Lindex Group’s Stockmann report should be completed by the end of the year. Its outcome will likely have a significant impact on Lindex’s share price, as, for example, OP’s estimate values Lindex with Stockmann at €2.20 and without Stockmann at €4.00.
What do you expect to happen?
No, it shouldn’t. Lindex has announced that the report will be completed during H2.
It unfortunately happened that Lindex no longer wanted to continue as an analysis client with us, and the coverage ended today. Since I suspect this might spark discussion, I’ll say right away that we cannot disclose or speculate on the reasons for the decision on behalf of the client. Therefore, comments and questions regarding that can be directed to Lindex.
On my behalf, thanks to everyone for the active discussion here during the three years of coverage! I hope it continues, even if there won’t be further analysis.
One more technical note: in this coverage termination report, forecasts have not been updated, so our latest remaining forecasts were made in July after the Q2 report. Market figures published since then for July-August have been relatively positive. This is just a note, if anyone looks at those figures retrospectively.
Thanks Inderes and @Rauli_Juva for the expert (at the beginning of the new coverage, I was completely of a different opinion 
) and active discussion.
Now Lindex can be safely added to the Model Portfolio, as there’s no need to care about the recommendation.
Something might happen soon…
Well, the operational decision to terminate Inderes’ coverage of Lindex is probably about finding cost-saving measures, of course, here we need to monitor whether OP’s coverage remains or if a new analysis provider might emerge from Sweden (one could certainly draw some conclusions from the latter 
). It’s hard to believe, at least, that the coverage would be terminated because of something the board is currently preparing.
A regrettable decision from Lindex in any case. If the Stockmann division remains part of Lindex after the strategic assessment, then analysis would indeed be sorely needed. Of course, one can draw their own conclusions from @Rauli_Juva’s old reports. I am not at all convinced that a potential Stockmann deal can be finalized; there’s likely disagreement on the matter within the board, not to mention whether there are even any buyer candidates.
As a disclaimer: I will continue as a Lindex owner despite my somewhat pessimistic view, as dividends will be received already next spring
Good point @saku !
OP tracks for free. I don’t know if this has an effect one way or another.
“There can be many reasons behind ending monitoring, but there is only one reason for starting it”
-some great thinker from the era of the ancient Phoenicians
Sensible explanations for ending the monitoring don’t immediately come to mind, so here are my own options listed randomly, i.e., without any particular order.
One possible reason that the entire company, including Lindex, is bought off the stock exchange => no monitoring is needed.
If this were the case, I would wonder why Inderes, which is keen to expand into Sweden (?), would not have been a suitable partner to continue operations (price and coverage issues are, of course, essential).
Cost savings are, in my opinion, the most likely reason. The analysis has so far gone a long way and brought this investment case to the attention of a large audience. Now that Lindex’s hidden value case is known, there is probably no need for analysis, at least not now. The share price will certainly react quite efficiently whether the news from Stockmann is negative or positive.
Of course, I still look at this case through somewhat hopeful and rose-tinted optimistic glasses. The worst fear is precisely that second option, and as the announcement drags on, it no longer seems very utopian. Hopefully, one positive-toned quarter in the Stockmann division has not made the company’s management overconfident with the dying department store business…
Something along these lines, one way or another, for sure. In my opinion, it is now certain that the department stores will continue to be part of the group. As we are in H2, and the closer we get to that decision, the probability of the department stores remaining in the group also increases. Day by day, the scales tip more and more in that direction, and it starts to tie together earlier hints and signs. The company has used various smoke screens along the way regarding the matter, and now, at the latest, the explanation “restructuring has prolonged the strategic assessment” can also be deemed as such. I still believe the company itself delayed the restructuring and its decision due to the strategic assessment. Things have likely reached an impasse here, and possibly other additional factors are preventing the sale. This also highlights the main owner and its role; we know for sure that one buyer was rejected.
Regarding the matter, let’s go back to early June when the last case was settled, even for an amount that was less than what was previously ordered in court. Furthermore, the timing of this was certainly no coincidence either. This could be settled when desired, which is obvious to me. We do not know the other conditions, of course; they can still only be guessed. Since the sum was lower than before, Lindex agreed to some significant change conditions so that LähiTapiola paid less than it should have and was assumed. We know that in light of this, when the company does not have a new owner for the department stores to announce (the “restructuring prolonged” explanation), it was just about playing for time. This also casts the previous assessment postponement in a new light.
The company is perhaps the most archaic and anti-investor currently on the stock exchange. Its communication throughout the process has been dismissive, evasive, and belittling towards investors. The termination of coverage also naturally tells me more about the company wanting less visibility and attention for itself. The termination of coverage could have been done later at any point. Now it is a direct exclamation mark from the company and a warning sign “do not own our stock” for the future. As is the addition in the latest postponement and its announcement, e.g., “…the best option from the perspective of all stakeholders…”.
