Circular Economy as an Investment

There didn’t seem to be a thread on this topic yet, and it’s something I’m very interested in. I anticipate the so-called circular economy becoming a megatrend in the coming years, which is interesting from an investor’s perspective. The circular economy means, among other things, that produced materials and products remain in circulation for as long as possible and generate as little waste as possible. Recycling is one part of the circular economy, but it is much more, including technologies linked to services that create added value. Of course, maintenance and reuse are important aspects, ensuring that value is preserved for a long time.

Natural resources are not endless, and if everyone in the world consumed in a Western style, natural resources would quickly be depleted. This necessitates smarter resource use – “more with less” – and is also driven by the threat of climate change. This is not just about “hippie ideals”; the circular economy is closely linked to technology and economic growth.

From an investor’s perspective, “product as a service” (PaaS) operators are, in my view, beneficiaries of the circular economy. When it comes to individual stocks, the options are quite limited in my opinion. Companies focused on recycling, of course, are potential firms for those interested in circular economy investing, as are all companies working with renewable energy sources.

As an investor, the options are to pick individual companies or invest in an ETF or a fund. On the fund side, I’ve only come across a few options: the BGF Circular Economy Fund, which has an annual fee of 1.82%, quite high even for an active fund, and on the ETF side, the BNP PARIBAS EASY ECPI CIRCULAR ECONOMY LEADERS ETF, which is cost-effective (annual fee 0.30%) and can be acquired, for example, from the German stock exchange. The ETF is quite new (approx. 6 months) and still has relatively little assets under management (approx. €26 million).

What do others think about circular economy investing?

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Have you invested in companies specializing in waste management/recycling? I’ve owned L&T shares occasionally, but it’s always led to disappointments, so I’ve been thinking about looking for investment opportunities outside Finland. I’m currently following Advanced Disposal Services and Waste Management from the US. There’s also Suez from France, but the dividend taxation on French stocks reduces my interest in investing there. It would be great to hear from others about their investments in the waste/recycling business.

I have Vow (formerly Scanship), a Norwegian company, in my portfolio.

“Vow ASA designs, engineers, and provide solutions for waste management and wastewater purification to markets worldwide. The company offers solutions such as wastewater purification, food and industrial waste processing, production of renewable materials and products, molecules, and fuels from organic waste and biomass, valorization of non-recyclable plastic and polymers, sterilization of food and electrified high-temperature processing of minerals. Its solutions convert biomass and waste into valuable resources and generate clean energy for marine applications and land-based industries.”

I jumped on board a little over a year ago at a price of just over 6 NOK. Now the share price is around 20 NOK, but still “on a corona discount” compared to a few months ago.

A few years ago, I researched Waste Management, but I didn’t end up investing in it. In the spring, I took a quick look, but it still didn’t really excite me; I find its valuation challenging at the current price. I haven’t followed the others you mentioned.

Norway also has Tomra Systems, which focuses on recycling, and this has also been performing incredibly well in recent years. I own it indirectly through Latour.

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I recently bought the aforementioned ETF. The portfolio content is interesting (it includes, for example, Nvidia, Vestas Wind Systems, Adobe, Lowes, etc.).

Time will tell if this brings excess returns compared to a broad global ETF.

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Vow gets more orders from shipping companies.

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Vow reported good results today (there was a link to the results report in the energy chain). Recycling companies seem to be in an interesting phase.

I looked into the industry’s offerings a bit and came across the Canadian company Waste Connections. It’s a bit similar to Vow, but operates in North America and mainly deals with solid waste. They also pay a growing dividend.

It’s been quiet here. Well, things are happening in the circular economy sector in Norway.

Today, an interesting-looking company was listed on the Norwegian stock exchange. It’s Bergen Carbon Solutions, which uses carbon dioxide as a raw material to produce carbon nanofibers, which can be used, for example, in lithium-ion batteries, energy production, and many other applications. I also linked this to the Aker Carbon Capture thread.

The company is still in the start-up phase, so it’s a high-risk stock. The operation is ecologically sustainable, as harmful carbon dioxide is put to good use. Environmentally friendly hydropower is used in production.

Company investor presentation: https://bergencarbonsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/BCS-Company-presentation-2021.pdf

Listing prospectus: https://bergencarbonsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/BCS-Final-Information-Document-dated-19-April-2021.pdf

Link to another thread:

Aker Carbon Capture - ACC-ME

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I’ve been following this for a while myself; it’s an interesting company. If even half of the claims about the material’s technical properties are true, major changes will occur in material choices. I’m involved through Saga Pure, so I can diversify some of the risk.

