferies estimated EBITDA at €484 million, rising to €650 million in 2027. First-quarter 2026 EBITDA is expected to reach €86 million, up from €67 million in the previous quarter, driven by seasonal volume recovery in Europe.
This improvement comes despite mid-single-digit million-euro headwinds from higher energy costs.
Significant impacts estimated for Aperam’s profitability. A similar effect is also seen for Outokumpu; the earnings level is now set to take a leap. Earnings forecasts and target prices will continue on an upward trend. Outokumpu also commented today on the development of EU safeguard measures.
I still can’t help but be amazed, however, that the EU—which has been able to talk about carbon leakage forever—has still left such basic products as pipes, steel wires, or steel bars out of the new legislation…
If things are as Outokumpu mentions in its release.
A clear change from the old:
-melted & poured rule
-roughly halving the tariff-free quota
-roughly doubling the tariff on imports exceeding the tariff-free quota
While free trade is a good principle, it is nonsensical to be the sole torchbearer.
The unpredictability of 2020s geopolitics has proven this once and for all.
Six months after the regulation enters into force, the Commission will evaluate whether the scope should be extended to cover additional steel products, such as pipes, certain steel wires, or forged steel bars, and may propose legislative changes if necessary.
Didn’t Outokumpu for its part divest these types of products a few years ago and now focuses on flat products?
Long Products was sold, of course; I was mainly thinking from the perspective that protected stainless steel isn’t needed in Europe if processed goods made of stainless steel are imported into Europe.
Pipes and other quite basic products would, in my opinion, have been fairly easy to include.
Then a more complex story is products that contain stainless steel and steel, such as washing machines.
The Americans certainly knew how to take this into account, and it’s no more complicated than requiring importers to provide a breakdown of raw materials according to a bill of materials and applying tariffs. At least that’s what I remember from Harvia’s sauna heater business. The tariff on steel to the US is higher than on the heater.
Analysts are currently quite optimistic about stocks’ future, which is also reflected in Outokumpu’s share price performance. However, forecasting institutions do not share the same view – for example, the International Monetary Fund has even hinted at a recession risk. Geopolitical risks still exist, although the escalation of the situation in Iran has calmed down for now.
Outokumpu’s stock is indeed supported by several factors: EU safeguards, Germany’s stimulus package, and expectations of growing defense investments. A significant reduction in short positions may also contribute to price formation.
The question arises: is the chrome mine already priced into the current share price? If plans for chrome processing progress, could spinning off the mining operations and listing them as a separate public company create more shareholder value? Chrome production and processing differ significantly as a business from stainless steel manufacturing, so a separation could make the mine’s value more visible.
In any case, the role of shorters has clearly diminished
Outokumpu is no longer among the most shorted companies, and there is only one shorter left on the Financial Supervisory Authority’s (Finanssivalvonta) list. The share of shorted stocks has dropped to approximately 0.51 percent of all shares.