Kinnunen's ramblings

In honor of Juha Kinnunen’s European Championship, Uncle Masse suggests that a new thread “Kinnunen’s ramblings” be started on the forum. This humble champion is heard so rarely. Perhaps such a new “worship” forum would inspire Juha to enlighten even the common folk a bit more often? Views, opinions, and stories about his own doings. Investment advice or recommendations would not need to be given. :man_superhero:

Is it a coincidence that yesterday another humble champion also celebrated their milestone birthday? The Masse-folk and at least Verphu probably know who…

Uncle Masse, FA, now there’s no longer a single reason to leave Inderes’ pages for financial matters

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Go post that in the Talenom thread, Juha lurks there sometimes.

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Kinnunen is also quite often chatting on Yle Puhe’s Pörssipäivä (Stock Exchange Day). Those are worth digging up from Areena. And of course, Juha also chats on Inderespodit. In addition to his expertise, his delivery is clear and easy to listen to.

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Experience and calmness emanate from Kinnunen’s actions. The track is quite amazing. Just take your hat off here…

Edit: Oh, and of course, CONGRATULATIONS!!

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Great, Juha!

Would it be possible to get a summary of the predictions that earned this award?

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You’re quite a character, Uncle Masse :smile: Thank you for these kind words.

Winning Starmine plaques always requires luck, because it’s practically impossible to achieve exceptionally high alpha with our operating model without movement in the monitored stocks. In this sense, I’ve had a favorable situation in recent years, with rocket stocks like Talenom and Aspocomp under observation. If you catch them and avoid mistakes at the same time, success can follow. Last year was exceptional in that I don’t remember a single real recommendation blunder. That’s rare, and apparently, it helps you do well even in Europe. In the future, I will make mistakes again; it’s part of the game. However, I am confident that there will be more successes than blunders.

Investing is a long-term endeavor, just like an analyst’s work. My greatest respect goes to those colleagues who consistently create added value year after year and thus perform quite steadily in these rankings. I had a peak year now, but I am prouder of the fact that I have been able to create value for investors relatively systematically for a long time. When you look at our team on the Starmine lists, you’ll relatively regularly find Sauli, Mikael, in my opinion, the underestimated star Antti Viljakainen, and especially in recent years, Petri Kajaani, who also had an excellent last year. Others have also done great, and awards are found across a wide front, so we’re doing something right here at Inderes.

However, one should not blindly follow my views or anyone else’s. It’s more important to try to create an investment style and overall picture that suits you, for which you should gather information from as many quality sources as possible. I constantly question myself, listen to others’ views (preferably opposing ones), and then try to create as objective an overall picture as possible. If you spend too long mulling things over in your own head, you’ll probably start to think you understand everything. But pride prevents learning, and if you don’t constantly learn more in this job, you’ll fall behind. Then the recommendations won’t hit, the ramblings won’t interest anyone, and Uncle Masse will put you on the black list :cold_face:

This analyst job is often such that successes are forgotten, but mistakes are remembered forever. In history, the majority of “feedback” has also been related precisely to the latter, and sometimes crap has been showered on me undeservedly. At such times, it has been really important that some impartial party looks at how things actually went. In that, Starmine has been excellent. I am grateful that nowadays a community has formed around Inderes, from which I receive not only deserved criticism but also praise and positive feedback. A big thank you for that :ok_hand:

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Many thanks to the masses-Vatican. The masses’ common-folk congregation is very pleased that Cardinal Kinnunen had time to respond here in the far north - far from the mainstream masses. :pray::pray::pray:

Uncle Masse, as obliged by his FA title, tries his best to keep his stubborn congregation on the straight and narrow path of the masses. Sometimes it does take a toll on the old man, but then Bishop Vilen, and sometimes even the Pope himself, Father-Mikael, have come to the rescue.

Now, if the esteemed Cardinal could sometimes even join this important task of public education, Uncle Masse would get a moment of peace for his soul and for the masses of the congregation.

