Modulight as an investment

Here are Siltanen’s pre-earnings comments, as Modulight will publish its Q3 results on Friday. :slight_smile:

The company’s recent quarters have shown improving signs. We expect a clear improvement in Q3 compared to the weak comparison period. The timing of the quantum computing project adds some uncertainty to the Q3 figures. During the quarter, the company conducted change negotiations, the scope of which remained limited compared to initial estimates. Visibility into business development remains low, so further information on future development is welcome.

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Here is a company report from Antti after the Q3 results. :slight_smile:
Modulight’s revenue grew strongly, and its loss decreased from a weak comparison period. In relation to our forecasts, the report was largely in line with expectations, although revenue fell slightly short of our estimate. Modulight’s year 2025 has proceeded better than before, but there are no reliable signs yet of strong continued growth in the future. We are therefore moderately lowering our demanding growth forecasts. Cash burn also increases financing-related risk quarter by quarter and partly weakens the return-risk ratio. Accordingly, we are lowering our target price to 1.3 euros (previously 1.6) and our recommendation to ‘reduce’ (previously ‘add’) in line with forecast changes.

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Orsila has bought 21,000 units.

A good sign for me.

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It’s quiet, regrettably quiet. Trading is almost at zero. This is how the years pass, big promises have turned into silence.

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I also recently invested a bit in Modulight. I’ve also noticed the quietness; it’s clearly the quietest company among my investments.

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My previous message in the thread 4 years ago.

Modu designs lasers, which is potentially a very lucrative part of the value chain, if it can differentiate itself. However, I don’t see any indications of that yet.

Has anyone figured out what is done at Modu’s factory? It advertises itself as “vertically integrated” but that can’t be true. It’s probably assembly. Surely the critical instruments come from elsewhere. The annual report is coated with ESG nonsense; I simply can’t get a clear picture of the matter. Who knows?

Loss 2x revenue. Still, Modu is not an investable company for me.

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A new, just under half an hour long Modu and Orsila.https://youtu.be/tk0nQENR9DU?si=9MU7U32q6KifMSdf&t=4

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Good company presentation.

Exuding confidence.

Also remembered the 2024 talks about commercialization. Now said that there hasn’t been anything to publish so far.

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Has there been any significant or noteworthy development in the IQM and Modulight quantum computing collaboration, or is it just a basic partnership? I’ve seen some articles on the topic.

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I wonder why it’s so quiet with this company. It would be nice to hear some news once in a while as an investor.

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Every now and then they’re at trade shows and small product refinements are introduced
 Larger deals are obviously what everyone is waiting for, maybe they’re still coming.

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There has been news coverage about quantum technology in recent days. These reports mentioned that the technology is constantly evolving and will enable a great deal across many industries. Quantum technology is expected to enter commercial use around the year 2030; I believe Modulight will be a stock market rocket by then at the latest.

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Is patience starting to run out soon? The cash will last for almost two years.

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It’s earnings day this Friday. Any predictions or thoughts on what’s in store?

Yeah, I have a prediction. Nothing particularly positive in store. Same as before, i.e., burning through cash.

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Here are Antti’s pre-result comments as Modulight reports its results on Friday, February 20. :slight_smile:

We expect the company’s revenue to have continued its growth and the loss to have narrowed from the comparison period, although the operating result still remains clearly negative. In the report, our attention will be focused particularly on the development of recurring PPT revenue, cost savings from change negotiations, and cash sufficiency.

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Tampere is a laser valley

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Siltanen interviewed Modulight CEO Seppo Orsila regarding Q4 :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:13 Highlights of the end of the year and the full year 2025
01:13 Revenue from the PPT business model
03:47 Successes and challenges of Visudyne treatment
06:29 Local manufacturing in the United States
07:56 Impact of geopolitics on production
10:48 Outlook and focus areas for the current year
12:55 Successes and challenges of the past strategy period


Here is the release regarding the results:

Key highlights in October–December 2025

  • Projects in the R&D pipeline progressed – PPT is in use in 80 hospitals, and patient recruitment for clinical trials has progressed slightly faster than expected
  • Free cash flow from operations was -538 (-2,513) thousand euros, improving by 79%
  • Revenue was 1,736 (1,431) thousand euros
  • EBITDA was 641 (-1,023) thousand euros
  • EBITDA margin (EBITDA-%) was 37.0 (-71.5) % of revenue
  • Operating result (EBIT) was -787 (-2,204) thousand euros
  • Operating margin (EBIT-%) was -45.4 (-154.0) % of revenue
  • Earnings per share was -0.02 (-0.02) euros

Key highlights in 2025

  • Total number of R&D projects at the end of the year was 33 (30)
  • Revenue was 7,069 (4,095) thousand euros
  • EBITDA was -168 (-4,836) thousand euros
  • EBITDA margin (EBITDA-%) was -2.4 (-118.1) % of revenue
  • Operating result (EBIT) was -4,648 (-8,337) thousand euros
  • Operating margin (EBIT-%) was -65.8 (-203.6) % of revenue
  • Earnings per share was -0.11 (-0.15) euros
  • The company’s Board of Directors proposes that no dividend be paid for the 2025 financial year

Outlook for 2026
Most of Modulight’s customer projects are various types of early-stage development projects. Modulight’s own products are sold in these projects. In line with its strategy, Modulight is also transitioning from payments based on equipment deliveries to a new payment model based on treatment sessions (PPT business model). The progress of individual projects is difficult to predict, and macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty continue to affect market development. For these reasons, forecasting revenue is challenging, and Modulight does not provide guidance for revenue or profitability for 2026.

