I bought a 250 g bar five years ago in March around the time of the worst crash, as I think I’ve mentioned before. I intend to keep it “forever” (unless I’m forced to trade it for bread 
so the heirs can do whatever they want with it.
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This time, mines might actually prove to be very good long-term investments – which they haven’t really ever been. This is because many do not see or possess very promising additional deposits into which they could expand (and interest in M&A may be low, as competitors’ valuations are also challenging). So, profits will surely be used more for increasing shareholder value. I would venture to guess that the next dividend machines will be found among these.
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The world is full of articles about Berkshire Hathaway’s legendarily great investments and investment philosophy. People flock to Omaha to hear these thoughts annually, flying in from many different continents. I’m sure it’s a pleasant pastime.
But the fact is that the return on Berkshire stock has been beaten simply by buying gold in 2000 and holding it until now. There has been no need to perform any company analysis or risky investments. One could sleep well at night – even during the financial crisis.
I had an AI perform a calculation of the returns, and after the latest rally, silver and gold clearly beat Berkshire (I had to have the table corrected a few times because even the AI wasn’t quite up to date on current price levels). That’s how the world changes.
| Investment | Price Jan 1, 2000 | Price Jan 30, 2026 | Total Return (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver (oz) | ~$5.34 | ~$110.80 | +1,975% |
| Gold (oz) | ~$289.00 | ~$5,200.00 | +1,699% |
| Berkshire (BRK-B) | ~$37.40* | ~$476.00 | +1,173% |
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Silver, gold sell off as precious metals markets nosedive
Silver plummets 15%, gold falls 7% — dragging down miners and ETFs
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It’s been a real downhill slide for both, 72-hour performance: silver -23.7% and gold -5.8% (within that 72-hour window, they both still managed to push even higher; the corresponding figures were -27.9% and -9.8%).
Was this the end of the bull market for gold? Looking at the larger declines in futures contracts, there have been three 8-9% daily drops since the futures market opened (1975). Yesterday, the drop was 8.35%. According to these patterns, there should be one more rise to the highs or near them. After that, a bear market could, of course, begin. Euro investors don’t have as much to worry about with the timing, because if gold starts to tank, the dollar conversely rises in value. This means Europeans can sell their holdings near peak rates even if they are a bit late. So, for example, if you are at your summer cottage in June reading a financial paper about a gold drop in January or February, you will likely still get a good price.
1. 17.03.80 -9.43%
| Date | Price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 13.03.80 | 544.00 USD | -6.45% |
| 14.03.80 | 530.00 USD | -2.57% |
| 17.03.80 | 480.00 USD | -9.43% |
| 18.03.80 | 488.50 USD | 1.77% |
| 19.03.80 | 538.50 USD | 10.24% |
| 20.03.80 | 538.50 USD | 0.00% |
| 21.03.80 | 565.00 USD | 4.92% |
2. 15.04.13 -9.34%
| Date | Price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 12.04.13 | 1,501.40 USD | -4.06% |
| 15.04.13 | 1,361.10 USD | -9.34% |
| 16.04.13 | 1,387.40 USD | 1.93% |
| 17.04.13 | 1,382.70 USD | -0.34% |
| 18.04.13 | 1,392.50 USD | 0.71% |
| 19.04.13 | 1,395.60 USD | 0.22% |
3. 27.03.80 -8.13%
| Date | Price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 24.03.80 | 549.00 USD | -2.83% |
| 25.03.80 | 529.00 USD | -3.64% |
| 26.03.80 | 504.00 USD | -4.73% |
| 27.03.80 | 463.00 USD | -8.13% |
| 28.03.80 | 525.00 USD | 13.39% |
| 31.03.80 | 519.00 USD | -1.14% |
The problems in the US haven’t vanished in a week. This situation is on a completely different level compared to those from years ago. Remember the time context.
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Yesterday’s drop was quite rare, however—both in its magnitude and in how it came without warning. Personally, I’m leaning towards the idea that gold will now find a certain level and stay there. It could be 5,000, but also 6,000–8,000 USD.
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Isn’t Friday’s drop in precious metals and stocks explained by the fact that it was simply the last day of the month?
Gold and silver have been in overbought territory, and the sell buttons on all the bots were surely on a hair-trigger.
Some derivatives likely expired on the last day of the month, which triggered the selling. Then, the stop-losses of the bots that were already on edge were activated, and a sell-off began.
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This end of the month was indeed somewhat “feared” in advance, given the situation as it stood. It created a juicy opportunity for those who wanted to drive the price down.
While many sites show gold (futures price) down by over 8%, including the very last hours on Investing.com gives a drop of 11.39%. It is the largest daily drop ever. It falls into the 8-9 sigma range, meaning it is essentially a statistically impossible event, yet it happened anyway.
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The price bubble that has developed in the precious metal markets over the past few weeks began to burst last Friday.
Historically large drops in precious metal prices have been seen in recent days.
The price of gold fell by about twenty percent in a few days, and the price of silver by about forty percent.
Amidst the sudden drop, it is worth noting that even after this historic decline, precious metal prices remain in a clear uptrend.
Both silver and gold prices are still about ten percent higher than at the beginning of 2026, even after the sudden drop.
Have a nice Monday!
Looking at it from a TA perspective, we’ve only broken through the 20 MA on the daily level. We then saw a bounce upward from around the 50. RSI has returned to neutral levels.
Looking at the longer term, there is still plenty of room between the moving averages and the price chart. RSI is also through the roof, or well past it (monthly).
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Gold seems to have nearly recovered from Friday’s slump. Futures are already trading at around 5100 USD per ounce. This morning’s Iltalehti (IL) features a very interesting article on gold from an auctioneer’s perspective. It seems foreigners are continuing their purchases from Finland. Perhaps people abroad have a longer historical perspective on wealth and its preservation (?).
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Will the Metal Rally Continue?
In early 2026, we have seen wild movements in precious metal prices. Gold and silver prices have moved by as much as tens of percent in a single day.
About a week ago, metal prices saw a sharp downward move.
After that, the natural question is:
Is the rally over?
Or was it just a dip in a continuing uptrend?
Currently, gold looks the strongest among precious metals.
Its price has already risen above the 50 and 20-day moving averages, and has momentarily been above the 10-day moving average as well. This strongly looks like a continuing uptrend.
Silver’s price has returned above the 50-day moving average, but has remained below the 20-day moving average. This kind of price development is still difficult to assess.
Platinum and palladium look the weakest among the precious metals.
Their prices have not yet risen above their 50-day moving averages.
In their case, the price development currently looks like a break in the uptrend.
It seems, therefore, that gold has returned to the forefront of the precious metals market.
Its price development already points to a return to an uptrend.
For the smaller precious metals, the situation is more ambiguous.
However, they often follow gold with a slight delay.
Have a great Monday!
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