Lohilo Foods - Global growth with superfoods and energy drinks

What’s happening now in practice? Why would anyone subscribe to shares when they can get them cheaper on the market?

Edit: If I understood correctly, 85% of the offering is secured by management and external investors?

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Perhaps some larger player/corporate acquirer has the motivation to subscribe significantly if they want to take a larger position in the company all at once. For example, if some entity starts buying a 10% ownership in the company, it will quickly raise the stock price above the issue price, especially if the company has interests in making the purchase quickly.

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If one is interested in increasing their position, should it be done now? Or is there something I don’t understand?

Edit:
If the subscription right has already been detached, then there’s an arbitrage opportunity here. My Swedish is so poor that I’m not entirely sure of the situation.

Edit2:
From the list below, one should certainly be able to deduce when the right detaches. Is it tomorrow, November 19th?

Preliminary timetable for the Rights Issue
18 November 2021: Last day of trading including the right to receive subscription rights
19 November 2021: First day of trading excluding the right to receive subscription rights
22 November 2021: Record date for participation in the Rights Issue
23 November 2021: Publication of the prospectus
24 November – 3 December 2021: Trading in subscription rights on Nasdaq First North Growth Market
24 November – 8 December 2021: Subscription period
10 December 2021: Announcement of the outcome of the Rights Issue

Can someone help an ignorant & linguistically challenged person?

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Preliminary schedule of the share issue 18.11.2021: Last trading day including the right to receive subscription rights 19.11.2021: First trading day without the right to subscription rights 22.11.2021: Record date of the share issue 23.11.2021: Publication of the prospectus 24.11. - 3.12.2021: Trading in subscription rights on Nasdaq First North Growth Market 24.11. - 8.12.2021: Subscription period 10.12.2021: Publication of results In legal matters

I have already finished looking into this stock and have no intention of participating.

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OP now offered the opportunity to participate in the offering. I’ll pass for now, as I can get it cheaper on the market at the moment, and I might add a bit if we see signs of improvement. The company has strong growth ambitions, but it requires cash. Below is a recent video; could someone who is better at the other domestic language (Swedish) summarize it? :slight_smile:

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This is just my personal opinion, but I think the company should focus solely on ice cream and quickly drop drinks from its portfolio. In my opinion, ice cream is definitely this company’s strength. In beverages, the competition is tougher, and as a brand, it’s currently getting beaten pretty badly by Nocco, Celsius, etc.

Nevertheless, I find it an interesting company with potential for anything (for better or worse). However, at the moment, its operations don’t convince me enough to jump on board.

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Agreed. There’s too much competition on the drink shelf, and it’s hard to stand out with just BCAAs. Perhaps these collagen and other specialty drinks could work if a customer base can be reached without excessive marketing costs.

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Agreed. Somehow the unique selling point (USP) is missing, although it’s not always necessary.

Could it be that ice creams are logistically more difficult than drinks, and that’s why drinks are more interesting?

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I also feel that they are trying to bite off too much for a small company. Of course, the margin is good on drinks and bars (for both the store and the manufacturer). But that doesn’t help much when you already have the aforementioned brands, plus Leader (domestic), Fast, Barebells, Sportlife, etc., and ten meters of alternatives on the shelf. :smiley: In ice creams, of course, cold transport creates its own challenges and there is also competition, but I guess the margins are good on these too, since the products are made in, was it Lithuania or Latvia?

In addition, if you look at Fiksuruoka or Matsmart online stores, you can find a lot of these there.

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Today, an announcement stated that 24% of the workforce (20 people) will be laid off.
Quotes translated:

Lohilo Foods made a major investment in 2021 and expanded its organization with 15 new roles compared to the end of 2020 (68 employees), which did not yield the desired results.

“we have simply become too large, inefficient and inflexible an organization for our current focus,” says Richard Hertvig, CEO of Lohilo Foods.

In December, the share issue brought in SEK 59.3 million before issue expenses.

I haven’t bought more. This isn’t a top-value stock by any measure. But if one believes a turnaround is happening, why not. Management reiterated today the goal that profitability would return by mid-2022.

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Yes, those problems were already visible in spring/summer. Products had to be searched for with great difficulty. At the same time, the company spent its money on social media influencers.

There’s no benefit, even if some social media celebrity is shaking their butt with a Lohilo can, when you can’t buy the product.

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It’s a shame that people are getting fired, but in my opinion, these are the right steps to improve profitability. It’s still difficult to predict any major turnaround, so I’ll have to wait until late Q3 to see how sales develop (especially at the peak of the season) and what level of profitability is achieved. Last year, they clearly pursued aggressive growth, but probably expanded too much (plus the can shortage and other supply chain issues), and profitability plummeted.