Seppo Orsila, CEO
Revenue and profitability continued to improve in line with the strategy. The acceleration in customer activity that began in the summer continued until the turn of the year, and the events in January, which are traditionally important to us, were exceptionally successful. Cancer and eye treatments are progressing well, and more opportunities for our products have also been found in other high-value applications. A few of our customers have moved into small-scale production, and the “ramp-up” is progressing, albeit slowly. EBITDA developed in the right direction during the year, reaching 37% in the fourth quarter. We consider the development of EBITDA to be good, even though the level is not yet satisfactory.

Revenue in the fourth quarter was 1.7 million euros, which is 21% more than in the corresponding period of 2024. Full-year revenue grew by 73% compared to the previous year. The diversification of the customer portfolio, as well as the progress and increase in the number of projects, supported this development. I am pleased that our business has now grown for 5 consecutive quarters. At the same time, we achieved the highest annual percentage growth in our history and significantly improved our profitability.

Our own production facility is an increasingly important competitive factor in the current world situation. This is reflected in a positive momentum both in discussions with pharmaceutical companies and in negotiations for other customer relationships based on high-value applications. Our technology and unique production capabilities located in Europe have clearly led our customers to trust us in their development choices for future products. Most of our projects are such that the customer effectively commits to us long-term as their sole technology partner. The United States remains the company’s main focus, and our operations there are developing strongly. We have continued to develop local manufacturing. We see opportunities especially in flow cytometry, microscopy, the semiconductor industry, quantum technology, and the defense industry. In all of these, we have globally significant companies as customers.

Our EBITDA rose to 37% during the quarter and improved by 163%, amounting to 0.6 (-1.0) million euros. Correspondingly, the operating result improved by 64%, amounting to -0.8 (-2.2) million euros. Looking at the figures for both this quarter and the full year, it can be observed that revenue growth has improved the result. We have analyzed the profitability of our more mature products and found that the gross margin is developing in the right direction. This is, on one hand, a testament to the efficiency of our investments, but on the other hand, it also confirms our understanding of the business’s scalability. Profitability has also been significantly improved by the increased synergy between different customer accounts and products, as the same platforms are used in an increasing number of customer accounts, and the amount of required configuration is decreasing and becoming more streamlined.

During Q3, we noted that the PPT business now generates more from certain products than what the old business model would generate even if we resold the entire installed base of equipment every year. The positive development continued in Q4, and as a result, our PPT revenue ended up with strong triple-digit annual growth compared to 2024. In absolute terms, our PPT revenue exceeded one million euros in 2025. This is another new milestone in the development of our new business model, although still a small figure in absolute terms. More significant than the numbers in the PPT area, however, are the signals of several of our customers’ willingness to transition to our technology, the scaling plans of existing customers, and the partially faster-than-expected development of clinical trials compared to a year ago.

The goal of our projects is the commercialization of our own products. Our R&D pipeline grew to 33 projects. The amount of positive customer feedback has continued to grow, and we have also gained new business opportunities after customers recommended us to other companies. There are now 80 treatment points in the PPT business, and we are approaching the milestone of 1,000 treated eye patients this year.

The goal of our 2023–2025 strategy period was a return to strong and profitable growth. The record 73% revenue growth in 2025 can be considered a success, but in terms of profitability, we are not at the targeted level, although we have progressed in the right direction. Our growth strategy is headed in the right direction, but we still need a little more time. We have streamlined our operations and paid special attention to the sufficiency of our cash reserves.

Our goal is to continue positive development in 2026. The company has earlier today announced an updated strategy and financial targets.

Here are the robot’s comments:

And the release regarding the strategy update :slight_smile:

Modulight is updating its strategy and long-term financial targets, which extend to the end of the 2027 financial year. The company reiterates its financial targets regarding revenue and EBITDA, aiming for strong annual revenue growth and a return to strong profitability. In addition, the goal is to achieve positive cash flow by the end of the strategy period. The company’s dividend policy remains unchanged.

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Here is the third published analysis on Saturday, how nice. :slight_smile: Antti has written a new company report on Modulight following the Q4 results. :slight_smile:

Modulight’s year 2025 was marked by growth. The business is developing in the right direction, but slowly. Regarding Q4, revenue fell short and the result exceeded our estimates due to exceptionally low operating costs. The company did not provide guidance for the current year, for which we expect moderate growth and a narrowing loss. Modulight also announced a new growth-oriented strategy for 2026–27. We are lowering both our revenue and cost estimates for the coming years and the longer term, which moderately lowers our view of the share’s fair value. We are lowering our target price to EUR 1.2 (prev. 1.3) and reiterate our reduce recommendation.

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IQM plans to list on the US stock exchange and is also considering listing on the Finnish stock exchange. Could Modulight have some collaboration in this?