The Finnish Association of Shareholders has discussed the directed share issue with Nurminen Logistics and Ilmarinen. Although the situation is problematic in many ways in principle, the Association of Shareholders, having heard the justifications, is understanding of the share issue.
However, the company receives criticism for its use of the corona situation to its advantage by organizing a general meeting in which shareholders can only participate through an agent appointed by the company. Organizing a remote meeting would have been the correct way to hold the meeting in this situation.
This is an interesting company, at least in terms of its share price development and the difference in Inderes’ target price.
Petri’s target price a month ago was €0.35 with a sell recommendation, after which the share price rose from €0.7 to €1.4.
Does Petri have any educated guess as to why this company’s share price is rocketing to the moon like a proper SPAC?
Even with future forecasts, EPS isn’t expected to turn profitable before 2024.
It’s undeniably a very interesting ride right now.
To my eyes, the most rapid price movements seem to coincide with the release of KL’s (Konecranes and Cargotec) news. Nurminen also combines many factors that, at least in my experience, often link to such rapid turns, as the company is working on a turnaround in results, and additionally, the China train connection brings an interesting growth angle to it.
In addition to these operational factors, it can, of course, also be affected by the limited free float and other non-business-related factors.
Our chairman Rothovius held discussions with Ilmarinen and Nurminen. I am not fully aware of the content of the discussion, but my understanding is that the company’s financial situation was very weak at that time.
The work is in progress. A bit like the transportation of meat and fish products, which we haven’t heard anything about since the intention to start handling them was announced. Now you can throw in links to news / announcements if I’m wrong, and food products have been transported from Finland to China via rail.
My understanding is that these shipments are on hold due to the coronavirus. I believe China has had quite strong restrictions on rail transport imports and exports during the pandemic. So, the true development of demand for these will be seen after the pandemic.
From today’s Kauppalehti, the company is experiencing a very strong growth trend.
“Since the beginning of the year, container prices have now approximately tripled, and on some routes, even quadrupled.”
Now it looks good for Nurminen’s perspective - both the current situation and future prospects. Here are some excerpts from the Yle news story mentioned above:
– A year ago, six container trains a month were enough, now more than ten trains a month come and go through Vainikkala to Russia, summarizes Marjut Linnajärvi, Sales Director at Nurminen Logistics.
– Finland is currently an extremely reliable and fast transit country for European traffic. The current congestion in Poland will lead European and Chinese train operators to want to shift traffic through Finland.
– Over the coming years, traffic between Asia and Finland will increase tenfold from what it is currently, says Marjut Linnajärvi.
That would mean 6–7 trains would run daily between Vainikkala and China, transporting about 100,000 containers annually.
I wonder if @Petri_Gostowski is going to comment at some point on the recent news regarding Nurminen Logistics and its possible impact on forecasts. Or is it that there’s nothing to comment on because the company itself hasn’t officially announced anything.
News comments like these typically don’t meet the threshold for commentary unless they contain new information. It’s rare for them to do so, because if a company reveals new information, it should come via a press release.
Very strong short-term demand or intentions to increase train volumes in the coming years are not new information, as these have been hinted at, for example, in connection with H1 and with the recent financial targets.
A comprehensive report would be nice to read, especially now that the new targets are out. Petri referred to its release “soon” in the previous update in mid-September.
If the current figures in Inderes’ table, e.g., for revenue and operating profit %, were to ultimately prove correct, it would be a major failure for Nurminen in terms of their own targets. No other monitoring seems to be available, and the company itself provides very little information and uses verbal guidance (“significantly” / “clearly”). A challenging case for analysis.
When will Inderes comment on Nurminen’s situation? @Petri_Gostowski
On September 15, the company published its medium-term targets (2021-2023), expecting revenue to grow to EUR 200 million and EBIT to be 9%.
These targets significantly exceed Inderes’ current estimates (2023e EUR 136 million / 5.6%). It would be very interesting to hear Inderes’ comments on the company’s targets and potential forecast changes.
One interesting trade by large owners in October caught my attention, and a Kauppalehti journalist had even inquired about it:
In logistics company Nurminen Logistics, CEO Olli Pohjanvirta’s investment company ETL Invest sold its entire holding of 181,818 shares to Juha Nurminen’s JN Uljas Oy on October 18.
The shares changed hands at a price of 1.12 euros per share, bringing the total sum to 203,636 euros.
“This is related to a share transaction made over ten years ago. With this transaction, ETL Invest paid off debts related to the old transaction to JN Uljas Oy,” says Olli Pohjanvirta.
After the transaction, Pohjanvirta remains the sixth largest owner in Nurminen Logistics. Most of this is held under the name of Ruscap Oy.
