Strong profitability development continued. Strong momentum in Security Solutions.
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Frans spoke with Loihdeâs Samu Konttinen about Loihdeâs Q1 and the companyâs outlook 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Q1 update
01:09 Profitability
03:13 Security solutions
05:20 Cybersecurity, cloud and connectivity
07:01 IT consulting
09:56 War in Iran
12:41 BLC Turva acquisition
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Frans was on the evening shift on Sunday and has finished the company report on Loihde.
Loihdeâs Q1 report was clearly better than our expectations regarding profitability. Adjusted EBITDA grew strongly, even though revenue fell slightly short of our expectations. We raised our earnings forecasts for the current year due to strong Q1 profitability, but our forecasts for the coming years remain nearly unchanged. We consider the BLC Turva acquisition, currently under review by the FCCA (KKV), as a positive option in the valuation, as if realized, it would bring synergy benefits, nearly double the size of the Security Solutions segment, and sharpen the companyâs profile as a focused security operator. However, in our view, Loihdeâs valuation for 2026-27 (adj. P/E 16-15x) has already reached a tight level in terms of the risk/reward ratio following the strong share price performance. We are raising our target price to EUR 14.6 (prev. EUR 13.2), but we are waiting for a better buying opportunity and are changing our recommendation to Reduce (prev. Accumulate).
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Revenue fell -2%. At a quick glance, this company makes acquisitions annually, but revenue is growing clearly slower compared to the combined revenues of the acquired companies + existing revenue. Organic growth is likely significantly negative?
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Here are my estimates for organic development, taken from the company report.
In my opinion, organic growth has actually been at a quite healthy level in recent years, considering the overall market situation. Especially given the very weak market for IT consulting and new construction, the downturn in the Finnish economy, and companiesâ need for cost savings. Organic growth has been driven by the Security business and particularly the largest business area, Security Solutions, whose development has been impressive.
At the moment (before the BLC Turva acquisition), revenue growth is almost entirely organic.
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Conditional approval for the transaction: Kilpailu- ja kuluttajavirasto on hyvÀksynyt Loihde Oyj:n BLC Turva -yritysoston ehdollisena - Inderes
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Frans has written a new company report regarding this news
The FCCA (Kilpailu- ja kuluttajavirasto) has approved the significant BLC Turva acquisition with reasonable and expected concessions, which removes the associated uncertainty. The deal makes Loihde the largest security technology provider in Finland. We see the industrial logic of the arrangement as sound and believe it will clearly increase earnings per share despite the concessions. In our view, the valuation has once again become attractive following the share price decline, even in the short term (adj. P/E 13-14x, dividend yield 6-7%), relative to the companyâs earnings growth outlook and the value creation potential of the BLC Turva deal. We upgrade our recommendation to Accumulate (prev. Reduce) but lower our target price to EUR 14.40 (prev. EUR 14.60) after accounting for the concessions in the BLC Turva deal.
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Loihde is expanding into much-discussed (even in interviews) civilian drone defense and surveillance solutions. This involves drone detection solutions and drone surveillance. In implementing these solutions, Loihde acts as a technology integrator, combining products and software from various drone and sensor manufacturers, as well as system suppliers, into its own platform to build a complete turnkey solution for the customer.
In a Kauppalehti article, Tikkanen described the service as the âNetflix of Drone Surveillance,â with pricing based on the customerâs specific needs. The first deliveries to customers in Finland are expected to take place in the fall of 2026. This is an interesting addition to Loihdeâs comprehensive security offering. It certainly helps stay in the spotlight when even Kauppalehti wants to run a story on the new service
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Here are Fransâs pre-comments ahead of Loihde reporting its Q2 results on Friday, July 17th
We expect revenue to have grown slightly, driven by the strong-performing Security Solutions business. We predict that profitability has improved compared to the comparison period, supported by the strong momentum in security businesses and efficiency measures, continuing the positive trend from the beginning of the year. At the center of Loihdeâs investment story at the moment is the significant BLC Turva acquisition, which the FCC (Finnish Competition and Consumer Authority) approved in May with reasonable concessions. We look forward to any additional comments from management regarding the deal.
