Outokumpu - A continuous rollercoaster or a serious investment?

Some working document states that the new basic principles announced earlier in the autumn are still included, such as the 2013 volume level (approx. 50% of current import levels), after which a 50% tariff (now 25%) and the melted & poured rule. The transfer of unused imports to the next period would have been reinstated.
The 1.1. schedule is not realistic, perhaps 1.4. could be possible

A leaked draft report from the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade shows lawmakers preparing to back the European Commission’s plan for a 50% over-quota duty on steel imports, while allowing quarterly carry-over of quota volumes, Fastmarkets learned on Thursday November 27.
The draft text from November 24, which has not yet been adopted and remains subject to amendment, confirms that tariff-free steel import quotas would continue to be based on 2013 reference volumes, so about 50% below currently available allocation, with any out-of-quota shipments facing the sharply higher 50% duty, in line with the first draft, published on October 7.

The document reconfirms the Commission’s “melt and pour” origin verification requirement for all covered imports.

In the new leaked draft, one of the suggested amendments read: “To ensure continuity and to avoid supply disruptions, carry-over of unused quarterly tariff quota volumes to the following quarter should be permitted. This would provide the necessary operational flexibility while maintaining the overall effectiveness of the measure.”

Market sources, however, believe the deadline of January 1 is not realistic, since the draft needs to go through a “complex negotiations process” before entering into force.
“Procedures in the trilogue take quite some time,” a source in the EU steel market said.
Several market sources suggested that April 1 was a “feasible” deadline for adoption of the new trade regime, while the Commission declined to comment on the timeline.

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Let’s hope the protection package doesn’t get watered down in essential parts during the process. Nothing will be ready by the beginning of the year, that’s for sure, but hopefully already before June - that would be a positive surprise.

Market situation news from the EU after a long time. Prices and orders are rising according to the news, especially in the north.

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Today, information also emerged about proposed changes to CBAM, which would add products like car parts and washing machines to the scope of CBAM. This is also positive for Outokumpu and for EU industry in general.

(https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-strengthen-carbon-levy-high-emission-imports-crack-down-attempts-dodge-it-2025-12-17/)

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Outokumpu also progresses on the cost-saving front, co-determination negotiations proceed

While hiring staff is inexpensive, reducing it is not; 35 million euros in costs will be recorded in the 4Q2025 income statement and paid from 2026 cash flow.

35 / 650 million euros = 54,000 euros per person, on average.

The restructuring program is expected to affect approximately 650 full-time positions by the end of 2027, including negotiations concerning approximately 450 positions. Negotiations in Finland, Sweden, and Germany have now concluded, resulting in a reduction of 139, 109, and 120 positions, respectively. Negotiations in other countries are still ongoing and are expected to affect approximately 80 positions.

Outokumpu anticipates recording a restructuring provision of approximately EUR 35 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 as an item affecting the comparability of operating profit. The majority of the EUR 35 million cash flow impact is expected to materialize in 2026.

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Something the so-called “market” is, however, currently pricing into the share price, obviously once again…

  • “We didn’t see a shock on the price side because demand is much lower than it used to be,” the sell-side source said. “There’s much less stainless steel produced in Europe [as well].”

…meaning, to put it simply, the earnings power after the next six-month period..?

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From an investor’s perspective, this makes Outokumpu an interesting and more stable alternative compared to other European producers, adding to the competitive advantage provided by Outokumpu’s ferrochrome mine.

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https://www.outokumpu.com/fi-fi/news/2026/outokumpu-aloittaa-yhteistyon-norsk-efuelin-kanssa-muuntaakseen-hiilisivuvirrat-synteettiseksi-lentopolttoaineeksi-%E2%80%93-mahdollistaen-200-000-tonnin-suorat-paastovahennykset-outokummulle-3702556

Norwegian company Norsk e-Fuel is planning to build a synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF) production plant next to Outokumpu’s steel plant in Koivuluoto, Tornio. Outokumpu has signed a letter of intent (LOI) with the Norwegian company responsible for financing the project to implement the facility.

– “The investment value would be approximately 1.2–1.5 billion euros and it would create an estimated 250 new local jobs,” says Norsk e-Fuel’s Chief Commercial Officer Lars Bjorn Larsen.

Upon completion, the plant would use carbon monoxide, generated as a side stream of the steel plant’s ferrochrome production, to produce e-fuel.

For the steel plant, the impact would be a reduction in CO2 emissions, corresponding to ~20% of the company’s global CO2 emissions. Outokumpu would also benefit financially from this arrangement, but these figures are not being disclosed yet.

The project’s feasibility study will begin this year. Construction is intended to start in 2028, with production set to be operational by 2032.

