I would challenge this a bit because, to my eye, it looks like a lot of expectations are already baked into the current price. By what metrics or key figures do you consider Lemonade cheap?
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I canât provide a better analysis of the LMND valuation than Paperbag myself; here is a video from 2 months ago. There might even be some bumps along the way, but the fair value today is likely somewhere around $150-200, and Iâm sure that will be reflected in the share price by the end of the year.
Iâm doing the work for you now, but that guy (lemonade super bull) seems to be taking his estimates from his spreadsheet. Briefly, I suppose if you calculate that if itâs given a P/E 100 valuation in 2029, this stock would be worth $182 now. Of course, itâs worth noting that Lemonade hasnât had a single positive quarter yet, and in Q3 25 revenue was $162 million and the result was -$37.5 million. The companyâs market cap, by the way, is $6 billion, so as I see it, there are a lot of expectations loaded into the stock price.
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Valuating a super-grower is challenging. Sure, if the current growth started to stall, one could question that pricing. But the situation has been the opposite for the past year. If things donât turn profitable by the end of 2026, as LMND management has stated, it would definitely be a red flag.
Of course Lemonade is risky. Growing pains and such will surely occur, and these are followed closely in the LMND community as well. Competitors, such as Geico, have also hired people intended to close the gap on LMNDâs lead.
But the company is exceptional, the management is experienced, and they have experience in scaling startups. The timing has also been spot on, as they began developing an AI-driven insurance company more than 5 years before AI became a hot topic.
It is easy for insurance companies to grow revenue by selling cheaper than others if they donât need to make a profit on insurance operations, which is currently the case with Lemonade. Personally, I wouldnât talk about a âhyper-growerâ here even though revenue has increased; to me, it looks like normal good growth for revenue of that size. When revenue is in the billion-dollar range, growth percentages will likely look different anyway. If I remember correctly, part of the revenue growth is also currently due to reducing the reinsurance share, which canât be done indefinitelyâisnât that the case?
I understand the difficulty of valuing hyper-growth companies like Iren or Nebius, which quickly pivot their business from bitcoin mining â AI data centers and see revenue grow by many hundreds of percent per year.
If you want to think about how much expectation is priced into the stock right now, you can consider how much you would pay for a company with that amount of revenue and negative earnings at 0% growth?
Here is the revenue:
EPS development:
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This has already been discussed in this thread, but the business is already profitable if growth investments are not taken into account. Reinsurance was reduced this year from 55% â 20%, and it will be reflected in the revenue (LV) gradually, becoming fully effective by next summer.
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Here is Markusâs tweet about Lemonade launching autonomous car insurance for self-driving cars. 
IMO, being early here compounds over time: lower prices for customers (-50%), healthier loss ratios, superior underwriting data, and a shot at category leadership in autonomous insurance.
https://x.com/ValueByMarkus/status/2014094118188630384
In this tweet, Markus âquotedâ his old tweet from October:
https://x.com/ValueByMarkus/status/1979261528189673770
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A certain Elon Musk shares the same.
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Adding the link to the original: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014039116854300810?s=46
I almost choked on my latte yesterday when I checked the market in the evening and the price was knocking on the door of a hundred. As soon as I saw the tweet this morning, I was sure $90 would be broken. The journey is only just beginning; itâs certain there will be plenty of volatility ahead. About 40 days until the Q4 results and 2026 guidance. A great year 2026 ahead!
The number of investors on Nordnet is growing nicely, but for comparison, Faron has over 12k ownersâŠ
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