I’m wondering if I should take the 78% and 15k losses from this, or if I can still bring myself to believe in it. I almost feel like selling everything, but on the other hand, at this point it wouldn’t be significantly worse even if I didn’t sell and it dropped another 100%.
Some other thread would probably describe this better, but we bagholders are certainly more or less in the same boat. I myself vowed to look at this case until 2025 and observe the development of profitability etc. to see if it’s heading in a better direction, and if not, I’ll take it as a write-off. That direction hasn’t convinced me at least, even though there are the right elements. Profitability just hasn’t improved so far, and bswap collaborations haven’t borne as much fruit as I would have dared to hope. At this burn rate, we’ll soon be facing a new offering…
But it is what it is, no one here can recommend anything, so you have to make your own decision on what you want to do with this 
Yeah, we’re far from what was hoped for back then. But I still believe that those BSwap collaborations will bring “recurring revenue” in the future. It has also been discussed that these could serve as “backup power sources,” or how else someone not studying electrical engineering might describe it.
Competition in cars is fierce, it’s a volume business. The ET9 is an amazing device, let’s just see how they manage to sell it.
Yes, there has been talk about them supporting critical infrastructure, and some small compensation might come from that. Collaborations will surely produce something, but the question is how long it will take. Everything costs, and if money doesn’t come in, it’s a frustrating thing for the investor’s wallet.
Et9 is a cool thing, but in the name of scalability, I would hope that more effort would be put into bswappii than into car development.
NIO Inc. Provides February 2025 Delivery Update
- 13,192 vehicles were delivered in February 2025, increasing by 62.2% year-over-year
- 27,055 vehicles were delivered year-to-date in 2025, increasing by 48.8% year-over-year
- Cumulative deliveries reached 698,619 as of February 28, 2025
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Apparently. What went wrong with Nio. Just briefly, thanks.
Ehkä nyt menee parempaan suuntaan 
Nio Stock Rallies On Partnership With CATL To Develop Battery Swap Network: Retail Turns Extremely Bullish
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NIO’s earnings again fell short of expectations, and profitability challenges continued due to high development and expansion costs.
The company differentiates itself with its battery swap technology, but fierce competition with Tesla, BYD, and other Chinese manufacturers complicates its market position. European expansion is progressing, but the sustainability of the financial situation raises concerns.
https://x.com/Earnings_Time/status/1903033053875753415
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Does it stand out positively or negatively in a world where batteries are charged with megawatt power? It’s starting to look like money has been thrown down the drain with great enthusiasm.
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AI analysis of Nio’s peak and now at the bottom of the wave;
Nio was previously a highly hyped stock and company in the media. In 2018–2020, with its NYSE listing and early successes like the EP9 supercar and growing deliveries, Nio was a hot topic. The media loved to highlight their premium status, battery swap technology, and ambitious plans, often calling them China’s “Tesla killer.” Recently, however, they have been quieter, and there are several reasons for this.
Firstly, Nio’s financial situation has not met expectations. Although their revenue in 2024 was $9 billion (65.7 billion RMB) and they delivered 221,970 vehicles (according to the latest report on March 21, 2025), they still reported significant losses – an estimated $3.4 billion for the full year 2024. This is an improvement compared to previous years, but not enough to convince investors or the media of a quick turnaround. Compared to competitors like Xpeng, which has reduced its losses faster, or BYD, which is already profitable, Nio appears less efficient, which has diluted enthusiasm.
Secondly, competition in China’s electric vehicle market has exploded. Tesla, BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng have garnered a lot of attention, especially as Tesla lowers prices and BYD dominates the volume segment. Nio’s focus on the premium segment and battery swap stations (over 2,470 installed by May 2024) is unique, but it hasn’t been enough to keep them in the media spotlight as cheaper alternatives take over the market. The launches of Onvo and Firefly show they are trying to expand, but the impact on sales is not yet strong enough to generate headlines.
Finally, Nio’s stock price, which peaked at around $55 in 2021, has fallen to approximately $4.50 in March 2025 (according to Forbes and Yahoo Finance). This reflects cooled investor interest and less drama to report compared to the previous rollercoaster ride. The media often chases the next big story, and Nio has moved from being a challenger to a company struggling to prove its long-term survival.
Nio is not completely forgotten – they are making progress, such as the battery swap technology partnership with CATL (announced March 18, 2025) and the start of ET9 deliveries in March – but without profitability or explosive growth, they have lost their status as a media darling.
