In recent days, HKScan has risen sharply due to the latest Q3 report. It is the first quarter in a long time in which it achieved a profitable result. This thread is for discussing what the future holds for HKScan.
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It only takes one sick wild boar to cross the border from Russia and the entire Finnish pig industry would collapse.
And I wouldn’t be surprised if some animal activist brought the disease here on purpose.
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The rise is only just beginning. As is the improvement in results. Whoever believes that the results will improve, should invest. The signs are good, though. Finland’s improvement is still in its early stages and €6 is still a long way for the stock. That’s the limit of what HK can achieve at best.
As for the plague, a sick pig has a long way from the border to the pigsty or even across the border. Something else will bring it if it does.
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Not followed by Inderes. I’m heavily invested myself, and the recent stock performance has certainly warmed my heart. In my opinion, if you believe in the turnaround, you can still get in.
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The latest InderesPod discussed companies’ long-term (approx. 10 years) business development opportunities. How do people here see HK’s business developing in the longer run?
I myself very strongly believe that meat will still be consumed 10 years from now, and on the other hand, I believe HK will be strong in the food market simply because a large company in this industry has better opportunities to also start doing new things. I justify this by saying that large-volume production facilities are financially significant investments, and a company like HK has the shoulders to carry out even large investments.
In principle, I would consider the company good and the business relatively safe, but the conflicting goals of the owners compared to those of investors (value is seen a little differently :D) certainly cause gray hairs.
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We’re rising again 
News?
Your comment made me google. Here’s a little help: Sikaa himoitsevalta Kiinalta joululahja HKScanille ja Atrialle – porsaanlihan tullit laskevat vuodenvaihteessa | Kauppalehti
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HKScan is also expecting an export permit for broiler chicken to China. Oh, when the news about China’s permit comes… we’re heading southeast. HK can’t mess up anymore. The biggest fiascos previously came from the Rauma broiler factory, when the production lines didn’t pull through as well as they should have for the already made cultivation/slaughter agreements. Significant losses were incurred. Now the situation seems different. According to articles, China and other parts of Asia offer better prices. Although logistics cost more. HK promised 3 million kg of pork during 2019. However, it’s worth noting that more has been exported. Next year, in 2020, over 9 million kg will be exported.
The share price has risen from €1.60 to €2.70 this year. Losses have already significantly decreased during Q1-Q3, and Q4 is expected to be the strongest in all areas.
Shares are currently trading at around €2.70, and own share buybacks ended on 12.12, after which there was a slight rest from €2.88 down to €2.49. Now it’s rising back to where it was when buybacks ended (€2.70). It seems that there’s faith in the stock and the turnaround without own buybacks. Perhaps it will be available for less than €3 for some time still. The company still has a lot of debt. Everything needs to succeed now. Waiting for good news from the turnaround company. A company that was already on the edge of a cliff but avoided falling into the abyss. The CEO gives great praise to Kariniemi. The difficulties in Rauma have thus turned into a great success, and the change in results will now largely come from there. Therefore, the export permit to China for broiler sales is now a very important success for HK’s business and thus for the value of the share.
Here’s a year-old news item.
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Today started well until it dropped 5% (after the initial rise). I was going to buy more during the day, but it had already risen so much that I didn’t buy. What was the reason for today’s behavior?
So it’ll probably still drop a bit?
I don’t believe in the bonus… It would be quite a surprise… You can’t really give a bonus when 200 people have been laid off… (HK also has pretty high severance pay) but it will come at the end of the first quarter of the year… Additionally, I hear that a lot of meat has been stored for China for the first quarter… That will probably bring in a lot of dough…
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Where did you hear this? I’ve tried to familiarize myself with the company, but I haven’t noticed anything like this. Do tell me more. 
https://www.lihakeskusliitto.fi/fi/suomen-sikamarkkinat-kriisissa/
That discusses the matter..
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I took a look at customs export statistics for January-October; the export of meat and meat products from Finland abroad has increased by +40% compared to a year ago, and the pace has clearly accelerated since the summer. Of course, the statistics don’t tell who exported what and where, but there’s a clear spike in the figures. This bodes well for meat companies in Q4.
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It’s good to follow the cash flow from the result, which is now the most important thing for HK.. the result needs to be hidden a bit now, but cash flow cannot be hidden..
The result should be moderate and the cash flow good, then it would have a positive impact. If there’s no positive earnings surprise for the first interim report, I would consider it a huge miracle..
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Here’s some news from December. Rauma is doing well now. Kariniemi brand.
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Exports are a good addition for Finnish meat companies, as they also take parts that Finns don’t use, such as trotters. But the money of the future will come from further processing, i.e., ready meals. Although I haven’t started to praise HK, I still believe it will be among the biggest risers this year… I believe in the new CEO and his ideas.
So, out with the unnecessary. Develop ready meals. Make production efficient. Each country as its own profit responsibility. Denmark having its own sales was also very good… before, Sweden took their profit, and Denmark had no profit responsibility… I bought with all the actions taken by Tiimari in mind… these actions should show in the results this year, and well…
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If you dig a little, you can find very detailed information about export countries and goods from the Finnish Customs website’s Uljas database. For example, here’s meat exports to China monthly from 1/2018-10/2019. Quite impressive growth percentages in 2019, and already significant business in terms of euros. It will be interesting to see the November statistics once they are released.
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