If the main owner were to buy Stockmann, the matter would not have been completely silent and off-putting, at least not in this way. Since the previously known potential buyer was rejected, the main owner would have been a very clear and even decided buyer for the department stores in this scenario. It would not have needed to be kept, at least not as ridiculously avoided and concealed a matter. At the same time, all this sounds more to me like the main owner is more blocking the sale than anything else.
In December, there will be an announcement that the department stores will remain in the group. After more than two years of review and clarification, there is no other reason, considering all factors, to delay the sale further than intended.
My gut feeling about the Stokka/Lindex situation is that a buyer has not been found. There are probably candidates, but Lindex doesn’t want to pay large enough compensation. Why they are not continuing with Inderes, I don’t know. I don’t consider that a big signal in one direction or another. Companies change service providers like socks when necessary.
The only news of the day is the termination of Inderes’ coverage, and the share price plunges over 5%. This was therefore clearly very bad news.
Well, it certainly doesn’t do any good for investor sentiment if visibility into the company significantly weakens.
In my opinion, the termination of this coverage has perhaps been made more dramatic in every way than it actually is.
The coverage began with the publication of the Coverage Initiation report on 18.11.2022. Presumably, the assignment therefore started around the beginning of October 2022 (preparing a comprehensive report takes time), and now it simply wasn’t renewed at the time of the annual renewal. So I really don’t believe it signifies that something interesting is happening right now, as many seem to think. The one-year contract just expired.
After 2022, the company has also more clearly transformed from Stockmann (Finland focus) to Lindex (Sweden focus). In the current management team, only the Chief Legal Officer is the same as in 2022, when the coverage began. And as we have learned from Inderes’ slow conquest of Sweden, company management there generally does not have the same enthusiasm or perceived need for paid analysis as we do here. According to Lindex’s website, IR is handled by the CFO (who is also from Sweden), who, if I recall correctly, started in autumn 2024. If Inderes sells one-year contracts, this is now, in a way, the first moment when the new CFO has had time to consider the matter and leave their mark.
In all simplicity, I believe the problem is that the company has not seen clear benefits why they should pay money for coverage and then also time (various videos, etc.).
Offtopic, but perhaps this is a somewhat bearish signal for Inderes’ conquest of Sweden, if just a few Swedish members in the management team are enough to thwart even Helsinki-listed companies’ enthusiasm to buy analysis.
It might be that this is just a coincidence and doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but I thought that, considering the other discussed matters, this might interest some.
So, Stockmann / Lindex has opened at least two job positions for application within the last week, and their announcements state the following:
“You’ll be part of Stockmann’s brand-new Digital Commerce unit, a team built to drive the growth of Stockmann omnichannel retail. This is your chance to join and help shape how we work, build, and grow — with direct impact on how our customers shop with us across Finland, Estonia, and Latvia”.
Perhaps this doesn’t actually refer to selling off the Stockmann part, but rather to clarifying the focus?
For example, the announcement can be found here: Category Sales Manager, Beauty - Stockmann - Työpaikat - Duunitori
Really excellent points! Could very well be. I just really don’t believe in coincidence again, and in the coincidences that this case and the last two years have presented. On the contrary, in my opinion, the company is indeed offering and has (would have, if I had noticed) offered quiet signals, which I wrote about above.
I’ll report myself to say that I have indeed consistently been wrong about everything in this case for the past couple of years. 
Hopefully this time too.
It’s not related to ending the monitoring, but I have always thought that if Stockmann is turned profitable, it will very likely be kept. And I have also thought that the strategic review has been continued because Stockmann has still been unprofitable. If and when Stockmann is made profitable, the group will announce this and state that it will keep the profitable Stockmann within the group and sees a bright future for the department stores
In my opinion, the termination of Inderes’ coverage points more towards divesting from Stockmann than the other way around, if there is a connection between the matters.
Why renew Inderes’ coverage in Finland for the next year if the company is deciding to divest from its core business in Finland and Lindex’s listing moves to the Stockholm stock exchange?
If Stockmann were to remain in the group, terminating the coverage would be a bit strange. Just when the company has gotten back on its feet after the pain of corporate restructuring. I am indeed on the same page as Nicolas that it is possible to make Stockmann profitable as well. There is also significant potential in it for the coming years.
Big thanks to Inderes and Rauli Juva for the great work, also in the coverage of Stockmann.
I hope that the announcement of selling Stockmann has only been delayed because it seems to have turned profitable. If previously restructuring would have been a valid excuse to postpone the decision, while there has been a buyer available with reasonable terms, it would be irresponsible of the board not to see what could be gained from selling a profitable business.
Surely nothing prevents them from selling later. In December, it can be announced that a decision has been made to sell, even if there is no buyer at that moment. If the business is profitable, there is no hurry. Or will we get a new listing from this by the end of the year?
Lindex’s non-existent communication is very confusing here. Surely the company could have somehow explained this discontinuation of coverage with a press release. Almost 7000 people follow Lindex via Inderes. Everyone is now a bit confused about what’s going on.