Further information and a profit warning (negari) have just been released:
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Quite interesting that 82% of shipments are ending, yet revenue drops from 32.8 million by only 4 - 5 million; meaning these remaining 22 trains per month would generate an annual revenue of 28 million euros.
Finding this a bit hard to believe right now.
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What does domestic rail traffic consist of? As I understand it, they have previously had import and transit traffic.
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A few posts above, there is a tracking update made by Ilkka, which I will quote here.
So, it only has traffic from Russia.
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Here are Petriâs comments on Nurminenâs profit warning.
Nurminen Logistics issued a profit warning on Thursday, driven by Russiaâs decision to significantly increase tariffs on rail freight destined for Finland. This did not come as a surprise to us, as we commented earlier on Thursday that Russiaâs actions would clearly increase forecast risks. We will update our forecasts in the coming days, and according to our preliminary assessment, there will be significant downward pressure on our earnings estimates.
EDIT:
Thanks, and good thing you mentioned it â Iâll post it on the Forum administration channel just in case someone is still around. 
Well, maybe Petri will get to it first.
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If someone has access to Maaseudun Tulevaisuus, there is a news headline now: âYara: Ammonia exempt from Russian railway tariff increases.â Of course, there are some import limits on ammonia from Russia now, so it remains to be seen if this still has an impact. 15 ammonia shipments to Uusikaupunki have been canceled this year, if I calculated correctly from there. (4 to SiilinjĂ€rvi)
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Savon Sanomat has new information on ammonia tariffs based on the previously mentioned announcement from Yara. The ministry is also commenting on the matter:
Ministerial Adviser Titta Berlin from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry states that the authorities interpret the 0.25 coefficients for ammonia and nickel as exceptions, not additional multipliers. This means that their tariffs will remain doubled as previously decided in April, and will not, therefore, increase eightfold. The exception coefficient is in effect until the end of October.
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Thanks for pointing that out, itâs been fixed now and should be visible without premium now
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Here are Petriâs comments on Nurminenâs North Rail initiating change negotiations.
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Is this maximum of 25 layoffs about half of the companyâs staff?
Regarding the subsidiary North Rail Oy, that does indeed seem to be the case. However, letâs keep in mind that the total number of personnel for the entire group was 181 people at the end of last year.
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The co-determination negotiations (yt-neuvottelut) are only at North Rail, not the entire company.
Itâs pretty harsh if the revenue drops by a few million as announced in the stock exchange release.
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It looks like thereâs at least a four-week break in traffic in Uusikaupunki as well, judging by the canceled trains, even though those ammonia shipments werenât supposed to be under any major transport constraints. (Letâs remember that in 2024, Uusikaupunki was completely without rail freight between mid-March and mid-August, and in 2023 there was a long pause before North Rail started operations altogether.)
Revenue would drop quite a bit if thatâs what theyâre planning. Of course, if North Rail were to, for instance, lease its own rolling stock to others, that would bring in some compensatory revenue, but perhaps not a huge amount per year.
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Regarding North Rail, it is worth remembering that you cannot just lease the equipment (locomotives) alone; you would also need to lease the drivers who have the necessary certifications. It is unlikely that someone like Fenniarail would train their drivers for those locomotives for short-term, temporary use. If the surplus wagons are fertilizer and ammonia wagons, there probably isnât much demand for them from other operators either.
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I think that out of that 32 million, only 4-5 million euros of revenue will remain.
And even that is a lot if you look at the actual transports completed.
Even though they announced in the stock exchange release that revenue would drop by that amount.
I still bet itâs a bit more than 4â5 million, but probably not more than ten. Even at Yaraâs plants, North Rail has separate shunting locomotives in both SiilinjĂ€rvi and Uusikaupunki. You donât just bring and take cargo with a line-haul locomotive (though, admittedly, you donât need a separate shunter in Harjavalta).
Of course, one could try to calculate it roughly since we know the transport routes and volumes; it was 32 million last year, but a bit less the year before at 28 million, and 24 million the year before that.
Well, itâs unlikely that North Rail leases its equipment to others, even though they themselves seem to have those two most recently arrived Dr21 locomotives as leased rolling stock from Operail. I donât think North Rail owns any wagons at all, and the ownership of the wagons is probably somewhere in Russia.
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Here is Aapeliâs preview report ahead of Nurminenâs Q2 results on Friday, July 24th.
Following last weekâs profit warning, we have significantly lowered our earnings forecasts for Nurminen Logistics for the coming years. The profit warning was driven by Russian tariff increases, which hit the volumes of the high-margin North Rail. In terms of earnings growth, the success of ramping up the intra-European rail business is becoming even more central. With the decline in the share price, we believe the potential of European traffic offers a sufficient risk-adjusted return expectation.
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As for North Rail, it is natural to consider the export duties as âfinalâ and, consequently, to view this business as lost. However, we have enough experience with Russiaâs decisions that I would not be at all certain that the same increases will remain in effect next year. One would think that fertilizer exports would bring in much-needed foreign currency for Russia.
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On the other hand, in the Vainikkala-Kotka case, those fertilizers arenât staying here; they are being transported elsewhere. Likewise, Russia can still earn money from fertilizer exports if the ship simply picks up the fertilizers from a Russian port instead. It was different in Niirala, where fertilizers were actually being hauled into Finland for sale, but I donât think Nurminen had any part in that. (FoxRail handled the shunting work there, and the fertilizer plant is right next to the railway yard.)
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