Lassila & Tikanoja

Well, it seems they’ve put their buying pants on to celebrate the spring.

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Lassila & Tikanoja strengthens its waste management services by acquiring the share capital of Kempeleen Siirtokuljetus Oy and Kempeleen Jätekuljetus Oy

Lassila & Tikanoja has signed an agreement on 18 May 2026 to acquire the share capital of Kempeleen Siirtokuljetus Oy and its subsidiary Kempeleen Jätekuljetus Oy. The acquisition supports L&T’s strategic growth targets and strengthens the company’s waste management and recycling service offering in the Northern Ostrobothnia region. The completion of the transaction is subject to approval by the Finnish Competition and Consumer Authority (KKV).

Kempeleen Siirtokuljetus Oy (founded in 1993) and Kempeleen Jätekuljetus Oy (founded in 1981) form a group specializing in waste management and recycling services operating in Northern Ostrobothnia, providing comprehensive solutions from waste collection and transport to processing and material recovery. In 2025, the combined net sales of Kempeleen Siirtokuljetus Oy and Kempeleen Jätekuljetus Oy were approximately EUR 14 million. The companies employ a total of about 50 people. The operations of the companies will continue normally within the current entities for the time being.

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Here are Rauli’s comments on L&T’s recent acquisition :slight_smile:

Lassila & Tikanoja announced on Monday that it is acquiring the share capital of Kempeleen Siirtokuljetus Oy and its subsidiary Kempeleen Jätekuljetus Oy. The combined revenue of the acquired companies was approximately EUR 14 million in 2025, but their profit level or the purchase price were not disclosed. Since the company’s targeted 6% annual growth relies partly on acquisitions, we consider the transaction strategically logical for L&T. It adds approximately 3% to the company’s revenue. We will revise our forecasts upward at the latest when the transaction is confirmed.

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The operating profit margin, according to Asiakastieto’s figures, was just over 7% overall. In all likelihood, the purchase price should be below L&T’s multiples, and there is likely some room for efficiency improvements.

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Could one point of the acquisition be to remove the “worst competitor” from the area, potentially allowing for slight price increases?

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L&T is starting to become so cheap that even I, as a growth and risk investor, am starting to get interested. There are surely reasons for the low price, but if one were to give the company two or three years, could there be potential here?

I wonder what L&T’s management thinks—is the share price already so depressed that it’s time for buybacks? Would the company have the cash position for this? Generally speaking, too much is paid out in dividends in Finland compared to growth investments and share buybacks.

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I was in pretty much the same mood about three years ago when I became an L&T shareholder. Unfortunately, the stock chart has just been gradually trending downwards from what I considered a bargain price back then.

My spark of hope for any significant rally is starting to fade, and I actually sold a third of my position yesterday. In my opinion, the corporate management hasn’t been inspiring either — if I remember correctly, it was the previous CFO who didn’t own a single share.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear another profit warning this summer due to rising diesel prices caused by the crisis in the Middle East.

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The Phoebus fund (portfolio manager Anders Oldenburg) continued accumulating L&T in May. Contrarians on the move :fish:

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Diesel prices have risen, but perhaps that is already being priced in, and in the long run, its impact will likely remain fairly short-lived. Indeed, the company’s dividend yield is starting to look attractive at these prices. I’ll put this on my watchlist: will it drift closer to 6 than 7 euros?

At the same time, however, I feel like calling the CEO in for a “stern talk.” By what means does L&T intend to convince the markets that the company is a good investment? Where will growth—specifically profitable growth—come from? Surely the intention isn’t to settle for the role of a micro-growing dividend machine? Should we launch a share buyback program already, or is there a better use for the cash?

Bring on the ROAST, Inderes! :smiley:

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Lassila & Tikanoja Q2/2026 date: August 6, 2026. It will be interesting to see the effects of the efficiency measures and the spin-off, as well as how they have managed to pass on rising costs (e.g., fuels) to their services/end products.

Right now, the price of crude oil is trending downwards. -5% in a day and -24% in a month.

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So far, that hasn’t really been reflected in pump prices.

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This was discussed in Seligson’s latest review:

Since my last introduction, L&T has – yet again – been a weak investment. Including dividends and adjusted for the demerger of Luotea, it has returned only +4%, while Phoebus has returned +45% and our benchmark index +62%. So why do I still hold it in the portfolio?

Because there is plenty of potential and the valuation is quite cheap.

Over the last four years, the company has generated an average operating profit of €42m (9.8% of revenue). Its market capitalization is €255m, and with €95m in net debt (excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities), the enterprise value is €350m – that is only 8 times operating profit, meaning the “debt-free P/E ratio” is 10x.

