Valuation is undeniably starting to look… sweaty. ![]()
P/E multiple on trailing earnings is 40x.
The latest acquisition at an EV/EBITA multiple of 8x made me realize that in Sweden, a lower return on invested capital (~12.5%) seems to be accepted, whereas here at home, for example, Boreo buys companies at 5-6x EBITA. Of course, that Askalon or whatever is also bigger and has grown impressively.
Of course, if you believe Momentum will continue >15% earnings growth under Ulff’s guidance for, say, the next 10 years (revenue would then be 7.5 billion SEK, profit roughly 650 million SEK) and you slap an off-the-cuff EV/NOPAT ~20 multiple on a value-creating serial acquirer (debt is low for now, so that translates almost like P/E), the share would be 270 SEK in 10 years. CAGR >9%, which in itself isn’t bad but isn’t enough for me, but at the previous purchase price (~57 SEK), the CAGR is 19%, which is really great.
This is just some back-of-the-envelope musing.
This really is a top-notch outfit, a shame I didn’t buy more in the autumn, but that’s how it goes. ![]()