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Kauppalehti today 16.1.2026

Jefferies raises Outokumpu’s price target to 5.00 euros from 4.50 euros, downgrades recommendation to Hold from Buy.

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Here are some Jefferies notes regarding the price target increase.

It sounds like the increase was made based on future estimates (starting from 2H2026 / 2027), as both 4Q2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates were lowered.

Jefferies downgraded Outokumpu to “hold” from “buy” rating, citing a lack of near-term earnings momentum despite a sharp share price rally and a partial valuation re-rating, in a note dated Friday.

The downgrade was issued after the stock rose about 62% over the past year, outperforming the broader European steel sector, which gained about 37% over the same period..

The brokerage cut its adjusted EBITDA estimates across the forecast period, lowering fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA by 10% to €171 million from €189 million.

Jefferies also reduced its 2025 EBITDA estimate by 9% and its 2026 estimate by 7%, citing weaker-than-expected conditions in Europe, muted demand in the Americas despite higher prices, and the impact of an enterprise resource planning rollout.

The brokerage said European macroeconomic conditions remain soft, with demand subdued, import penetration elevated and pricing showing little sign of recovery in the near term.

Jefferies said Outokumpu’s shares are now trading above their 10-year average valuation, with the stock valued at 6.2x next-twelve-month EV/EBITDA compared with a historical average of 5.3x.

The brokerage said this re-rating has occurred without corresponding upgrades to near-term earnings expectations, which Jefferies said it does not expect in the first half of 2026. As a result, the firm described the risk-reward profile as balanced and said clearer evidence of sustained earnings recovery is needed to support a more positive stance.

Despite the downgrade, Jefferies raised its price target to €5 from €4.50, reflecting a higher valuation multiple rather than improved earnings expectations.

The new target is based on a 5.3x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to a mid-cycle EBITDA assumption of €450 million, in line with the company’s long-term average valuation.

At the time of the report, Outokumpu shares were trading at about €4.78, implying roughly 5% upside to the revised target.

Jefferies said it does not expect incremental capital returns in 2026 and noted that any recovery in stainless steel demand is likely to come later in the cycle compared with carbon steel.

The brokerage said earnings momentum is expected to pick up only from the second half of 2026 into 2027, reinforcing its decision to downgrade the stock to Hold after its recent outperformance.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jefferies-downgrades-outokumpu-says-62-stock-rally-hits-price-ceiling-4451079

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As many as two new names for Outokumpu’s board: OP’s Ritakallio and ex-IP-Nokia Lukander.

Ritakallio as Vice Chairman of the board; it seems clear that Ritakallio will spend a year learning the ropes and in a year’s time will rise to become the Chairman of the Board.
Jordan is already stepping down from his role as Chairman of the Stora Enso board this spring.

The Nomination Board proposes that the current members of the Board, Hilde Merete Aasheim , Heinz Jörg Fuhrmann , Olavi Huhtala , Kari Jordan , Päivi Luostarinen , Jyrki Mäki-Kala , Petter Söderström and Julia Woodhouse , be re-elected as members of the Board, and that Timo Ritakallio and Jenni Lukander be elected as new members for a term ending at the close of the next Annual General Meeting. In addition, the Nomination Board proposes that Kari Jordan be re-elected as Chairman of the Board and Timo Ritakallio be elected as Vice Chairman.

Proposals of Outokumpu’s Shareholders’ Nomination Board to the Annual General Meeting 2026 | Outokumpu Outokummun osakkeenomistajien nimitystoimikunnan ehdotukset varsinaiselle yhtiökokoukselle 2026 | Outokumpu

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If this news truly reflects Outokumpu’s demand situation as well, things have started to look quite good since December, and 2026 is starting to look very positive again. To clarify, the news is about carbon steel, but it also mentions stainless steel.

It was reported that all major European mills are currently running at utilization rates between 97% and 100%, a trend that follows the full booking of EU stainless steel mills’ order books by December 2025, which pushed delivery times into late spring 2026. The key drivers behind this tight capacity situation include the introduction of the EU’s CBAM, as well as planned steel tariffs and quota reductions.

( EU steel rolling capacity nears full utilization amid policy shifts-Yieh Corp Steel News )

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Reporting from this source should always be taken with a grain of salt, but they were already reporting this before Christmas, including the rise in prices.
Outokumpu’s (Outsa’s) guidance (late October/early November) and description of Europe were quite weak.

EU Stainless Steel: Prices Rise, Lead Times Get Longer

As early as Tuesday, we reported on price increases for stainless steel in the European Union-driven by the CO2 tax CBAM starting on 1 January 2026 and the planned introduction of a successor to the EU safeguard measures from 1 July 2026.

