What stock are you holding long-term?

[bluechip]

Certain funds are “idiot-proof” hodling targets for me, the sale of which would require something very dramatic to happen. Like forgetting a prenuptial agreement, for example. These include the basic S&P500, Europe, EM, etc.

For individual companies, it’s a trickier matter. The selling threshold for them is significantly lower. UPM, which was on “long hold”, was unceremoniously dumped after recent negative news. Of the companies I own, only Sampo is one that could be imagined to stay in an eternal hodl.

This is perhaps something that largely depends on the investor’s risk appetite, but I can identify a few companies on the Helsinki Stock Exchange that I would bundle with Sampo in the eternal hodl category. These are Huhtamäki, Kesko, and Kojamo. As a side note, I would add that I consider Kojamo a somewhat different beast, and in my opinion, it should be subject to a significantly lower return expectation than, for example, Sampo. It’s possible that a few more companies would be found if I thought about it more carefully.

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money”.

[Mrs_Moneypenny]

"As a rule, I choose a new target with at least a 3-5 year horizon. However, I have made a few embarrassing mistakes over the years and have divested faster than planned. I do try to critically examine stocks that have been in my portfolio for a longer time, because even an eternal hold is not necessarily that profitable.

Here are a few examples:

I have owned CapMan since 2014. It has become one of the cornerstones of my portfolio and I still consider the company to be of high quality. It has combined both positive share price development and a fair dividend yield. The only thing that worries me is a possible shift in investment sentiment, which may not appear in a positive light for an investment services company.

Vaisala has been in my portfolio since 2015. Its strong competitive advantage and quality are still intact. I have slightly reduced my position along the way due to wild valuation levels. At least for now, I see no reason to divest, even though I don’t expect any massive share price increase in the next couple of years.

I had been looking into Novo Nordisk for a long time and bought it last year during the COVID-19 dip. My intention is for this to also become one of the quality cornerstones of my portfolio for the long term."

[Progemies]

Thanks for the great opening, @JanneBoi83.
It’s good to review one’s own companies and acquisitions made over the years. It’s also nice to read about others’ holdings and tactics.

My own holdings that I won’t easily sell:

UPM. Acquired in 2011 at an average price of €7.80. Dividends alone have paid back my invested capital. This year, the dividend yield is 16.66%. A couple of years ago, I sold 1/8 of my holdings. The intention is to keep it for a long time, generating a dividend stream.

Sampo. Acquired in 2011 at a price of €19.20. The dividend yield is also good, although there has been some fluctuation in the dividend amount in recent years. I have increased my holdings in another portfolio over the years between €22-41. No plans to sell in the coming years.

Fortum. First purchases also in 2011. It has been one of the mainstays of the portfolio, which I have added to whenever the price dropped to between €11-15. I am not selling unless something dramatic happens in the business.

I trust all three companies and want to be with them for the long haul. I admit that emotional ties to these companies have developed.

Other long-term holdings in my portfolios include Metso (acquired in 2011). When Metso split into two listed companies (Metso & Valmet) in 2013, I kept Metso and sold Valmet in 2014.
In 2019, Metso, in turn, merged with Outotec, and at the same time, Metso was divided into two parts, whereby Metso’s valve business became Neles. I have also kept Neles and plan to add more when the right price comes along. I have recently been adding Metso to another portfolio with a shorter holding period in mind.

Nordea
Over ten years since the first Nordea purchases, which I have added to several times along the way. Selling the entire holding has crossed my mind several times, but in the end, I have always changed my mind. Now I am closely monitoring the situation, and sales are not ruled out.

All of these have been in my ownership for over 10 years. In my investment plan, I combine trading and long-term holding in good dividend-paying companies. I intend to continue with this plan in the future.

Happy investing to all!

[Nortti1]

Neles won’t be an independent company for much longer, as the merger with Valmet has already been voted on.

[Progemies]

That is true. Valmet will return to the portfolio through the merger of Valmet and Neles.

[Lerner]

I’m answering the question: what will I hold for the next 20 years.

Sampo
I started buying Sampo around the time of the financial crisis during dips, always adding more. Sampo’s transformation into a pure insurance company certainly doesn’t reduce my enthusiasm to let go of the company within the next 20 years.

Harvia is also a potential company I have a lot of faith in, but let’s wait, say, 5 years for the biggest sauna boom and enthusiasm in the Harvia thread to subside a bit before I answer the question.

[Bear_of_the_nasdaq]

EVOLUTION GAMING.

This stock ended up in my portfolio because I had bought NetEnt stock during the COVID-19 dip. At the time, I considered NetEnt a very affordable brand in the gaming world, which was just getting its live casino in order. I compared it to Evolution and thought Evolution’s stock was overpriced (around 400 SEK at the time).

