As long as assets are bought and sold within the market mechanism, these emotions will be present. It’s good to be aware of this. The problem is that even if one or two phases have been identified in a certain market, you never know if the next phase will occur in that particular cycle. You might miss the next one and the one after that.
Many losses have occurred, or opportunity costs, when someone has correctly identified phases and unluckily bet on the next phase coming obediently in its turn.
The US is full of these “value stocks” whose revenue is stagnant, earnings aren’t growing, and yet they trade at 25+ P/E. If I had these in my portfolio, I’d dump them faster than the forum’s pigs could squeal.
Indeed, today I’ve had to check the news media many times to see if the war is escalating or if there are any rumors even beneath the surface. And no, quite the opposite, Putin reportedly looks tired and unhappy according to Helsingin Sanomat (Finnish daily newspaper). Somehow, my own state of mind just isn’t in sync with market sentiment right now
In my opinion, we are pretty much in a panic phase. Everything is being sold without any reason right now, at the same time as companies are announcing record results. The fear of the future is starting to become quite irrational.
I don’t know about peer support, but if I learned anything from the corona panic, it’s that now is the time to keep your finger off the sell button; prices will eventually rise. There’s a lot of the same feeling in the air now as there was in March 2020. In some cases, it’s even worse; for example, Kone is already clearly below its corona lows.
I calculated the YTD for the query here this afternoon. It was -12%. Today’s decline so far has been -9%. There is a slight overlap in those figures, of course, but it’s somehow a sharply dull turn downwards all of a sudden.
As I read other people’s comments, my own YTD of -19% is starting to feel like a good investment… or not. And I still have a lot of Harvia in my portfolio
Well, Sepe (S&P 500) already peeked below 4000, but bounced back up a bit. I’m guessing we’ll close above 4000, but the decline will probably continue. There would be more support at the 3700 levels. If that support doesn’t hold either, then I’d think 3300 would be pretty strong support levels, as that was the bottom of the 2020 autumn dip, from which the vaccine/Biden rally really took off.
Things are really tough; even the Russell (Russell 2000) is starting to approach pre-corona levels, meaning nearly the entire two-year period will soon be wiped out. A proper corona boost reset is underway. On the US hype-tracking list, -10% seems to be the basic situation, and the more robust ones are pulling a -20% dive. And all this decline seems to be practically due to a 0.5% interest rate hike, as Putin was very bland today and didn’t declare wars, as was feared.
Edit: I’d also add that the Russell 2000 has now come down about 28% from its peak, and in the corona dip, it came down about 31% from the previous peak. If you were to remove the energy stocks that have stayed well afloat from the Russell, we would already be in a significantly deeper squat than in 2020. This gives a good idea of how much some stocks there, like new IPOs (Initial Public Offerings), deSPACs (De-Special Purpose Acquisition Companies), and others, have declined now.
Scorpios also down nicely -11%. I don’t think there were even such drops during the worst corona days. My portfolio today -6.5%. Luckily, it doesn’t really feel like anything. Remember all fellow investors, one day the bottom will be found and a new rise will begin. As long as you remember that and keep risks under control, you don’t have to stress.
Edit: I hadn’t even noticed that BP, which should benefit from the market situation, is down -6.68% today. This is some big boys’ joint selling day, where the weaker ones are shaken off and stop-losses are triggered.
Regarding the deep squat in Helsinki, I’m almost starting to suspect that some of the pressure came from Helsingin Sanomat’s (Hesari) doomsday announcement this morning… Because otherwise I couldn’t really figure out why absolutely everything plummeted and Helsinki’s market dropped more than double that of the US market.
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