Roni, is an interview with Kumpulainen expected today?
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Yes, coming later today!
Here is the link to the webcast if you want to watch it: Multitude, Webcast, Q4'25 - Inderes
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Here are Roni’s quick comments on Multitude’s Q4 result. 
Multitude’s revenue developed in line with our expectations, but the result exceeded our expectations and the company’s guidance. This was an unexpected positive surprise, as the company had not issued a profit warning or published preliminary data. So far, we have only seen the key figures, not the full report, which limits, among other things, the analysis of development at the business unit level. The 2026 guidance was already known (30 MEUR net profit), and thanks to the stronger-than-expected profitability in Q4, we now believe that the guidance is more easily achievable than we previously thought.
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Here is the interview.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Full year and Q4 highlights
01:52 Guidance marginally exceeded
02:32 Consumer Banking
03:58 SME Banking
05:13 Wholesale Banking
06:53 Järvisydän debt restructuring
08:10 70 MEUR perpetual capital note
09:53 No dividend proposal was given
10:44 Guidance
11:36 Market environment
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And here is another equity report on Multitude from Roni following Q4
Multitude’s Q4 result exceeded our expectations as well as the company’s own guidance. We see reaching the 2026 guidance as possible thanks to high-margin fee income growth, continued positive development in credit losses, and cost discipline. Considering the positive earnings development and the slight decline in the share price, we consider the valuation to be very low (2026E P/B 0.7x and P/E under 6x). We reiterate our target price of EUR 7.80 and upgrade our recommendation to Buy (prev. Accumulate).
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Good job again Roni with this gem! Could you elaborate further on the scale of this EUR 70m hybrid relative to the potential growth of the loan portfolio it enables? Isn’t it quite significant, for example, in relation to a market cap of around EUR 130m? Is this growth properly factored into your forecasts?
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Hi @Siirala
Thanks, it’s nice to hear that there is interest!
Out of that €70M, €45M essentially goes only to redeeming the old perpetual loan to avoid an interest rate step-up. Thus, the so-called new capital is only €25M. This is not quite straightforward, as that financing was taken by Multitude Capital, not Multitude Bank. At the group level, the company monitors the net equity ratio, which, according to my calculations, is positively impacted by about 2% through this €25M in additional capital (perpetual loans are counted as equity). This, in turn, roughly provides headroom to grow the loan book by over €100M (the bank’s solvency figures are, of course, affected by the riskiness of the loan book, etc.). The modeling does not specifically assume large loan book growth due to that new capital, but in current forecasts, the loan book (+ debt investments) grows by over €100M this year. I also consider it possible that new capital will be used for moves on the M&A front. M&A is part of the company’s growth strategy, and the company seemed to emphasize that angle quite a bit yesterday. In my opinion, the change in the size of the loan book and comparing it to the market cap can be slightly misleading. Ultimately, only a very small slice of the loan book flows through to net profit. And that financing certainly wasn’t cheap.
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Thanks, that market cap was just a yardstick that was easily available, I understand of course that it’s not very relevant.
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€0.55 dividend (proposal). Now it’s nice to hear Roni’s view, it goes well over Inderes’ forecast!
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Well, now you hear!
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Regarding that price increase, the stock dipped very low on Wednesday along with the rest of the market, so at least half of yesterday’s rise was probably related to that. The stock’s trading volume is quite small, so it sometimes moves a bit erratically anyway. Yesterday, someone picked up the stock at €6.5 right in the morning, but after that, it went significantly lower to €6.02. I suspect that yesterday’s report didn’t reach all investors at the same time; I myself only found it in the afternoon, even though it was apparently published first thing in the morning. The report is still not on Nordnet, and even Inderes woke up to this later than usual. Perhaps the company has something to improve here, or did I miss something myself?
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That is certainly true, the stock had been coming down more sharply than the market recently, so with positive news, it’s natural that the recovery was also swift. Still, I had to mention the disproportion between the share price increase and the proposed dividend, as it caught my eye. In Multitude’s case, a purely cheap P/E ratio has clearly not attracted investors, as the quality and sustainability of earnings have certainly been somewhat concerning. Now that the cheap earnings-based valuation is also realized as cash flow to owners, the enthusiasm makes sense.
Yes, unfortunately, the comment didn’t make it into yesterday’s morning review. However, I noticed the dividend proposal in the morning and then just put the comment in for the next morning’s review. But the comment could have been released faster. If you want to receive press releases immediately, you should subscribe to them via email.
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Yup, maybe this is a lesson for everyone: a German company’s stock exchange releases might not show up on the same media radar as Nordic stocks. In my opinion, something for Multitude’s IR girls to ponder too.
But I’d be surprised if the stock doesn’t clearly move up from around six euros.
Yeah, this has been a pretty good swing stock between 5.9-6.4. It’s illiquid (Vähänvaihtoinen) and the bid-ask spread is usually calculated in percentages.
P.S. I don’t know what news came out today that caused a sudden 10% drop. A 10% dividend yield is certainly welcome.
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Now, there are signs in the air that it’s time to leave your fork behind. Yesterday, it traded almost all day between €6.6-€6.7, and if no miracles happen, it will shoot up today along with the rest of the market. Maybe it will break seven today?
It is possible if these levels are broken through. Dividend-hungry investors might very well cause this.
It looks like the next opportunity to get in on this will be at a price of €7.xx, at least before the dividend detaches.
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Alain Nydegger, the head of Wholesale Banking, is stepping down from his position. Nydegger is apparently leaving of his own accord to pursue his own entrepreneurial ventures. As such, I don’t believe there is any major drama involved. For the time being, Multitude’s CEO Antti Kumpulainen will serve as the head of Wholesale Banking. Antti was originally involved in building the business, so he knows the operations well.
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Greetings to the thread,
An extensive report on Multitude was published today, which, as usual, is openly available for everyone to read. Enjoy the read!
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Here are Ronin’s pre-match thoughts, as Multitude reports its results on Thursday.
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