When Evolution made a tender offer for NetEnt, I was initially disappointed, but as I got to know Evolution better, their new games, and the CEO who directly explained how they planned to develop the company with NetEnt, I became convinced.

My biggest mistake is not having bought more Evolution shares for my portfolio because my initial impression of the company was that it was expensive compared to NetEnt.

The average price of the stock is 115 SEK, and I intend to hold it for at least another 9 years, by which time I hope to be able to use the acquisition cost assumption for the first time and realize a tenbagger.

[Zoltan]

I’ve planned to hold the three biggest companies I own as long as there’s no significant change in their competitive advantages or market shares. The results of individual quarters or stock price fluctuations are irrelevant in themselves.

I believe all of them share the characteristic that explosive growth is now behind them, and as the risk level gradually decreases, growth will also moderate.

Revenio, purchased 2015-2016. I’ve considered the promises of health technology based on four different criteria:

1. The illness must be critical enough that you seek examination the next day, not next year. Eyesight is one such example.
2. The sector must be slow-moving enough to allow for the formation of a moat. Slow market penetration provides time to buy shares and later protects against competitors, like ophthalmologists.
3. The diagnosis/treatment must be affordable enough for the masses. Growth doesn’t come from treating only the wealthy.
4. The diagnosis/treatment must be accessible to people beyond those living near well-equipped central hospitals in large cities.

In my eyes, Revenio fulfills all four, one of the few I’ve found. Considering my low average purchase price, this is likely one of the best finds of my entire investing career.

I understand as much about pharmaceutical companies as a pig understands fine wines. That’s why I haven’t touched them at all.

Visa, purchased 2017. Legal robbery is the term I’d use for their operations. Merchants complain about the percentages charged for card payments, and regulators everywhere would gladly see Visa/Mastercard’s position weaken. Nevertheless, they keep chugging along year after year. In theory, it might seem easy to connect consumers, merchants, and banks into a widely used payment method that is cost-effective for the operator (economy of scale), fast, and secure to use almost worldwide. In practice, it’s very difficult. Europe has had varying political will for this for at least a decade, with meager results.

Technological competitors are discussed almost daily. This and that will revolutionize payments or something else. Visa operates almost like a mafia, using a combination of cooperation, market buyouts, proprietary innovation, and suppression through its own mass. I trust their ability to find a suitable solution for each situation; one way or another, they’ll be part of the action.

Perhaps the most beautiful part of this is that moderate inflation more or less directly increases their profits as they simply take their own absolutely higher slice of the payment.

Kone, purchased 2015. Globally, apartments are constantly being built taller, while populations in Western countries and the Far East are aging. Building cycles of less than five years vary by country; sometimes more is built, sometimes less. That’s just background noise. Built elevators are very rarely decommissioned, and every additional elevator requires more maintenance. Or no, “requires” is the wrong word. They must be maintained. Deliberately keeping faulty elevators in use will land you in prison in most countries.

[Unisieppari]

I don’t have a single stock in my portfolio that I’ve committed to holding for a specific period of time, even in thought. I go almost entirely by expected returns, and while time has a strong correlation with that, it’s not the determining factor. For only one of my current companies have I “nailed down” a clear goal, which, if met, would allow me to stop running in the rat race. At that point, I’ll buy a round for those who were on the same train and retreat to the embrace of nature. That company is Voxtur Analytics Corp.

[Kale-possu]

Orion is the only one to which such a distant, cool attitude of “everything is for sale” does not apply. It has been in the family for a very long time and will continue to be, at least with some weight (the weight can certainly be reduced), as long as it is listed on the stock exchange. Not so much because we immensely love or worship it, but rather out of a sense of continuity and respect for it, that part of our current and future wealth stems from the fact that previous generations spent less than they could have and put aside what was left into sensible investment activities. Orion symbolizes that, somewhat like an old heirloom watch for someone.

[Gaagamel]

I can’t remember all of them, the ones that have been in my portfolio since the Stone Age…
Fortum
UPM
Valmet
Orion
Huhtamäki
Metso
Etc. I haven’t had a need to sell them, so they can just hang around.
Though, for example, the Stone Age Telias and Nokias have been replaced with new ones.
Oh, and there were Valmet Automotive (VAA) and Sampo there too, but I don’t really think about them much. I sold Kone, bought at about 9 euros, the dividends were nice, but the profits too.

[Hades]

Everything is for sale at the right price, but sometimes it’s good to consider the factors that make a company a “forever hold.” I completely agree with @ChuckPeddle’s idea from above.

When I look at my own portfolio, a very small portion of it consists of companies I could confidently hold forever as a twenty-something. I identify four such companies, whose combined weight is roughly 30 percent.

1. Harvia: incredible profitability and strong growth, consolidation story and market leadership, global markets and health driving growth, defensiveness, reliable and committed management team, domestic presence, and a personal emotional connection to the company’s product.

