But yes, your views regarding Olvi (and Teboil) are clear. Regarding your original comment, I am still simply of the opinion that Olvi will at some point have to make its own final reckoning/harakiri regarding its important Russian connection. I commented on your Olvi share price remark because many see the risk both financially and as moral distress. To avoid repetition, I wonât continue on this anymore.
Readers of this thread, rather invest in Nokian Panimo instead (I donât own it, JuhaR probably still does). Good products and domestic work.
Olvi and its shareholders are constantly paying a price for that connection. And the benefit derived from the business there is mainly theoretical due to dividend payment restrictions. But there is nothing to pity or call unfair about that.
A highly recommendable company, especially from a consumer perspective. Reasons why I have more money tied up in Olvi than in Nokian Panimo include:
Nokian Panimo lacks non-alcoholic beers in its selection.
In Nokian Panimoâs non-alcoholic products, sugar-free options are conspicuous by their absence.
At Nokian Panimo, the political risk is elevated in the sense that the operating profit is largely dependent on the small brewery tax discount.
Personally, I donât think at this stage of the conflict that now would be a good time to give away the Belarusian operations for free. Selling is not possible, and donating doesnât make sense right now. They should have withdrawn from Belarus quickly right after the war started, if thatâs what they wanted to do.
It doesnât seem like thereâs been any terrible reputational damage from staying in Belarus. Finns still enjoy Sandels, and there seems to be financing available for improvements to the Iisalmi factory and for acquisitions, despite all the ESG talk.
The war will end at some point, and then weâll see what happens to the Belarusian operations. Arenât Russian athletes slowly returning to the Olympics as well?
Personally, I donât see a financial risk, as the value of the Belarus operations is currently âŹ0.
I do understand that many donât want to touch the stock because of that connection, and it shows in the price stagnating. On the other hand, I believe that once they eventually get rid of the Belarus business, the risks will vanish and the share price will head to the moon.
Weâre starting to veer into politics, but even if peace is achieved at some point, I donât really believe that the Belarus business can return to anything close to what it was before. Itâs a problem that needs to be resolved. An exception, of course, would be a situation where Belarus breaks away from its role as Russiaâs lackey⊠Then again, the probability of that is quite non-existent, unless we see some more earth-shattering change of power in Russia.
And to get back to Olvi as an investment: I still value the Belarus business at zero. In spring 2022 and during the previous CEOâs tenure, Olvi should have acted faster and differently, but this is what we have to work with now.
Olvi plc is estimated to receive annual dividends of approximately 1â3 million euros from its Belarusian subsidiary (OAO Lidskoe Pivo) in 2024â2025. Although the subsidiary generates significant profits, dividend payments abroad are restricted by local regulatory requirements. In other words, this investment is not worthless at the moment. The AI reported on the past, but the same situation is likely to continue.
I suppose the solution to production problems would be additional capacity from other plants, although there would obviously be some transport costs involved.
Operating environment in Belarus There continues to be significant uncertainty regarding business operations in Belarus and financial forecasting. This uncertainty relates to, among other things, exchange rate developments, the unpredictability of the operating environment, local legislation and taxation, trade sanctions, and the functionality of payment transfers to Western countries. Olviâs subsidiary in Belarus operates independently, being responsible for its own procurement, for example. Furthermore, the IT operating environment has been separated. The subsidiary finances its operations through its own business cash flow. The restriction on dividend payments for Western-owned companies has been extended to 2026. Previously announced restrictions applied to 2024â2025. The regulations limit the maximum amount of dividends paid abroad. According to the current interpretation, the annual dividend that the Belarusian company can legally pay to the parent company is approximately 1â3 million euros until the end of 2026. According to the assessment of Olvi Group management, the currently known temporary restriction on dividend payments by the Belarusian subsidiary does not weaken the parent companyâs dividend-paying capacity. Sales restrictions on the shares of Olviâs subsidiary remain in force. Olvi does not have permission to sell the shares of the Belarusian subsidiary. We are monitoring the legislative situation and actively assessing the conditions and alternatives for operating in the market.
I wasnât questioning whether the Belarusian operations actually have value or not, but rather wondering which source the claim originates from that it has been estimated (by whom?) that Olvi would receive 1â3 million euros in annual dividends from Belarus in 2024â2025.
They are having trouble recruiting employees and therefore canât meet the demand. Perhaps Danes arenât willing to do shift work, or whatever the reason may be.
I am not a KHT auditor, but as I understand it, group companies are consolidated in the consolidated financial statements, and I donât believe intercompany dividends are shown there separately.
You can see dividends received from other group companies in the parent companyâs cash flow statement, which shows approximately 23 million euros per yearâroughly the same amount as dividends paid.
Group accounting always adds some new tricks to interpreting the results!
Thank you! The difference between the groupâs and the parent companyâs cash flows is now clearly visible. The flows of individual companies are not separated, of course, and the financial statements also state that the imposed restriction does not affect the groupâs ability to pay dividends. That claim would be bold if the restriction affected dividends received from Belarus. Capitalizing a subsidiary nowadays likely requires a permit for a sanctions exemption, so I have to assume the parent company has no intention of receiving dividends from Belarus. Iâm happy to be proven wrong.
Let me break it down for you: dividends paid by the Belarusian subsidiary (as mentioned, 1-2 million per year) do not show up in the consolidated financial statements (because all companies are consolidated into the group), only in the parent companyâs separate financial statements, and information regarding dividends received by the parent company can be found in the notes to the annual report.
The recapitalization you mentioned would mean that money is being invested into the subsidiary, but that is not the intention; instead, some cash reserves have accumulated there (which can also be found in the geographical breakdown). Soon we will have the 2025 figures, which are more interesting.
Last yearâs result of 81.8 MEUR was quite solid after Q3, considering a negative profit warning was still being predicted for the company at the end of the year.
âOlvi Groupâs operating profit for the 2026 financial year is expected to be 84â92 million eurosâ is quite soft. For example, OPâs expectation is 91.1 MEUR, which sits at the upper end of the guidance.
For comparison, a year ago the outlook for 2025 was: âOlvi Groupâs adjusted operating profit for the 2025 financial year is expected to be 82â90 million euros,â and the result narrowly missed the lower end of that range.
Quite neutral feelings about this interim report. That VV situation is indeed very difficult to assess/value. What is the probability that a meaningful dividend will ever be extracted from there all the way to Finland? If the war ends and sanctions are lifted eventually, then that value could perhaps be unlocked. Management is probably scratching their heads and wondering what other options there are, but very little is communicated outwardly. Someone here threw out a funny idea that the VV subsidiary should start using its own cash flow to buy Olvi shares and cancel them.
The earnings structure + guidance are less convincing the more I think about it. I dumped my shares at the open. I donât understand the positive price reaction. Iâll be waiting for a buying opportunity.
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