I still hold this stock, and my position is significantly in the red (fortunately, the invested amount was moderate), but I’m keeping it in my portfolio, hoping for a turnaround, and also as a reminder to follow my investment plan more closely. I certainly don’t dare to buy more :smiley:

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I went to the info desk at Porvoo’s S-Market last week. In front of the counter, there was a separate refrigerator for Lohilo drinks. At least it was in a visible spot now. I hadn’t noticed Lohilo being displayed so prominently before. :thinking:

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The announcement of staff reductions was quite expected, and I actually assumed it would have been done sooner. After all, the management had openly stated that expansion plans had gone awry and costs needed to be cut. In my opinion, the new CEO’s emphasis on getting back to basics, focusing on sales, and cost discipline is a positive sign. Back to basics.

I see the current valuation as very attractive, and I added this to my portfolio for the January rally and for the longer term. Q3 was a complete disaster in all respects, crowned by raw material shortages and a cash crisis, which has driven the stock price to rock bottom. However, the raw material shortage is ultimately a temporary concern, and the company’s products have not deteriorated in the meantime.

At the current price, the P/S ratio is likely somewhere between 0.7-0.8x. In recent quarters, fixed costs have been around 30MSEK, so could we expect savings of approximately 20% from these? With sales of 250-300MSEK and a 35% margin for this year, EBITDA could be close to zero or slightly positive. If we add 10-20% growth next year, an EPS of around 0.5SEK should not be impossible. Similar growth prospects for the following years should be quite realistic, simply due to the opening of new sales regions. These are back-of-the-napkin calculations.

To achieve the figures above, the company certainly doesn’t need to conquer the world; they just need to get sales rolling more or less and not mess up product availability. Regarding Lohilo (Lohilo Foods AB), it’s also important to remember that the impact of beverages on current results is very small. Finland is also a small part of their sales, so one shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from whether there are cans in the Alepa (a grocery store chain) cold section. Despite everything, I myself have noticed that the company’s products are now offered in quite good shelf positions in my local Prisma (a hypermarket chain).

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The entire operation can best be described as sprawling. The worst, of course, was the padel hall fiasco, which makes no sense at all.

To be very unfair, the recent strategy seems to be the brainchild of a 25-year-old freshly graduated Master of Science in Economics (KTM) (KTM) who drafted it while high on social media. I understand that the goal is to specifically create a brand, but you can’t create a brand with energy drinks and ice creams if consumers don’t have access to those products.

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The company announced it will outsource ice cream production in Sweden and close its own factory during Q2 2022. It expects to achieve cost savings from this already in 2022. Source: FLYTTAR PRODUKTION, RESERVERAR 5 MLN KR - Placera.se

I think it’s great that the company has now started working vigorously to improve profitability. Let’s hope the products increasingly generate interest both in Sweden and elsewhere :slight_smile:

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It’s a shame, though, because ice cream was the only area where the company stood out from the n+1 supplement manufacturers. What competitive advantages does Lohilo have in the supplement market?

@DarkRoast, I understood that news between the lines to mean that they don’t want to invest properly in the ice cream side, but rather shift their focus elsewhere.

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Yes, Lohilo will continue selling ice cream, but the manufacturing will be handled by a subcontractor who presumably can scale production better to meet demand. Lohilo will focus on supplying (well, physical delivery will probably be handled by a logistics company) and marketing products, which it apparently knows how to do (or believes it knows how to do) better than manufacturing.

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I completely agree. As I have said before in this thread, ice creams are, in my opinion, the only product category where Lohilo would genuinely have good chances of succeeding. I hope the management has evaluated things better than I have, but I believe the company is currently being led strategically in a completely wrong direction.

I would bet that in five years, this company will either be on the moon or out of business. Feel free to save this prediction.

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Using Google Translate, I at least understood that there is no plan to abandon ice cream in any way; quite the opposite. With the current model, capacity limits are being reached. After the change, production can be scaled larger, made more flexible, and cost benefits can be achieved. Some one-time costs will arise, but the annual benefits are so great that I see this as positive news, though the market seems to see it differently.

The company is in pretty bad shape, but since Hertvig returned as CEO, there has been a feeling that things are starting to move in the right direction. Efforts are being made to streamline operations, and the organization, which is perhaps a bit too large given the situation, and thus its costs, have been cut.

There is potential for a turnaround. The ice creams are excellent products in my opinion. The aim, from an outsider’s perspective, is to create a brand with products for every need. Some diversification is noticeable, for example, into Padel. By sharpening its strategy, Lohilo has a good chance of rebounding. Of course, there is still risk.

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