This company is really becoming too quiet.
Many years have passed, with the company’s own people praising it on these sites. Modu’s CEO only has visions for ice hockey and ski resorts in calls. I fully believe it will soon go the way Valoe cleared the tables. What does it matter if they have plenty of money for the rest of their lives? Investors’ and financiers’ money doesn’t matter.
If accounts are emptied into family pockets, then this will never get off the ground. It was a hype stock, it came and sank. All this is visible in the company’s CEO’s output, what is important to him. High income, sweet life, no pressure about the company’s future. Rumors from Tampere say this, not everything can be pulled out of thin air.
Seeds collected, no new harvest will come, at least not for investors, you can bet on that. Negative feedback must be given, and there is reason for it; positive feedback if there is reason.
Here are Antti’s preliminary comments, as Modulight reports its results on Friday at 1 PM.
The company reported an increased order backlog and a growing number of hospitals using its products earlier this year. Based on this message, we expect growing revenue for the quarter. However, our growth expectations are still at a moderate level due to the early development phase of the projects and limited visibility. Earnings are slightly improving in our forecast as a result of increasing gross margin. We expect operational costs to be at the level of the comparison period. The weakening of the US dollar has a slightly negative impact on the company, but at this stage, the key is the company’s ability to grow revenue and progress towards achieving a turnaround in results.
Modulight exceeded Antti’s and consensus forecasts regarding revenue and profitability:
CEO Orsila also sounded quite bullish, but he seems to have been so before:
The summer has been exceptional in terms of the high number of customer visits and received orders. Existing customers’ progress in projects and repeat orders were a significant part of the orders received. We also won customers from billion-dollar competitor companies thanks to better technology.
00:00 Introduction
00:07 Second quarter development
03:49 Orders received
05:51 Equipment installations
08:30 Quantum computing order
09:48 Impact of tariffs on Modulight
I have no training in body language analysis, but for someone born in the 70s, Orsila’s way of presenting himself was quite “reteetä”, which could be a good sign. At least the gloves haven’t been dropped.
“We believe that our operations in line with our growth strategy and our strengths will contribute to our business returning to strong and profitable growth during our strategy period extending to the end of 2025.”
The comment quoted above, at the end of the earnings release, is, in my opinion, a rather strong hint for the expectations for the rest of the year, even though they did not publish actual outlooks.
According to Orsila, customers have been positively surprised by the level of Modu’s technology. I wouldn’t rule out at all that one of these quantum companies would acquire Modulight if the pilots progress further. Less than 100 million is pocket change for them.
Antti has made a new company report on Modulight after Q2.
Modulight’s revenue grew by triple-digit percentages, operating loss halved, and our forecasts were exceeded. The company reported brisk trading during the summer, and revenue was also supported by the partial recognition of a quantum computing order. In the big picture, the company is progressing according to our expectations, so forecast changes will be minor this time. However, the good development of the gross margin somewhat raises our earnings forecasts. We reiterate our Add recommendation and raise the target price to 1.6 euros (previously 1.5) based on the forecast changes.
Quoted from the report:
Due to the growing order book and increased visibility, we believe the EV/S multiples are acceptable. The valuation of the stock requires the development to remain strong, which would justify the relatively high absolute multiples. The low starting point supports the potential for strong relative revenue growth. We emphasize that positive signs of business improvement are still early, and caution is therefore still warranted. On the other hand, if the development continues to be positive, we also see potential for multiples to expand.
OP’s Kimmo Stenvall reviewed Modulight’s Q2 results.
Modulight published a better-than-expected Q2 report. The company is steadily progressing in a better direction, but the pace is still slow. There is still a way to go to positive cash flow, and the financial position is steadily weakening. In the video, Senior Analyst Kimmo Stenvall reviews the company’s past quarter and opens up near-term prospects.
The right move to save costs until revenue rises to a sufficient level to stabilize cash flow.
Hopefully, the necessary reductions can be implemented mainly through temporary layoffs, whereby cost savings are realized and employees remain with the company for the duration required to turn around the cash flow.
Modulight uploaded to its YouTube channel last week a webinar recording from a webinar held on December 10, 2024, where an ophthalmologist shares their experiences with a product made by Modulight for eye treatments: https://youtu.be/Ng0LkFZoqKY
The doctor’s presentation starts at 3:23. The presentation as a whole is quite interesting, but here are two things that stuck with me from the presentation:
Starting at 15:39: Approximately 90% of PDT-treated patients do not require new treatment. Patient satisfaction is good because the results are lasting.
Starting at 18:34: A similar device was once offered by Zeiss, but they no longer manufacture or support the device. I interpreted this to mean that there is practically no competition.
Starting at 41:56, the pricing of the device is discussed, and in this context, a small piece of information emerges (starting at 42:36) that in some respects delays the development of PPT revenue. That is, Modulight offers a three-month free trial period for the product to webinar participants. I recall seeing Modulight campaigning with a similar offer in a social media post in the summer of 2024, but unfortunately, I can no longer find it.
That’s good to keep in mind, because if such a promotional device is installed in a given quarter, revenue from it will only start accumulating three months later, and only if the customer decides to continue using the device after the trial period.
In 2020, the full year’s revenue was 10.062 million, which was divided as follows:
H1: 3.672 million
H2: 6.390 million
In 2021, the full year’s revenue was 9.071 million, which was divided as follows:
H1: 4.560 million
H2: 4.511 million
H1 revenue for 2025 was 3.568 million. If revenue continues on its growth path, then by the beginning of next year at the latest, revenue should start to be at the level of the IPO period (=2021).
An excellent decision by the company, and one I expected, for several reasons, three of which are:
This way, the company will not lose its employees if the desired and promised increase in business activity occurs.
Secondly, the promise of returning to profitable growth does not seem to require permanent staff reductions, which must mean that profitability growth will come from revenue growth.
Thirdly, the company immediately saves on salary costs through temporary layoffs, because in a termination situation, the terminated employee would have had to be paid salary for the notice period. In a temporary layoff, the notice period is 14 days, which might only be possible in a termination situation for employment relationships lasting less than 1 year.
Modulight is part of Finland’s official quantum technology delegation, which will participate in the Quantum World Congress 2025 event held in Washington D.C. This participation supports Modulight’s strategy to strengthen its position in the quantum technology ecosystem and increase the company’s international visibility. The event provides an excellent platform for developing new partnerships and customer relationships on a global level.