The potential has simply not materialized into growth, unlike with its competitors.

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Inderes’ latest view on L&T:

The new company aims for stronger growth than its history

The new L&T’s financial targets are 6% annual net sales growth (including acquisitions), an 11% adjusted EBITA margin, and net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 1.5–2.5x. According to the company’s carve-out figures, the adjusted EBITA margin has been around 10% between 2022 and 2025. We forecast it to be just under 9.0% in 2026, but to recover back to around 10% by 2028, supported by operational efficiencies and a slightly improving demand situation. The company’s historical growth has been quite modest. Therefore, achieving the 3% market growth forecast for the coming years organically would, in our view, be a good performance. In the coming years, achieving growth is hampered by the negative effects of the municipalization of waste management in Finland. Our forecasts expect growth that is clearly more modest than the target, but they do not include major growth investments or acquisitions, which would be required in practice to meet the growth target.

We consider the stock’s valuation to be affordable

In our assessment, L&T’s return expectation for the coming years consists of a steady dividend yield (6–7%), moderate earnings growth, and multiple expansion potential. The stock’s valuation level is, in our view, affordable by many metrics (e.g., the 2026 adjusted P/E and EV/EBIT are around 10x), but a stronger increase in multiples may require a clearer outlook for net sales and earnings growth than what we currently see. We also believe the company is a very potential acquisition target for both private equity investors and industrial players, which in part supports the return expectation.

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L&T should focus more heavily on winning waste management contracts for data center construction sites. At many of these sites, they are willing to pay an arm and a leg. Buildings are going up at a rapid pace, and dumpsters need to be emptied off a conveyor belt. I’ve heard it mentioned several times that price doesn’t matter, as long as the job gets done and the sh*t keeps moving.

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Negative profit warning:

"New outlook for 2026:

Revenue for 2026 is estimated to be EUR 420–450 million and adjusted EBITA EUR 33–38 million. In 2025, the company’s revenue was EUR 426.6 million and adjusted EBITA was EUR 40.6 million (on a carve-out basis).

Previously published outlook for 2026:

Revenue for 2026 is estimated to be EUR 420–450 million and adjusted EBITA EUR 38–44 million. In 2025, the company’s revenue was EUR 426.6 million and adjusted EBITA was EUR 40.6 million (on a carve-out basis).

Reasons for the outlook adjustment

In January–June 2026, Lassila & Tikanoja’s preliminary revenue was EUR 211.1 million (199.4) and preliminary adjusted EBITA was EUR 10.1 million (15.9). The profitability of the environmental services business in January–June 2026 has developed more weakly than the previous year. In addition to a decline in waste management volumes, profitability was burdened by an increase in costs of approximately EUR 3 million compared to the previous year due to rising fuel prices, as well as an increase in gate fees for waste directed to incineration, which was driven by an oversupply of incinerable waste in the market. In the longer term, the oversupply of waste incineration capacity in Finland is estimated to create downward pressure on gate fees."

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CEO Hautaniemi’s career

Oriola 2006-2016
L&T 2017-

A sad journey, indeed. Endless promises.

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Both companies share/shared a faceless ownership base, so it is worth focusing on the company’s board of directors from that perspective.

Oriola was indeed steered into such a dead end during that time that multiple people have been trying to resolve it for ten years already with poor success. Even back then, measures were long demanded from the board, but they were a long time coming.

Regarding L&T, the same signs have been visible for years, and for this reason, I divested my holdings in the company a few years ago. I will consider investing again once the management has changed.

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Here are Rauli’s thoughts in the form of an analysis on the profit warning. :slight_smile:

L&T reported preliminary Q2 figures that fell short of our expectations. Consequently, the company lowered its full-year guidance, which was also reflected in a downward revision of our forecasts. However, we see the company as capable of correcting the weak earnings performance of the early year and achieving better results in the coming years. Even with this year’s lackluster earnings, we consider the valuation attractive (e.g., 2026 P/E 10x), and in our view, the company is also a highly potential M&A target. We reiterate our buy recommendation but lower our target price to 8.3 euros (previously 8.5e) following the downward revision of our forecasts.

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Rauli is hedging, because L&T is reporting its Q2 results next Thursday. :slight_smile:

The company already provided preliminary data on its second-quarter figures in July and simultaneously lowered its full-year earnings guidance, so the main points of the report are already known to the market. According to the preliminary figures, the Q2 result fell clearly compared to the comparison period. Our focus in the report will mainly be on more detailed comments regarding the outlook for the rest of the year.

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