Ostin/myin juuri äsken (Osa 8)

I sold all my Springvest shares today.

I bought them back in the day at a price of over €9 and now managed to sell at €9.5, a small profit + dividends paid. I didn’t want to sell at a loss, so at least in my mind, this left a positive taste.

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Bought 100 shares of Qt Group at 32.90 each…
This could soon be at double or half again… :wink:
Still no sign of a profit warning…

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Starting the year by dumping Gofore at a big loss and adding more Detection Technology

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Because these days I act more and think less. I made an allocation plan sometime in the middle of last year and I’m sticking to it.

Addition:
In accordance with this, I went and bought Paradox at 150 SEK. I had a price alert on it. The trend is a really “nice” downtrend where you probably shouldn’t buy, but there it went.

It’s more of a passion pick than an investment. Nightwish must have written the song “Dark Passion Play” to reflect this kind of acquisition.

Opening:
Duolingo last week

To a fresh start for the coming year:
Last week, put big stacks of cash into funds:

  • NN Denmark (this is my Novo Nordisk bet)
  • NN Sweden
  • NN Norway
  • NN Emerging markets
  • Storebrand renewable energies

This is going to be good. Last year’s return was 18%, so I’m starting to get some confidence in my touch.

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First trades of the year. Sold almost all Wärtsilä, Metso and Kalmar today, mostly inspired by an article in Kauppalehti – which basically said that the upside has been pretty much exhausted. I bought into the idea. Sales approx. €100k.

In their place, bought Kesko and UPM for roughly the same amount. Because of dividends and in case there might be a bit more upside, or at least less downside.

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A tiny addition of Paradox Interactive under 150 crowns.

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Trump trade since they promised to buy some loan-related stuff to get interest rates down etc. Bought a bit more UWMC… it’ll probably go south, I guess… it really is a very volatile stock.

Should I cash out that trade now or hold… that is the dilemma

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I jokingly put in a sell order for BNP Paribas at €87 this morning, and the crazy market apparently bought my shares right before the close! Nuts, just over a month ago you could easily buy at the €65–€67 levels (reported here too). For a bank that size, +30% in less than two months is quite a lot. Who knows, maybe Nordea will perk up too and rise to even €20. :cowboy_hat_face::handshake::collision::partying_face:

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I grabbed more Grab for my portfolio both yesterday and another batch today. The position grew by 20%.
Purchase prices $4.87 and $4.89. Average price is now just over $5.

I’m still considering further additions. But I’ll likely have to wait for more numbers :thinking:
However, this is a long-term investment and there will be plenty of volatility. Trying to take advantage of buying opportunities.

Reasoning in the thread.

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A new line in the portfolio with a 4% weight: Zoetis Inc.

Zoetis is the world’s largest pharmaceutical company focused solely on animal health and well-being.

Originally Pfizer’s animal health business, it was spun off as its own public company in 2013.

Zoetis develops and sells medicines and vaccines (e.g., for skin problems, pain/osteoarthritis, parasite control), genetic tests, and technologies for animal breeding and monitoring, as well as medical devices and services, but medicines are practically what Zoetis lives off of.

The portfolio currently includes 17 different blockbusters (drugs with sales exceeding $100M).

The pipeline is likely the strongest among animal medicine manufacturers. According to the company’s own estimate, there are currently 12 potential blockbusters in development.

Most of the company’s revenue comes from companion animals (cats, dogs, horses), but in addition, the second segment is livestock (cattle, swine, sheep, poultry, and fish).

Although Zoetis operates in over a hundred countries, more than half of its revenue comes from the US.

Throughout its history, it has grown revenue significantly faster than the market, with a CAGR of 8% compared to the industry average CAGR of 5%.

While revenue has about doubled over the last 10 years, earnings per share (EPS) has sevenfolded in the same time!

Gross margin increased from 64% —> 71% and EBITDA margin from 17% —> 34%.

So the shop has grown quite nicely and best of all: the growth has trickled down specifically to the bottom line!

Regarding profitability, Zoetis is a reasonably well-oiled cash machine:

FCF Margin: 33.54%

ROE: 49.87%

ROIC: 20.92%

Profit Margin: 28.21%

Historically, the stock has traded at an average of 37-38x earnings, and today it is available cheaper than ever before in its time as a public company, roughly at a P/E of 20.

Why is this?

The biggest single reason for this is likely the decline in Librela sales. It is Zoetis’s award-winning “miracle drug” intended for the treatment of osteoarthritis and pain in dogs.

It received marketing authorization in Europe in 2021 and in the US in 2023. It has sold over 25 million doses. In Q3 2025, Librela sales fell 11% yoy. The reason is likely that, although there is no scientific proof of this, suspicions have arisen in the dog community about serious side effects (collapsing, hind leg problems, skin and respiratory problems, incontinence, anemia, and even deaths). There is even a Facebook page where dog owners collect these cases.

I visited a Finnish dog forum to read about these, and although many have praised the drug since 2022, suspicions also arose that Librela is linked to, among other things, incontinence and anemia.

Phase IV of the drug (post-marketing surveillance and research) should be completed any moment now.

Another reason is likely the decrease in vet visits in the US and the uncertainty about their return to a growth path.

Third is likely the confusion with guidance last year. Q2 forecasts were raised and Q3 were immediately lowered regarding revenue, though the EPS forecast held. According to Q3 guidance, the year would end just over 1.5% positive in terms of revenue, but EPS growth would still be about 15%.

Additionally, the Q3 Q&A mentioned signs of Librela sales leveling off.

Let’s also mention Lenivia, which has already received marketing authorization in Canada, and the European authorization is expected in the early part of the year. It is a drug for dog osteoarthritis and pain, just like Librela.

It works (lots of fancy medical terms) differently. It is longer-acting and the dosing interval is longer.