2. eQ: a ridiculously profitable company, clearly the best operator in its market, still good and even fairly safe growth expectations (for the entire industry), staff’s track record of value creation is in a league of its own, management’s commitment to the company is exceptionally strong (CEO + Chairman of the Board ownership combined >25%).

3. Evolution: eQ’s profitability combined with the growth of an excellent SaaS company, clear growth path but only in its infancy in large target markets, very strong market position, insider commitment.

4. Investor: Swedish industry in one company. The Wallenberg’s track record of value creation can withstand all the daylight that can shine into this peaceful haven. Cost efficiency and profitability are excellent, even if they are not perfect metrics for an investment company. The Wallenberg’s ownership is reassuring.

Let’s examine companies 1-3, as Investor is not just any company. A long list of common denominators begins to emerge: excellent market position in their sector, good prospects for sustainable growth, very high profitability relative to general industry levels, strong confidence in the company’s management, and management team’s share ownership. In addition, economies of scale, which all three fully enjoy, come to mind. Surprisingly many similarities… is it a coincidence?

I certainly wouldn’t mind if these companies had a large weighting in my portfolio even far into the future. But why aren’t they already? Because buying at expensive multiples is sometimes like pulling out your own toenails with your teeth. One area for development as an investor is indeed to laser-focus exclusively on these super-high-quality companies that one can confidently hold for an eternity.

I also wonder which companies in my portfolio could be in this category in the future based on those similar characteristics. Candidates from Helsinki could be Orthex and Kamux, which meet the criteria related to growth and leadership - however, maintaining international expansion and growth/profitability as expansion accelerates still makes them question marks. Perhaps this is also an exercise that should be done often regarding one’s own selections to maintain portfolio quality.

[aspee]

Interesting headline. Personally, the company should prove its worth and deserve its place in my portfolio. Even a good company makes an unexpected move, for example, in the form of a strategy that I don’t understand, so it basically goes up for sale.

In practice, I make a decision based on today’s information, and tomorrow it will be re-evaluated based on possible news.

[VasynytKonsulentti]

An obvious choice (for me): Investor AB. A company whose investment decisions are fundamentally generational and whose return history is worth examining. Most likely, the share certificates will eventually have to be torn from my death-stiffened hands. Of course, I wish both myself and Investor long life and success.

Since Investor was already mentioned in the thread, I would highlight Brookfield Asset Management as another long-hold company. An asset management giant whose investments particularly focus on “hard assets” related to society’s basic needs, i.e., fixed assets (energy infrastructure, ports, roads, etc.). I strongly believe in their success over the next 10-20 years. They are, of course, also involved in digitalization (“Software is the next infrastructure” is something heard from Brookfield).

[KalleH]

I hope that Harvia, Kamux, Qt, and Evolution stay in my portfolio for a very long time. This requires that the outlook remains favorable and prices reasonable. Among funds, my strongest confidence is in Spiltan Aktiefond Investmentbolag, Handelsbanken Sustainable Energy, and iShares Nasdaq100 ETF. Everything else will be traded in the next tax year.

[Riser]

1. Keskisuomalainen - a dividend machine that even digitalization hasn’t killed; it will probably keep chugging along the same track. A special note: almost every year there’s a swing opportunity when it dips disproportionately due to dividends or other factors; it’s a low-volume stock.

2. Harvia - many in the thread have already explained the reasons.

3. Fortum - a cornerstone of the portfolio from the energy sector.

• Funds diversified across America, Asia, Nordic countries, Nordnet Finland Super. The intention is to keep these at about 50% of the portfolio; during the coronavirus year, a lot went into stocks, but now hopefully it’s balancing out.

[JanneBoi83]

A little more of my own narrative to the thread. Thanks to Inderes, I discovered REIT investments at the end of 2020. What could be more enjoyable in a turbulent market situation than quarterly or even monthly dividend yields, in the range of 8-10++ percent annually? My spearhead stock is New York Mortgage Trust, with an average price of under 4 USD. The dividend yield is 10++ percent annually, with an ownership of 1600 shares. There could be dividend increase potential in the long run. The share price doesn’t matter so much when cash regularly flows into the account, unless there’s a systematic market crash. Simply Hodl.

[Ykkospyssy]

SAMPO Unless something extraordinary happens, this will remain by far my largest holding for a long time. These shares were bought from the COVID-19 dip, so it’s a relatively recent case, and our journey has just begun

Telia has been in my portfolio for 16 years, and they can stay there until the very end, meaning they’ll be sold when I retire. Hopefully, the same will happen with Sampo.

[Pekka10]

Could the thread name be corrected? No longer HODLing.

[Juurikki]

One piece of Inderes went into eternal hold as an entrance fee for coffee served at future general meetings.