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https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/ReleaseNg/401123779
Vow ASA’s (VOW) subsidiary ETIA has received the confirmation from Repsol to deliver a pilot plant to demonstrate the capabilities of VOW Biogreen® systems integration in petrochemical and refineries sites for processing alternative feedstock to generate fuels and materials with low carbon footprint.

“We are very excited to provide technology to support Repsol on their ambitious roadmap towards becoming a net zero emissions company. This contract proves the high relevance of our technologies as an essential solution in the decarbonization strategy of large industries”; says Vow ASA CEO Henrik Badin.

“We are pleased to incorporate ETIA pyrolysis technology in the Repsol Technology Lab. Working with world-class suppliers like Vow gives us the assurance that we are on the right track to provide society with the products it needs with a low carbon footprint”, says Jaime Martin Juez, Executive Director Technology and Corporate Venturing.

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Is anyone else still following the company?

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https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/energia-alan-teknologinen-kehitys-ja-sijoitusmahdollisuudet/2568/9124?u=ripetirip

This could fit here too?

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No, it doesn’t, but it is an interesting company indeed. Thanks @Bjorninen for bringing it up. The industry is interesting and seems exactly like the kind where I usually tend to lose money.

So, I bought a small research position, which motivated me to spend this evening filling out my Excel sheet.

The company’s figures look good on the surface.
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That 2-yr Fwd is misleading, though, because it takes into account this year’s massive rise. The company is followed by one analyst (DNB), and they have quite moderate growth forecasts for the coming years:
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Excess returns (and losses) are made by being a contrarian, so I thought I’d look into the growth potential. I typed the available figures into Excel and looked at what the 12-month trailing revenue and the order backlog look like on the same chart.

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I think they look pretty good! Whenever the order backlog has grown, revenue has followed, at least over some timeframe. I can’t yet assess the sustainability of the backlog, but the 2022 annual report contains a section like this.

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I wonder if @Bjorninen or someone else could estimate how significant a breakthrough this is? Various sources do state that Cambi is a leading player in the field, and the industry is likely growing at a healthy pace due to various public investments, but the story still needs more meat on its bones to fully convince me.

The company’s expenses seem to have remained relatively constant, so the growth appears to have been organic. There were some adjustments following the new segment structure presented at the Capital Markets Day. Apparently, some items were moved from other operating expenses to COGS, but EBIT seems to have remained fairly comparable. It looks like a quarterly revenue of 100 mNOK acts as a kind of breakeven point where the business starts to scale nicely.
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My research is still very much a work in progress, but the order backlog and scalability seem quite interesting and promising. The CEO went on paternity leave for a few months. I haven’t come across that with a listed company before.

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This could fit in the circular economy thread, where there is some discussion about the company.

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Cambin arvostus on alle verrokkien norjalaisen Finans Avisenin mukaan.

Alla oleva teksti on kopioitu Sharevillestä.

Alkuperäinen artikkeli:

Good contract coverage DNB Markets also has a buy recommendation on the sludge treatment company Cambi, which has a leading technology for thermal hydrolysis and benefits from a growing market. - This has been shown in the activity this year, and the order intake of 4.2 times the income in the third quarter gives good visibility going forward, says Brøndbo. - Based on our revenue estimates, the company has a contract coverage of 73 per cent, 60 per cent and 50 per cent for 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively, According to the analyst, Cambi’s high level of activity is not fully reflected in the share price. - The company value corresponds to 8.3 times next year’s Ebitda estimate, while other waste management and recycling companies trade at around 12 times, she explains. Expect lower inflation - Core inflation in Norway and many other countries is still well above the central banks’ inflation target. How will this affect the companies you mention, if these conditions persist? - Persistently high core inflation will affect the entire renewables sector negatively, as this both increases the development cost of new projects and typically results in high interest rates and thus increases the projects’ capital cost, replies Brøndbo. … Cambi’s contracts largely contain inflation adjustments.

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https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/vastuullinen-sijoittaminen/78/273?u=ripetirip

Inderes podcast episode on the theme of this thread!

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Based on the aforementioned interview video with Timo Huhtamäki, I started researching what kind of ETFs are available around this theme, and I came across two interesting ones:

Rize Circular Economy Enablers UCITS ETF (CYCL)

and

VanEck Circular Economy UCITS ETF (REUS)
https://www.vaneck.com/fi/en/investments/circular-economy-etf/overview/

At a quick glance, they are relatively similar in size (30 and 26 holdings) and their costs are in the same range (0.45% p.a. and 0.4% p.a.) and they have performed fairly equally, with REUS performing slightly better so far.

