Here’s more on the same topic on X.
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It should be added that the Q4 technical result was improved by the release of technical reserves in motor insurance. Thus, the better stand-alone Q4 result is not on a so-called underlying level (see below).
The cost ratio, JV-adjusted, remains over 70% for both 2025 and 2024, meaning that practically no progress has been made in the cost level on an annual basis.
Regarding sales expenses, it is utopian to think that every sales dollar would yield exponential returns. The biggest problem with the D2C model is that customers leave at a steady rate. Sales expenses would need to be pushed below 20% for there to be any hope of profitability in the long run.
It is also interesting to see what happens to D2C models if ChatGPT integrations with insurance companies increase. The D2C model is, however, alongside aggregators, most at risk from AI.
But let’s continue monitoring. We are still very far from sensible operations.
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https://x.com/fallacyalarm/status/2024532879620051048?s=46&t=499WpwaAyJmQ9CLT93iGoA
Disruption is indeed very expensive..
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Here is a tweet about Lemonade after the Q4 results from Markus, familiar from the “Alokas haastattelee” thread. 
In the tweet, he breaks down, among other things, the background behind Lemonade’s -40 percent drop. He highlights various critical observations regarding ADR, the profitability timeline, etc.
https://x.com/ValueByMarkus/status/2024898106119389598
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competitor’s earnings report
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Q1/26 will be published on 29.04.2026
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Paperbag’s Q1 preview https://youtu.be/JA4tuDOqijU?is=nVPU9uaZnhpuotk8
Q1 hasn’t been boring for the course. Good shares have been available for even half price! 
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And here’s the link to the letter.
Deadly boring execution, the LMND way!
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The market’s reaction was interesting, a good buying opportunity for many bulls. It might have been dragged down a bit by the sell-off in SoFi and Hood?
Personally, it doesn’t matter to me as I won’t be selling for years. I might buy some more in the autumn if the price is right.
LMND’s future looks bright; I wouldn’t dare put my money into Berkshire. Management is completely clueless.
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A bit late on this, but let’s continue the monitoring. The decrease in sales expenses (Q1) is positive, although there is a lot of variation at the quarterly level; the trailing 12 months is still close to 40%, as is 2025. There is no clear picture of solvency, nor the strength of technical provisions. The underwriting burn is still at a level of ~200 MUSD per year, so the long journey continues. It is likely they will have to turn to shareholders’ pockets sooner or later.
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Here is the trailing 12 months for the last six quarters. It’s very flat progress… speaks volumes about Lemonade’s reporting and “incredible development”…
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LMND has acquired more expertise for building AI sandboxes.
There are rumors on X that these tools will be used to simulate interactions between AI agents and customers.
https://x.com/itschrisray/status/2056406604988272932
Regarding @AP_1981’s comments about tapping into owners’ pockets (dilution). I don’t see it as completely impossible that money would be raised. But in that situation, it would be a case where investors are knocking at the door and they want to significantly accelerate growth. From the letter:
Cash & Investments
The Company’s cash, cash equivalents, and investments totaled approximately
$1.14 billion at March 31, 2026.
As of March 31, 2026, we were required to hold approximately $290 million of
regulatory surplus at our insurance subsidiaries.
Investor Day #3 is on November 17 in NYC; Shai already posted a bit of a teaser. Since LMND is usually very conservative in its estimates, expectations are typically beaten time after time. It’s hard to believe they would back down an inch from what has been announced; there have been rumors in the LMND community that Investor Day would be a good time to announce a positive profit warning (posari) and achieving this ahead of schedule.
“We steadily progress towards our first Adj. EBITDA positive quarter,
which we continue to expect in Q4 2026.”
Judging by the market reaction, the period leading up to Investor Day could be a good time to add to positions, and the market may potentially offer very good entry points.
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Mainly regarding the speculation about “owners’ pockets”; Lemonade Inc (the parent group) is listed on the stock exchange, and with a little effort, the P&L and balance sheets of the insurance companies themselves are available (see those marked in green), while those of the various service companies are not. The GAAP results of the insurance companies (where the tied-up cash, i.e., 1.14 BUSD, should presumably be reduced by risk capital and technical provisions?) were at least profitable at the last review, meaning transfer pricing is not being utilized to its full extent… since the group is loss-making, a significant amount of (rather limited?) free cash is being burned either at the subsidiary or parent level. The hockey-stick-like growth in Q1 (pricing?) and a possible EBITDA 0 (which otherwise has no significance) are weak signals that a share issue (anti) could be in the works.
It remains problematic with Lemonade that figures for all subsidiaries are not available, and they use their own (consolidated) figures in reporting… there is still not much trust-inspiring activity in their operations (a matter of taste)…
..but let’s keep following.
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Confidence is bolstered by this thread on X, where an individual with 34 years of experience in the insurance industry shares insights on the company from an insider perspective. They previously held a significant role at PGR (Progressive), among others.
In my opinion, it would require a bit more evidence to claim that LMND is misrepresenting its numbers.
Of course, anything is possible, but it is difficult to see why an already extremely wealthy founder duo would choose to build a company on top of fraud.
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I made a video about Lemonade, hope you enjoy it! For those who have followed the case more closely, there might not be much new, but at least it’s a cross-section of this insurance company 
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I mean, which company even reports the income statements of all its subsidiaries? The whole point of group reporting is based on consolidating the results. How many listed companies report the financials of their 100% owned subsidiaries?
For the majority of companies, the income statements and balance sheets of subsidiaries are available through various corporate registries. However, this is not the case with Lemonade, making it practically impossible to perform a de-consolidated performance analysis on one’s own. Consequently, the transparency of the company’s operations is very poor.
Even when Lemonade first entered the market, the entire IPO prospectus was largely just “hype.” The reported figures were not convincing back then, and they still do not align with the standard reporting practices of insurance companies. Furthermore, various claims have been made during the company’s existence whose accuracy has proven to be questionable.
For these reasons, there remains a significant amount of skepticism toward the management. But let’s monitor the situation. My guess is that they will be back tapping the pockets of shareholders before the end of this year.
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