In my opinion, this upturn has not yet been fully priced in, and Outokumpu will continue its rise. The climb will, of course, be bumpy.
According to forecasts, the European stainless steel market will grow at a CAGR of ~4.4–7% (depending on the source), and the value will rise from ~19–22 billion dollars (2024/2025) toward 30–93 billion dollars by 2030–2033. Growth is influenced by CBAM, new safeguards by July 2026: smaller quotas + higher tariffs, as well as green transition investments (hydrogen technology, renewable energy, and zero-emission construction).
In the United States, the outlook is stronger and growth is faster: Stainless steel production grew +7.6% in 2025. The US market will grow at a CAGR of ~6.1–6.6% during 2025–2034, with the value rising from ~43 billion dollars (2025) to over 73 billion dollars by 2034. High import tariffs steer demand toward domestic producers and support volume growth. Federal investments in bridges, water, transportation, and the return of production to the USA increase demand. Key sectors include the automotive industry (lightweight structures), electronics, engineering, duplex grades, as well as the hygiene and process industries.
It remains to be seen how the development of chrome production will be priced in during this upturn.