However, their contents are quite different because they track different indices. REUS seems to feature more large industrial players (the domestic UPM is also there!) and waste management companies, while CIRC contains circular economy companies more broadly; for example, there are companies that rent out goods.

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I hold the BNP Paribas circular economy ETF, specifically the BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Circular Economy Leaders UCITS ETF, which is available on Nordnet, for instance. I personally have the version listed in Paris with the “REUSE” ticker.

Its ongoing charges are slightly lower (0.30%) and the diversification is slightly broader, with 50 companies.

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I was looking at what that BNP Paribas ETF contains. It includes the likes of Intel, UPM-Kymmene, Caterpillar, Adobe, Loreal, Sony, ASML, Nike, Coca-cola company, Pepsi, Heineken, BMW, Ford, LVMH, Pernod Ricard…

The work of ETF fund managers seems to be quite a creative business. Circular economy wouldn’t be the first thing that comes to mind with these companies. :thinking:

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Onko vielä yhtiön seuraajia? Itsellä on ollut muutaman vuoden seurantapositio ja harkinnut lisäämistä tästä dipistä. Kannattavuus on ja on ollut koetuksella, mutta näkymät vaikuttaa hyvältä.

Oslo, 28 February 2024: Vow ASA (OSE: VOW) revenues for the full year 2023 were NOK 918.5 million, a 17 per cent increase from the year before. EBITDA before non-recurring items was negative NOK 23.4 million for the full year. In addition, the company recorded non-recurring items of negative NOK 31.3 million, mainly related to non-cash balance sheet clean-up in contract accruals. This resulted in a negative EBITDA for the year of NOK 54.7 million versus a positive NOK 85.5 million in 2022.

“The year 2023 was a year of high activity and revenue. A large number of projects were successfully delivered. Activity in aftersales was increasing. We also secured important new contracts and moved into position for new projects in new industry verticals,” said Henrik Badin, CEO of Vow ASA.

At the end of 2023, the order backlog was NOK 1 034 million and another NOK 921 million in options. The backlog and options are providing visibility for revenues and good margins well into 2025/26.

“We have also spent much time on clean-up and reassessments of project accounts and balance sheet items, which we had hoped to conclude in the third quarter, but which unfortunately continued for the rest of the year. The underlying reasons are the same as reported before, adjustments in the project portfolio, increased cost, and reduced revenue in the reporting period. This resulted in a negative operating result and bottom line for the reporting period and for the year,” Badin added.

A comprehensive cost savings programme for 2024 is being executed. Work processes, operational setup and delivery model is being streamlined to improve efficiency and mitigate operational risks, and capacity is being aligned with actual demand. In the fourth quarter, Vow also sold the subsidiary Ascodero, to further free up management capacity and financial and other resources.

Outlook

During the past year, significant new signals have been heard and seen from leading industrial players, which confirm the rationale behind the decisions and investments made to position Vow for the future. Large players in the metals industry, such as Outokumpu and Elkem, have committed to extensive use of biocarbon for replacing fossil carbon in their production processes.

With high energy costs and increasing climate gas emission costs, heat-intensive industries are intensifying the search for low-carbon solutions, which in most cases mean electrification of their heating processes. As a result, demand for C.H. Evensen technology has grown substantially and is likely to continue growing.

Leading cruise companies, widely recognized for having adopted pioneering clean ship solutions, have already taken further steps to valorise waste and generate renewable energy - by introducing advanced technology from Vow on board their ships.

In other industry verticals, leading companies are forging ahead with plans to roll out multiple end-of-life tire plants for recovery of carbon black, large-scale carbon refineries and sophisticated plants for safe treatment of sewage sludge and contagious PFAS components therein. Pyrolysis technology from Vow plays a key role in all the above, and concrete projects are being lined up.

“Our company is well positioned for these and other opportunities. We have identified a pipeline of some 80 large projects, with total investments exceeding NOK 25 billion in the coming years. 2023 and 2024 will be years of transition, as the company gears up for our “15 from 25” goal: achieving an EBITDA margin of 15 per cent from the end of 2024,” Henrik Badin concluded.

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I’m following this now. This was good. I’ve missed this whole thread, unfortunately…
Today I had time to browse the forum and this caught my eye.

For some reason, I’ve spent time in Northern Norway on the islands of the Arctic Ocean and seen the amount of plastic waste there.

Everything done to prevent that waste is really positive.

If we could also root out the local habit of burning trash on the beach at low tide through recycling, that would be even better.

Vow seems to have a lot of other good things going for it, but I took a position here based on the aforementioned.

Hopefully, the future goes according to the company’s plans.

Just some general thoughts about the company after a quick look, without even having a particularly “green” mindset.

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