Here’s a tweet about NIO’s car sales last week.
https://x.com/CNEVhome/status/1904432059634127280
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I’m also putting this interesting tweet here.
https://x.com/NIOSwitzerland/status/1904423330301587923
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Why isn’t BYD shown in the tables, otherwise good. Or are only pure EV manufacturers included.
Perhaps this is like swearing in church, but reality is sometimes quite harsh. Will Nio survive its financial difficulties or will it go down…
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The EV game is harsh for Nio now. It’s sniffing around a $2 price.
Nio used to have almost double the market cap of Xpeng, and now Nio’s market value isn’t even half of Xpeng’s.
Is bankruptcy coming?
What does Stocklover believe, is there still something up their sleeve?
Tariffs have hit both Xpeng and Nio hard. To my knowledge, neither has invested heavily in the US markets; Nio had something years ago, but I guess that also came to nothing?
So I guess it’s due to this “trade war” between USA vs China.
Some thoughts on the adequacy of NIO’s cash reserves.
Actions are needed for NIO to finally become profitable.
The company is still pursuing very aggressive growth, which burns cash.
NIO Inc.: The Future of Cash Reserves in Two Scenarios
NIO Inc. is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer that struggles with balancing growth and profitability. The company’s cash situation and its ability to finance its operations are key factors for its future. Below are two realistic scenarios for NIO’s cash flow development until 2027.
Scenario 1: Current Spending Level, No Additional Funding
- Starting Cash: 6.0 billion USD
- Quarterly Loss: 721 million USD (approx. 240 M USD/month)
- Loss decreases by ~20% annually
- Cash flow neutrality achieved: early 2027
| Year | Loss / quarter | Loss / year | Remaining cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 721 → 577 M | ~2.5 B | 3.5 B |
| 2026 | 577 → 462 M | ~2.0 B | 1.5 B |
| 2027 | Neutral | 0 | 1.5 B (saved) |
Conclusion: Cash is just barely sufficient, but requires significant loss reduction.
Scenario 2: Additional Funding of 2 Billion in 2026
- Same initial assumption as Scenario 1
- Losses decrease more slowly (~15%/year)
- Additional Funding: 2.0 billion USD in mid-2026
- Cash flow neutrality achieved: end of 2027
| Year | Loss / quarter | Loss / year | Cash (end of year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 721 → 613 M | ~2.45 B | 3.55 B |
| 2026 | 613 → 521 M | ~2.10 B | 4.50 B (incl. funding) |
| 2027 | Neutral | 0 | 4.50 B |
Conclusion: Additional funding provides security, enables investments, and reduces risks.
Visualization: Cash Development by Scenario
![Cash Reserves in Two Scenarios]
Investor’s Perspective
| Scenario | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| Without additional funding | No dilution, requires internal efficiency measures | Limited flexibility, high risk |
| With additional funding | More stable cash, enables continued growth | Potential share issuance dilution effect |
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If the worst-case scenario happens to Nio, what do you guess will happen next regarding the former Nio?
On Tuesday, June 3, NIO’s Q1 results before market open.
Vehicle deliveries Y/Y +40.07% and Q/Q -42.09%.
Deliveries of 42,094 hit the middle of the guidance range of 41,000-43,000.
Q1 deliveries have always been slower for NIO. However, the sixth highest deliveries in its entire history at this point provide a good starting point for the whole year.
Personally, I expect more from the results regarding NIO’s cost structure and whether net losses have narrowed at all.
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NIO’s number of delivered electric vehicles rose sharply, incl. the new ONVO brand and Firefly model.
The company introduced new technologies and raised capital to support operations and innovations; additionally, many car models were updated and deliveries expanded.
https://x.com/earnings_guy/status/1929861483573227874
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A win is always a win 
“Volkswagen thus won the general category of innovations, but CAM also publishes a separate ranking of premium brands. Last year, that victory also went to Germany, but this year the winner changed when the Chinese Nio rose to first place with 33.5 points. Nio’s points were so high that they were backed by several successful innovations. Most importantly, however, Nio’s semi-solid-state batteries for the ET5 and EC7 models, as well as the manufacturer’s 1000-volt charging stations, which offer a 640kW charging capacity.”
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"The company has emphasized several times this year that its goal is to achieve its first quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of this year.
All of Nio’s efforts are currently focused on laying the groundwork for this goal to prove the viability of its business model, and the L90, as a new model with the potential to generate significant sales, is key to this."
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