Both are injections: Librela 1x/1 month and Lenivia 1x/3 months.

I’ve been following this company since last summer/autumn and getting to know it along the way.

Having muddled through everything here, I just see this as a situation where a great business is now available at a reasonable price.

It doesn’t help to downplay the problems, and the most valuable information is the skeptical analyses, writings, and arguments, but in my opinion, none of these have fundamentally changed the big picture, and I don’t see the problems as structural.

Now the position is open, and my current gut feeling is that the weight in the portfolio could be increased in the future, so let’s continue following and see how it goes!

Lastly, but not least, I must mention that there is nothing more important in the world than animal welfare, so the shop fits this hippie’s portfolio perfectly!

This came out as quite a stream of consciousness vomit of text, so I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information above.

And P.S. P.S.

By the way, I also made another investment for this coming year:

Even though it stings the stingy person [in me], I decided to test out a Seeking Alpha premium subscription for a year.

I’m getting tired of constantly playing with private tabs on different devices and hoping that the bits don’t leak so I get caught reading multiple articles without registering :smiley: Let’s see this year and think if it has brought value for its price.

Have a good weekend and a successful investment year to everyone!:victory_hand:

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Teeny-tiny starter positions in Oroco and Energy Fuels.

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I reduced my position in Nightingale and bought Micron Technology, Inc.

My portfolio is too heavily weighted toward Finland, and I need to reallocate stocks to other parts of the world for the longer term, provided the market conditions continue to look sensible in this regard.

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Someone here had mentioned selling Ondas, so I went to check how it was doing after a long while. It’s been on quite a sharp rise lately, so I sold my entire position, about 2% of my portfolio, with a return of just under 300%. These will offset the upcoming Intellego loss.

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A Hims sell order has been placed on Nordnet at $29.99 USD; these days, I place my orders while the market is closed. If it doesn’t go through, I’ll lower the price on Tuesday morning. It was originally bought for that more wretched reason—greed—rather than the need to secure a livelihood, which seems to be the basis for better decisions. At the same time, I am realizing the largest capital losses of my life; Novo Nordisk now takes second place.

The Hims stories have lost their luster for me, and the money will be moved to wait for more necessary use in real life.

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I added 50% to my HIMS position at the 31.75 price level.

The market is short-sighted; the share price is currently being dragged down, perhaps by the aggressive pricing of the Wegovy tablet. HIMS’s GLP-1 dominance is temporarily under pressure.

However, obesity treatment is becoming a new megagenre for which traditional players lack sufficient resources. HIMS is the leading telehealth player in this evolution. And HIMS isn’t just a GLP-1 platform; the new therapeutic areas have been very well selected, and I expect exponential growth in the near future.

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Added 25,000 shares of the Australian stock exchange gem :australia: EQ Resources (EQR.AX) at a price of 0.095 AUD. I see big potential here and now was the opportunity to increase its weighting in the portfolio.

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Buy & sell: Springvest

An impulsive risk investment on Wednesday afternoon after a very brief look at a price of EUR 7.50. Small weight for the equity savings account (OST) (3.0% of personal portfolios and 1.1% of all).

I looked enough to see that Springvest doesn’t look completely hopeless even if the value of the Verge / Donut Labs connection were calculated as zero. Profitable and no debt; I didn’t notice any massive red flags. Valuation risk, of course, as well as the risk related to low startup “buzz” (pöhinä). As a bonus, a fact noticed afterwards: I bought below Inderes’ target price.

An equally impulsive sale on Friday afternoon at a price of EUR 9.00, while looking at the downward-turning share price and photos from Nordic Nano’s Imatra “factory.”

A return of slightly under 20% for a two-day investment. This turned into some light-hearted playing, which I certainly don’t recommend to anyone. Springvest might be a decent company, but maybe I’ll “really” invest in it another time when I’m better acquainted with it.

:doughnut: Regarding Donut Lab, I found a counter-FOMO argument for myself: In Hesari (Helsingin Sanomat), CEO Lehtimäki explicitly promised an IPO “at some point.” So, if it’s not a scam or groundless hype and things progress somehow, it should be possible to buy “donuts” directly. This doesn’t mean I won’t regret this sale later, of course.

On the forum, some have been completely sure that it’s a scam. Interestingly, for example, “Battery Doctor” (Akkutohtori) Heiska hasn’t reached such a drastic conclusion, but seems to consider it possible (albeit unlikely, almost unbelievable) that new revolutionary technology has been developed. A total scam doesn’t sound plausible for a company that has already raised millions in funding from the likes of Tikka and Siilasmaa. I’m more inclined to agree with this guess and will wait for more data.

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On Friday, I continued reducing leverage in my Nordnet portfolio:

Sold 200 shares of Framery at a price of €8.30

Sold 50 shares of Novo at a price of 378 DKK

The remaining 400 shares of Framery are now for sale at €8.39/share and the last 50 shares of Novo at 400 DKK.

Both are good companies, but I am reducing leverage and the number of holdings. Small profits from Framery compared to the €8 offering price. Good profits from Novo, with buys at 316, 313, 299, and 276, and sales at 330, 370~, 378~, and a future one at 400.

On the buy side, I added Inderes and Oriola to my equity savings account (OST), as that is where it is good to invest in dividend companies.

In my Nordea portfolio, a bit had truly gone sideways, and I wasn’t able to buy stocks last week before contacting customer service.

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First purchase: Franklin FTSE India UCITS ETF.

The intention is to gradually diversify my investments more geographically, as the Helsinki Stock Exchange still has a very high weight in my portfolio. In my opinion, India is an interesting market that I want to get involved in with a small weighting.

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Coffee stain on the paper, meaning I’ve jumped onboard Coffee Stain with a starter position.

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