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Mikael interviewed Loihdeâs CEO Samu Konttinen following the release of their Q2 results
Topics:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:13) Q2 key points
(01:19) Security solutions
(02:01) Security deliveries for data center projects
(03:10) Cybersecurity, cloud, and connectivity
(04:02) Data, digital, and AI
(05:06) Recurring service contract base
(05:58) Profitability development
(07:28) Drone defense and surveillance solutions
(09:39) Conditional approval of the BLC Turva acquisition
Loihde Plcâs Half-Year Report January 1 â June 30, 2026:
Adjusted EBITDA improved by 32% in the first half of the year and was 8% of net sales
**
AprilâJune 2026 in brief**
- Loihde Groupâs second-quarter net sales were EUR 33.9 million (EUR 35.2 million), change -4%
- Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 2.7 million (EUR 2.6 million), or 8.1 (7.3)% of net sales, change 7%
- The Finnish Competition and Consumer Authority approved the BLC Turva acquisition conditionally, requiring the divestment of three local locking businesses before the acquisition is executed.
JanuaryâJune 2026 in brief
- Loihde Groupâs JanuaryâJune net sales were EUR 68.4 million (EUR 70.5 million), change -3%
- Net sales of business segments in JanuaryâJune:
- Security solutions EUR 38.0 million (EUR 38.6 million),
change -1%- Cybersecurity, cloud, and connectivity EUR 15.4 million (EUR 15.7 million), change -2%
- Data, digital, and AI EUR 14.9 million (EUR 16.3 million),
change -8%- Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 5.4 million (EUR 4.1 million), or 7.9 (5.8)% of net sales, change 32%
- Adjusted operating profit was EUR 1.4 million (EUR 0.2 million), or 2.0 (0.2)% of net sales, change 676%
- Net sales from recurring services were EUR 20.4 million (EUR 19.8 million), or 29.7 (28.0)% of total net sales. Growth 3%. The annualized contract base for recurring services at the end of the period was EUR 39.3 million (EUR 40.2 million), change -2%.
The figures in the half-year report are unaudited.
Outlook for 2026 (unchanged)
In 2026, Loihde expects the Groupâs net sales and adjusted EBITDA to grow or remain at approximately the same level as the previous year.
In November 2025, Loihde agreed on the acquisition of the entire share capital of BLC Turva Oy. The fulfillment of the conditions required by the Finnish Competition and Consumer Authority for the acquisition is ongoing, and therefore, it has not been included in the earnings guidance provided at this time. Loihde will update the guidance after the acquisition is completed.
Financial targets for the 2024â2027 strategy period
Loihde Group targets an average annual net sales growth of approximately 10 percent, including potential acquisitions. The net sales target for the end of the strategy period, i.e., the year 2027, is at least EUR 200 million.
Regarding profitability, the goal is to reach a 15 percent adjusted EBITDA margin by the end of the strategy period.
The target for return on investment (ROI) is 10%, and the target for net debt/EBITDA is between 0â2x.
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Frans has put together a new company report on Loihde for Q2 
Loihdeâs Q2 report fell somewhat short of our expectations regarding revenue and profit, weighed down by a weak quarter in the Security Solutions project business, although this was also partly due to a shift towards the previously very strong Q1. Profitability improvement continued, and the performance for the entire H1 was a clear step up. The company reiterated its guidance, the achievement of which requires a clear pick-up in H2, of which the company is confident. We slightly lowered our forecasts for the current year, but our forecasts for the coming years remain nearly unchanged. The divestments required by the BLC Turva acquisition, which was conditionally approved by the FCCA (KKV), are expected to materialize later this year, and despite the concessions, the acquisition is clearly a positive option for our forecasts. The earnings-based valuation (adj. for lease liabilities EV/EBITA 2026-27: 9-8x, adj. P/E 15-12x) is, in our view, attractive relative to the earnings growth outlook. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and adjust our target price to 14.00 euros (previously 14.40 âŹ).
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