This has led to increased demand for stainless steel produced in Europe, and significantly longer delivery times for stainless steel are now being reported, particularly from southern parts of the EU. Due to limited domestic production capacities, producers there are reportedly already fully booked until April 2026.

Stainless Steel Prices in Europe Rise

According to market sources, stainless steel prices in Europe have increased by up to EUR 100 per tonne in recent days. Further price increases are expected. Domestic stainless steel producers are also showing reluctance in responding to inquiries and are currently attempting to shift orders and deliveries into spring 2026 in order to capture the expected price increases resulting from the CO2 tax CBAM, which will start on 1 January 2026.

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It’s good to see that CBAM and the new import restrictions are supporting prices even in the current sluggish demand environment. We’ll have to see how durable the impact of CBAM is. It would be important that the price increase isn’t just due to a precautionary reduction in imports, only for things to revert once it’s realized that the mechanisms didn’t actually affect the market. So, it’s crucial to see that these mechanisms genuinely work and impact imports in the long term, ensuring that the price rise is on a sustainable foundation. Of course, demand growth in Europe would also help, so let’s hope for an economic recovery at the same time :crossed_fingers:

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Yes, exactly:

https://gmk.center/en/news/the-eu-india-trade-agreement-does-not-provide-for-an-exemption-from-cbam/

…EU legislation already stipulates that the bloc cannot grant special treatment to certain countries with regard to the cross-border carbon adjustment mechanism.

…India has criticized the European CBAM since its announcement in 2021…

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This kind of “freely machine-translated” notification came from the US yesterday:
(=in a uniquely summarized version, of course)

  • Analysts have raised their price expectations for Outokumpu Oyj…
  • Analysts have weighed recent varying expectations, including JPMorgan’s higher €4.20 price target, as well as more cautious revisions from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. These factors have been factored into slightly adjusted assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and forward P/E ratio…

The aspects of the analysts’ comments in a so-called “short verse” (in a nutshell), then:

  • Recent research regarding Outokumpu shows conflicting views.

…Some see room for upside with the recalibration of estimates and targets, while others focus on execution risk after the latest quarterly report…

So, in plain terms, it’s still worth keeping an eye on this at these price levels, even now…

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CBAMs and import quotas will improve Outokumpu’s position starting this year.
Before the financial statement release, analysts are projecting earnings per share of €0.2 or slightly more for 2026. 2027 forecasts are widely scattered, but by then, the results should already be significantly higher.

In my opinion, the CMD was to some extent a missed opportunity; bigger moves could have been made to maximize shareholder value.
Even stupider was promising shareholders a stable/growing dividend in a hot market when the industry is very cyclical (as has been noticed in hindsight :frowning: )

Inderes has published a dividend article

Inderes is the most negative out of 11 analysts regarding the dividend. The lowest dividend forecast for each year is from Inderes.

In my opinion, maximizing shareholder value would require swifter moves (share buybacks when cheap, divestments, etc.), but Outokumpu’s management and board are committed to this path of investing a little and paying a stable/growing dividend.
It remains to be seen whether the dunce cap goes to Outokumpu, as they have promised to pay at least a stable dividend and then pull the rug out from under our feet.
Or will the dunce cap go to Inderes, when the company promises to pay a stable/growing dividend and the analyst predicts a drastic dividend cut for the next three years.

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The extension of the EU safeguard measures ending in June is making positive progress. Finalized in the spring? Further information in the links, the latter of which also mentions tightening the “melt and poured” rule:

(European Parliament approves new measures to reduce steel import quotas-Yieh Corp Steel News)

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If I remember correctly, Inderes has consistently forecasted dividends significantly lower than they turned out to be. Well, we’ll soon see if they get it right this time. On the other hand, Outokumpu’s CEO said in the latest update that potential investments could eat into the dividends. So, a bit of a warning that promises might not be kept after all.

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Dividend Policy

Outokumpu updated its dividend policy on June 10, 2025.

In accordance with the dividend policy, Outokumpu aims to pay a stable and growing dividend over time while maintaining the ability to invest in transformative initiatives with a minimum internal rate of return (IRR) of 20%, taking into account the cyclical nature of the markets.

A quote from Outsa’s website. That is how it is officially stated.

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At the CMD, it was clarified that the baseline is the previous dividend (€0.26). Considering the comments, the improving market situation, last year’s dividend and results, and the fact that no major investment has been announced yet (e.g., in high-nickel grades in Avesta), I believe the dividend will be kept at the same level. It is of course possible that an investment announcement (the aforementioned Avesta investment being the most likely in my view) could still be made, which would change the situation and result in a dividend cut.

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