Which of those could be a target of a deal then? I thought this news might lift SSH, among others, and I bought some this morning, but it didn’t really rise significantly.
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Are there others besides F-Secure?
edit: which, after the WithSecure spin-off, is a cybersecurity consulting firm similar to Nixu.
Edit: or am I getting the companies mixed up?
What is achieved by that anger? Surely no one is forced to invest in any company; rather, risks have been taken of one’s own free will.
It’s a long road, but the company has been steered in the right direction lately.. Perhaps the reward will come yet.
Haa, thanks Mikael for these gems from the archives! Now that this investment thread is approaching its end, a little nostalgia may be permitted. And let’s just say, no lies were told at the IPO: as I see it, we were clearly Northern Europe’s largest security boutique firm +5 years after the listing, just as your slide indicated! 
And indeed, thank you for the cooperation over the years – Inderes always produced high-quality analysis, and even if we at the company didn’t always agree with the recommendations and prices, it was never due to a lack of analysis and understanding!
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Thanks to Kimmo as well for the sparring over the years! The year 2006 still represented a time when the person responsible for a company’s information security typically sat on the right side of the firewall server in the data center. When purchasing a certain cold call list, the information security decision-maker for Nordea was listed as a person with the title “janitor” 
(well okay, that was due to the poor quality of the list). In 2006, the revenue of the information security unit was 1.5 MEUR. Of this, 700 kEUR came from a single client project that ended unexpectedly at the end of the year. This was right after I had started as Sales Director for Information Security in November 2006 
It’s also good to remember the massive amount of work Timo Kotilainen did to clarify the information security strategy focus and professionalize Nixu’s practices in 2006–2013… and that in 2011, Nokia brought in >50% of the revenue… by 2013, not so much anymore.
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I followed this with interest because it was such a trendy field of the future that it was nice to invest in and be part of. In 2015, I took my first position since the price hadn’t really risen much after the IPO. A year later, I was looking to add more; at first, the buy order didn’t go through because there weren’t enough sellers. The next day, I had a scheduled call with an Osuuspankki investment advisor sometime after 3 PM—one of those annual calls they used to initiate back then. I didn’t place the buy order in the morning but after the call, and I asked if they recommended buying more Nixu, as I was planning to. Their comment was that the company was not “under coverage” for them, so they don’t recommend it to any client. I placed the buy order after 4 PM, and it was only partially filled because there were no sellers, but half went through. Later, OP started covering the company more closely.
I’ve been watching it ever since; I can’t say at all whether this 13 is a good price or if something better could have been possible. However, the total number of shares is quite small overall.
I’m wondering, where are the videos on the subject? We didn’t get a Finnish-language year-end review; it would have been nice to try and see if a small smile was trying to break through, as the sale was already quite far along. But where is the video about the tender offer and other interesting opinions on the price, the future of other companies of the same caliber, and is there even theoretically any competing offer coming?
It’s been fun to follow the company’s journey from the sidelines for these 8 years—even though I don’t understand much about the industry, it always sounded good, right down to the company’s name.
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Unfortunately, we didn’t have time to film any videos on the subject last week, as the news broke during last Thursday’s busy earnings day and more results were already coming in on Friday. However, here are our comments on the topic:
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We have now managed to make a video on Nixu as well, hopefully it is still of use even though we didn’t manage to react to the news in this format right away while it was fresh
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Is there any insight into why the market is pricing this at a slight discount (approx. 12.75–12.80) compared to the already announced official tender offer (13.00)?
There isn’t really a sensible answer to this. Usually, the price hovers around the offer price, sometimes above it. It also depends a bit on market sentiment.
If you personally believe that the deal will go through at a price of €13 per share, then now is a good time to add to your position 
Edit 1. Market uncertainty? Most people believe in this, however.
It points to the likelihood that a competing bid is not particularly expected, and there is always a possibility—though not necessarily a large one—that for one reason or another, the offer won’t go through.
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Any news on the timing for the takeover bid going through?
Decent volumes are being traded daily at the 12.50-12.70 levels, and I’m a bit tempted to pick up an extra lot for a fairly certain return, but if the deal drags on for much longer, it’s not ideal to have money tied up for just a few percent…
The offer period was extended at the beginning of this month until May 3rd to get all regulatory approvals finalized.
The goal remains to complete the tender offer during Q2, which effectively means within 2 months. In that light, the yield available relative to the offer price is still interesting, especially if the stock can be acquired at the 12.5–12.7e levels. Currently, the first ask levels seemed to be 12.75e, which also offers a nearly 2% return (though trading commissions must be taken into account when buying).
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I held out for a possible competing offer because I was too hasty with Caverion and sold my shares. However, the price in this DNV offer seems to be good enough that no other bids are being heard, no matter how topical cybersecurity remains.
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I wonder what the situation is here? There’s no sign or word of regulatory approvals, and the offer period is supposed to expire tomorrow.
A release was just issued that the offer period is being extended until 22 May.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment’s review is still ongoing..
One of the conditions for the completion of the Tender Offer is, as set out in its terms, the receipt of the necessary approvals from regulatory authorities, including permits under applicable laws concerning foreign direct investment. The approval process regarding foreign direct investment in Finland is still pending, and the Offeror cannot complete the Tender Offer until the approval has been received. The Offeror expects that the necessary approval will be obtained in accordance with applicable laws by approximately 21 May 2023, as the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment completes its review.
Could this be due to the formation of the current government? Is that why decision-making is moving so slowly?
How big is the risk that this deal won’t go through? You would think there wouldn’t be an issue with a player of this size. Surely Nixu couldn’t have any secret information or connections that shouldn’t end up in foreign ownership?
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The probability of the deal going through can be gauged from Nixu’s share price, which is trading quite close to the €13 tender offer price. In other words, the market considers it very likely that the deal will close, and I don’t see it falling through because of this regulatory approval either. Besides, it’s probably not the first time a regulatory process has been slightly delayed from the original schedule
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The Government ICT Centre Valtori has a cooperation agreement in effect with Nixu, according to public information. Could it slow down the red tape…
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