Yesterday’s drop was quite rare, however—both in its magnitude and in how it came without warning. Personally, I’m leaning towards the idea that gold will now find a certain level and stay there. It could be 5,000, but also 6,000–8,000 USD.
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Isn’t Friday’s drop in precious metals and stocks explained by the fact that it was simply the last day of the month?
Gold and silver have been in overbought territory, and the sell buttons on all the bots were surely on a hair-trigger.
Some derivatives likely expired on the last day of the month, which triggered the selling. Then, the stop-losses of the bots that were already on edge were activated, and a sell-off began.
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This end of the month was indeed somewhat “feared” in advance, given the situation as it stood. It created a juicy opportunity for those who wanted to drive the price down.
While many sites show gold (futures price) down by over 8%, including the very last hours on Investing.com gives a drop of 11.39%. It is the largest daily drop ever. It falls into the 8-9 sigma range, meaning it is essentially a statistically impossible event, yet it happened anyway.
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The price bubble that has developed in the precious metal markets over the past few weeks began to burst last Friday.
Historically large drops in precious metal prices have been seen in recent days.
The price of gold fell by about twenty percent in a few days, and the price of silver by about forty percent.
Amidst the sudden drop, it is worth noting that even after this historic decline, precious metal prices remain in a clear uptrend.
Both silver and gold prices are still about ten percent higher than at the beginning of 2026, even after the sudden drop.
Have a nice Monday!
Looking at it from a TA perspective, we’ve only broken through the 20 MA on the daily level. We then saw a bounce upward from around the 50. RSI has returned to neutral levels.
Looking at the longer term, there is still plenty of room between the moving averages and the price chart. RSI is also through the roof, or well past it (monthly).
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Gold seems to have nearly recovered from Friday’s slump. Futures are already trading at around 5100 USD per ounce. This morning’s Iltalehti (IL) features a very interesting article on gold from an auctioneer’s perspective. It seems foreigners are continuing their purchases from Finland. Perhaps people abroad have a longer historical perspective on wealth and its preservation (?).
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Will the Metal Rally Continue?
In early 2026, we have seen wild movements in precious metal prices. Gold and silver prices have moved by as much as tens of percent in a single day.
About a week ago, metal prices saw a sharp downward move.
After that, the natural question is:
Is the rally over?
Or was it just a dip in a continuing uptrend?
Currently, gold looks the strongest among precious metals.
Its price has already risen above the 50 and 20-day moving averages, and has momentarily been above the 10-day moving average as well. This strongly looks like a continuing uptrend.
Silver’s price has returned above the 50-day moving average, but has remained below the 20-day moving average. This kind of price development is still difficult to assess.
Platinum and palladium look the weakest among the precious metals.
Their prices have not yet risen above their 50-day moving averages.
In their case, the price development currently looks like a break in the uptrend.
It seems, therefore, that gold has returned to the forefront of the precious metals market.
Its price development already points to a return to an uptrend.
For the smaller precious metals, the situation is more ambiguous.
However, they often follow gold with a slight delay.
Have a great Monday!
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Here is an article from SalkunRakentaja about gold. 
When even the strong numbers of a giant like Nvidia are not enough to boost the stock price, it says something essential about the prevailing risk sentiment.
The same institutional investors who are unwinding their AI positions are shifting capital into precious metals and government bonds. The rotation was evident in both directions during the week.
EDIT: Produced in commercial partnership
Subheadings:
- Nvidia’s earnings report did not calm the markets
- Mining company margins at record levels
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For the long-term trend to reverse such that the price of gold measured in fiat currencies would no longer rise, it would require that no significant additional amounts of fiat currency are printed.
That is not on the horizon.
Sure, there will be dips—sometimes larger ones, but often smaller—but a trend reversal is a different matter.
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This is indeed the most significant factor in the rise of gold prices. One could say that de-dollarization is what’s driving the excess returns, with gold as the alternative because all other currencies are even more worthless. Geopolitical tensions and other factors do not have as much of an impact as the media suggests.
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For a while now, the direction of gold has been heading sharply towards ATH levels. The next clear dip will occur when the tensions subside a bit on the Iran front.
@Marianne_Palmu and @Verneri_Pulkkinen discussed gold in a video
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
01:06 Origins of gold
02:06 What is the appeal of gold?
