Kinnunen's ramblings

In Sotkamo?

A video and matches to help? You can ask Mikael to borrow some matches, you know, the ones that weren’t already burned during the filming of the “Nokia Cash” sketch :laughing: (A working concept, and once it’s made familiar, you can start selling Inderes matches!)

You could use Apetit and NoHo as examples.

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Nooo, not everyone has burned their cash registers like Nokia, so maybe no matches are used :slight_smile: In this topic, there seem to be a bit too many moving “parts and boxes” for a similar demonstration, but let’s see if we can come up with something else after the holidays! That was a great video @Mikael_Rautanen and Co :+1:

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I’ll probably move towards Sotkamo next week :blue_car:

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Maybe you could make your own version of Fortum/Uniper’s balance sheet using Afrikan tähti (The Star of Africa) as a guide. Will you find a diamond, a blank ticket, or a robber under the tiles? :wink:

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The educational text and case description certainly illustrated the point well. Do you, @Juha_Kinnunen or @Sauli_Vilen, have any books to recommend for studying balance sheets and accounting?

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If you’re looking for something in Finnish, I have Ilari Salmi’s Mitä tilinpäätös kertoo? (What Does the Financial Statement Tell?) on my shelf, which I think is quite a good basic work.

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Thanks! I once studied the basics from textbooks, and unfortunately I no longer remember the names of those books :older_man: And they probably weren’t particularly glamorous, although accounting seems to be mostly a bit dry. @Sauli_Vilen has probably read these in English, so that probably won’t help :man_shrugging:

I would look at what books universities currently use in accounting and financial management courses, and choose the best one based on comments. On the other hand, these days you can probably find a lot of quality material online for free, and by thinking for yourself and googling when necessary, you could get a good result.

The most important thing is not to know all the paragraphs, but to understand the logic and be able to interpret the calculations :+1:

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I’m on the same page as @Juha_Kinnunen. Unlike investment literature in general, I haven’t come across any exceptionally good books on balance sheet analysis. This is probably because balance sheet analysis is ultimately a relatively simple matter, and it’s hard to find any mind-blowing perspectives on it. I would start with basic works, e.g., Juha-Pekka Kallunki’s “tilinpäätösanalyysi” (financial statement analysis) or, from my own school library, Bodie, Kane & Marcus’s “financial statement analysis”.

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Hats off, boys. Unbelievable performance!

Big congratulations to @Juha_Kinnunen and all Inderes people!

https://twitter.com/mikaelrautanen/status/1308076305771122688?s=21

https://twitter.com/mikaelrautanen/status/1308073847590137856?s=21

Yes, it is possible for us common folk to achieve excess returns with the help of Inderes analyses :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

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Investing based on Inderes’ analyses is like having cheat codes on in this game. :smiley:

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Thanks @Aston_Livingstone :pray: The last few years have gone wonderfully well!

This year, however, corona came and shuffled the deck, and I made some mistakes. Well, all in all, it went reasonably well, and hopefully I learned something from it again!

I should also become a bit more active in this thread again. I’ve been talking a lot on the podcast front, but otherwise I haven’t really had time to write. I need to pull myself together again in other areas too :face_with_monocle:

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Thoughts of the day go here in the designated thread!

Comments and suggestions for the “portfolio” are welcome, i.e., what top companies do you own yourself?

Unfortunately, I cannot promise any personal evaluations of (potential) suggestions, nor do I promise to open the portfolio, at least not actively. I’m worried it would spoil the fun of this activity, which is meant to be relatively light-hearted. However, we can periodically review how this “strategy” has developed if there’s interest!

Happy autumn holiday to all who have one! I’ll be away for a week in the meantime :pray:

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US tech stocks, the big and really big ones :slight_smile:

Of course, they might be taking a small breather right now…

Uncle Masse, FA, OMXH-bound chicken :disappointed: :disappointed: :disappointed:

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Great post!

Allow me to suggest some companies for the category you’re looking for:

Microsoft
Tencent
Alibaba
Paradox Interactive

And of course, Berkshire Hathaway, which has profiled itself as the world’s largest tech investment company in recent years…

image

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Yay! Nice to hear from you after a long time, even if it’s just on paper. But still, reading it, I can almost hear Juha’s calm articulation. :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes: #nohomo :victory_hand:

To the point. Good points and highlights. Especially about buying quality for a long-term portfolio and sitting on your hands, meaning no selling.

Signed, someone who bought MasterCard in 2015 (sold half this year, shouldn’t have). Apple in 2018 in a dip, a couple of batches under $150. Sold about half at 220 and half of the rest at 330… Yep… Over +200% on the remaining profit line. Now, I bought a small batch of Berkshire this summer. These leftovers won’t be sold…! :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes: Thanks for the good observation regarding these companies, where it’s impossible to be on top of the ball, and also a truly enjoyable vacation to you! :oncoming_fist:

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I don’t think you’ll need that much luck :slight_smile:

My thoughts are very similar. I also think that in the future, “winner takes it all” will only become more pronounced.

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Excellent write-up! I agree that Finnish investors should own the best and highest-quality compounders, especially from the USA. I’ve only just started building this position, and currently have Facebook, Apple, Salesforce (worth looking into), and Alibaba (a Chinese one). Strong compounders with high returns on equity that I follow include Mastercard and Lululemon. Both just seem too expensive for me to acquire :upside_down_face:

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Here are a few suggestions for an international portfolio:

Ambu
Danish company Ambu is the world’s leading manufacturer of single-use endoscopes. The market share for single-use endoscopes is currently in the range of 1-3%, but it is expected to multiply many times over in the 2020s. This holds immense growth potential for the next ten years.
Here is the company’s roadshow presentation:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjoq8fO36fsAhVYBhAIHSGuCRkQFjABegQIBhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ambu.com%2FAdmin%2FPublic%2FDWSDownload.aspx%3FFile%3D%252FFiles%252FFiles%252FAmbu%252FFinancial_Calendar%252F2020%252FAmbu-Presentation-Goldman-Sachs-European-Medtech-Conference_-Sep-9-10-2020.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3ewQDuN5f6vYWRyf8y4IGo

Veoneer
Another suggestion is the Swedish-American company Veoneer, which specializes in automotive safety technology. The case is very similar to SmartEye, but the company is much more established and larger in scale. Investors include Cevian, among others.

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I’ve had similar thoughts, but back in the day, I ended up buying SP500 index for my Finnish portfolio for diversification (Nasdaq would have been better in hindsight, of course :grimacing:, but its share of the portfolio is still under 5%), which I’ve been buying every month up to this day. Taiwan Semiconductor and Facebook as “picks”.

I’d also add, as an advertisement, that such monthly saving into an index brings calmness and removes the forced need to do something. You’re putting more money into the game every month and thus are always in the game, no matter what happens in the markets. Sometimes I think about selling and putting it into individual stocks, especially if my own companies have soared. And if a buying opportunity arises, then I might liquidate some index holdings.

I rarely touch my core investments; usually, I just add more. I open new positions very cautiously. Building a significant position also gets harder year by year as core investments grow year by year with compound interest. The monthly free cash flow is quite small, though, from which to push more money into the portfolio. At the same time, I keep a sufficient cash reserve for real estate investments.

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