Hello!
We are approaching the end of the reporting season, but we still have some exciting reports left – including Nibe. Several of Nibe’s competitors have already presented their Q3 reports, and I thought it might be interesting to compile some reflections on these.
Based on competitors’ Q3 reports, a clear common trend emerges: the European heat pump market continues to recover, with Germany particularly highlighted as strong. Carrier (owner of Viessmann, one of the leading heat pump manufacturers in Germany) reported a 15% sales increase for heat pumps in Europe within the residential segment during Q3. In Germany, sales increased by a significant 45%, and the company expects the trend to continue.
Italian Ariston, another competitor to Nibe, also reported organic sales growth of just over 4%, primarily driven by strong development in Germany. The German market accounts for approximately 20% of Ariston’s total sales. Given the positive development during the first nine months of the year and the trends the company sees at the beginning of Q4, Ariston chose to raise its full-year forecast to approximately 3% organic growth (from a previous 1–3%). Competitor Daikin describes the market climate for heat pumps in Europe as still challenging but also emphasizes that demand in Germany is strong.
This development is in line with the market data we have been following during the year. Underlying heat pump sales in Germany increased by 55% during the first half of 2025. The country also offers financial support for private individuals who install heat pumps, with the aim of reducing gas dependency and accelerating the transition from fossil-fueled heating systems. The subsidies are, of course, an important driving force behind the strong sales development. One can also follow the number of subsidy applications, which functions somewhat as an indicator for future sales. Applications increased by 78% in September and 49% in August, which will likely affect the manufacturing sector with some delay.
The German market is also significant for Nibe. We estimate that it accounts for approximately 10–15% of Climate Solutions’ sales, and since Europe as a whole accounts for about 70% of the business area’s turnover, the region is central to Nibe’s development. At a European level, heat pump sales increased by 9% during the first half of 2025, signaling good demand from end consumers. In addition to Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Italy have also driven growth, while the recovery in France and parts of Eastern Europe is slower.
We have already received statistics for heat pump sales in Sweden and the Netherlands for Q3, where both countries show stable but somewhat decelerating growth (Sweden: 8%, Netherlands: 6%). In Sweden, construction has slowed down more than the more optimistic forecasts of the first half of the year indicated. At the same time, the temporarily raised ROT deduction (ROT-avdraget) to 50% (from 30%) is expected to stimulate demand during the rest of the year. However, when the deduction returns to 30% at the turn of the year, there is a risk of a slowdown in sales during early 2026.
The Dutch market is partly affected by the reduction of subsidies for smaller air-to-water heat pumps at the beginning of the year. This led to an order intake peak during Q4’24, with deliveries during the first months of 2025 – which likely explains the relatively high growth during the first half of the year. This indicates that the increase may have been temporary rather than structural, making it particularly interesting to follow market data in the Netherlands in the coming quarters.