15:10 Central banks
18:10 Gold price drivers
20:18 Supply
21:45 Price
Subscribe to the Inderes Femme channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@InderesFemme
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Gold prices continue to climb.
The price of gold, which has been in a strong uptrend, dipped slightly at the start of the Middle East conflict along with other asset classes.
In recent days, however, gold prices seem to have returned to an upward trajectory once again.
Silver prices also continue in an uptrend.
At the moment, however, gold’s price performance looks relatively stronger.
This is the natural order of things, with investment markets currently in a risk-averse mood.
Platinum prices can also still be considered to be in a slight uptrend, but its performance has been weaker than silver’s.
The price of platinum is currently below its 20-day moving average.
Among the major precious metals, palladium looks the weakest, as its price has fallen below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
Gold prices are therefore still on the rise. However, the relative weakness of the smaller precious metals suggests that the market is not currently experiencing speculative overheating similar to what was seen in January.
Together, these observations paint a picture of an upward-trending but calm precious metals market that offers clear upside potential with manageable risk.
Have a nice Wednesday!
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Gold has indeed remained quite stable, even as the Middle East is in flames and munitions are flying. What has received less attention, however, is that Dubai is one of the world’s largest trading hubs for physical gold (and there is likely plenty of storage activity there as well). A few days ago, reports began circulating in the media that gold is now being sold at a slight discount compared to other trading hubs. The Middle East has a long tradition of gold ownership, and if this war drags on, it could push people toward the selling side (?).
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I read somewhere that rising government bond yields are weighing on the price of gold. Wealth is shifting from precious metals into fixed-income securities. There is also some dollar strengthening behind it; the price of gold in euros has remained higher than the dollar price.
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It’s actually kind of funny that rising government bond yields lower the price of gold, because it leads to an increase in government deficits, which is the main reason for gold prices rising. It’ll probably end up as ”money printing” anyway, which leads to inflation. And gold prices will rise again.
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I’ve been wondering how large a share of gold ETFs is physically backed by gold? Some gold ETFs are synthetic. I wonder how large a proportion of ETFs are synthetic? Admittedly, with the price of gold on the rise, it makes you think about what kind of risk is associated with the role of synthetic ETFs in the price increase.
Another thing I’ve been considering is whether physically gold-backed ETFs are secured by some gold leasing agreement or some other arrangement instead of the gold actually being in a vault. There are certainly differences between various ETFs, but I suppose some level of risk needs to be factored in here as well.
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Gold futures collapsed, and all of this year’s gains are at risk of being wiped out, according to the article below.
The Middle East conflict, rising oil prices, a stronger dollar, and increased interest rates have significantly weakened even gold’s appeal. In addition to these factors, there are fears in the markets of central bank purchases slowing down, although JPMorgan believes that gold could still strengthen in the longer term.
‘I think there’s concern in the market that the combination of economic, energy, and FX pressures could trigger a sea change in central bank gold flows and buying behavior,’ said JPMorgan’s Shearer."
Longer term though, JPMorgan analysts are still bullish.
“The longer the energy disruption goes on and the more sizeable the inflationary and, importantly, growth impacts become, we still think the backdrop for gold will likely quickly flip materially bullish,” wrote the analysts last week.
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The title is quite amusing, suddenly inflation is bad for gold prices. I argue that central banks will buy this dip, and they are now scrutinizing technical analysis charts. Gold has generally performed well in a deflationary environment. What do you think money will flow into if the stock markets dip further and there’s a lot of cash on the sidelines? US bonds? I’d guess that won’t be as appealing as it has been, especially after recent news.
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As of this writing, gold has already dropped into negative territory year-to-date in dollar terms. In euros, it might still be at the beginning of the year’s figures (or slightly below). From its peak, it has now fallen almost 25%. It has been quite a rollercoaster, considering it was up by the same amount in January.
However, it’s important to remember that gold behaves as it pleases, especially during crisis situations (or rather, at their very beginning). For example, at the start of the financial crisis, the price of gold rose (I believe it was over 1000 USD in March 2008), but then it fell quite rapidly towards the end of the year to just over 700 USD. Then, when the crisis truly began in earnest in the spring of 2009, gold surprisingly showed its strength and climbed back towards the 1000 dollar mark.
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