Uncle Masse, FA, guardian of the common-folk’s masses:euro::euro::euro:

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Latest EM winner’s views on the market:

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The title of this thread created by Masse, ‘Kinnusen jorinat’, is now officially also the title of the blog =-): Kinnusen jorinat: Kuplien dynamiikka - Inderes

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Juma! I wouldn’t have believed it. Juha has been the most stubborn Inden aristocrat to resist falling into the Masse bubble, and now he’s writing about a stock market bubble inspired by the Masse bubble in his “Kinnunen’s Ramblings” blog series. YES!

Uncle Masse, FA, Kinnunen fan for years :cowboy_hat_face: :cowboy_hat_face: :cowboy_hat_face:

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This tells of Masse’s strength: six months were spent thinking of something better, but nothing was found :sweat_smile:

Well, it didn’t quite go like that, but thanks for the thought - that’s a perfectly suitable “branding” for me!

And indeed, this is meant to be a regularly irregular blog series. So, more to come when I have time to write! :face_with_monocle:

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Awesome! In both text and audio discussions, Kinnunen is truly among the top analysts and even the country’s renowned economic experts. It’s a pleasure to read and listen to such knowledgeable and clearly presented discourse.

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You should also go back to the podcast booth. The content you produce is of very high quality and exudes expertise and academic rigor. :+1:t2:

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Thanks @keso25 and @Mauri :pray: Podikop again soon :+1:

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A charismatic story for the everyman. I’m happy to share these tales with my offspring. From between the lines and the timing of the story, one cannot avoid the hint that perhaps the “dead cat bounce” has now also been taken out of the analyst’s toolbox.

Interesting article. Stock investing often talks about “stocks” in the plural being expensive, or an index being expensive. I’ve been thinking about the relationship of these indices to individual companies. If you look at, for example, the companies in the S&P 500 index, many of them are expensive relative to their fundamentals, and from this, it is concluded that the S&P 500 index is expensive. The economy is strong. Consumer confidence and investor sentiment are high. So, we can expect the situation to turn around at some point. What do you think about fundamental investing in such a market situation? For example, a company whose market value is less than the company’s cumulative earnings over the last 10 years, and the company’s current situation is otherwise on a stable footing. Should the company be considered a buy based on these fundamentals, or should one refrain from buying because sentiment is high and the stock could fall even lower in a crisis? So, does the index level matter at all?

The answer to the question depends on whether the investor wants to take a market view. Some don’t care about it at all, some are strictly tied to the market, and there are, of course, many in-between. If a market view can clearly create added value, that’s good, but generally, I don’t recommend big changes based on a market view.

I do pay attention to overall market valuations, but I can easily invest in a stock that I consider cheap and has a good risk-adjusted return expectation in practically any market situation. Usually, however, this challenge is solved by there being fewer attractive cases when markets are generally high. When you stick to your own return requirements, the number of potential investment targets decreases, and at the same time, you are more likely to find “overpriced” stocks in your own portfolio that you can lighten. When you also limit risk so that the weight of a single stock does not become ridiculously large, this has at least historically worked well. More cash accumulates in the portfolio when the overall market is challenging to price, and on the other hand, cash moves when attractive opportunities arise.

We have applied the same simple idea in the model portfolio as well. No rushing due to the market, but rather opportunistically according to the opportunities offered by the market.

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There’s wisdom in this. May I ask, what are your return requirements and maximum weight per company in your own plan? :slight_smile:

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9% for the whole portfolio. Quite often I’ve done better because the stock weighting is quite drastic now. Diversifying is hard because I once bought Neste and haven’t brought myself to sell it.

Exactly! Uncle came up with the chain’s name in under a minute, while Inderes’ core group couldn’t come up with anything better in six months :slight_smile:

Some are born to create addictive bubbles, into which other happy people drift unknowingly… Others are born to create wealth.

The question is: Does the powerful duo of Masse plus Kinnunen need anyone or anything else? Answer: Of course they do, but mostly just an admiring audience :joy:

Uncle Masse, FA, I apologize if such success occasionally creates a small, unnamed bubble in an old man’s head too :slight_smile:

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