Kesla: The most promising (small) company on the stock market?

I haven’t been following Kesla, but here is an earnings preview.

I ended up browsing through this mainly because Kesla decided on Feb 21st that tomorrow’s (Feb 22nd) earnings release isn’t ready after all. Instead, it will be published a month later on March 21st! Yet the year ended 51 days ago…
A month’s delay — can it portend anything but bad news? Or what could be the issue?

The stock’s pricing is not attractive based on our current forecasts

Kesla’s expected total return is currently below the required rate of return. Additionally, based on 2023 EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA multiples, the stock is valued above the peer median. The valuation only becomes more attractive with 2024 multiples, and even then, only slightly. Generating justified upside in the near term would require a clear upward revision of our forecasts.

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Often, postponing an interim report has been due to completed acquisitions and related integrations, or an upcoming share issue. Of course, it could also be something else negative. Kesla had net debt of 17 MEUR in H1, an EBIT loss of -1.1 MEUR during Q1–Q3, and cash flow from operations for the same period was -5 MEUR. If I had to guess, I’d say a share issue is knocking at the door. Kesla is a family-owned company with two share classes through which the owning family maintains control, so I don’t believe in a possible acquisition.

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Message merged into thread: Inderes Coffee Room (Part 6)

So, according to the new CEO, postponing the release by a month just a day before the scheduled date was purely technical and without drama.
Well, it smells a bit fishy to me, but I guess we have to believe it when it’s coming directly from the CEO.

Yesterday, Kesla announced it is postponing the publication of its 2022 financial statement release by a month. According to the company, there is no drama involved; it is merely a technical arrangement.

No drama in the postponement

Yesterday, Kesla announced it is postponing the publication of its 2022 financial statement release by as much as a month, from today to March 21st, because “the completion of the financial statements has been delayed.” We discussed the topic yesterday with CEO Marko Pekkola. Pekkola said that the delay is due to certain checks and also referred to both his own recent appointment and the change of Kesla’s auditor. According to Pekkola, the move is purely technical and involves no drama. Pekkola stated that the Q1 business review will be published as originally scheduled on April 26th. There will now be just over a month between the publication of the Q4 report and the Q1 report, which Pekkola also lamented. We aren’t drawing any major conclusions from the postponement ourselves; we are simply updating the calendar entry.

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Apparently, so much hydraulics etc. have already been manufactured in Ilomantsi in advance, and production there is about 2 months ahead of other factories. The furloughs are being implemented to clear out some of the inventory etc.

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Eki has updated the new Kesla company report.

Kesla’s Q4 report was at least a slight disappointment. Order intake fell short of our forecast and earnings performance was weak.

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Today, Kesla published a positive profit warning and simultaneously released its business review.

https://www.inderes.fi/fi/tiedotteet/positiivinen-tulosvaroitus-kesla-oyjn-tilikauden-2023-liiketulos-kasvaa-selvasti-vuodesta

https://www.inderes.fi/fi/tiedotteet/kesla-oyjn-liiketoimintakatsaus-11-3132023

  • Revenue grew by 72.5% and was EUR 16.4 million (9.5).
  • Operating profit increased by EUR 1.2 million and was EUR 602 thousand (-596). The operating profit for the comparison period was burdened by a EUR 280 thousand impairment provision related to Russian operations.
  • Cash flow from operating activities turned positive and was EUR 1,722 thousand (-3,398).
  • Earnings per share increased and were EUR 0.13 (-0.16) for both A and B shares.
  • Orders received remained at the comparison period’s level and were EUR 14.5 million (14.9).
  • The order book remained at the comparison period’s level and was EUR 33.8 million (33.9).
  • During the first quarter, Kesla concluded change negotiations regarding the Ilomantsi facility. The company also renegotiated a EUR 2 million maturing bullet loan and a EUR 3.0 million group account limit.

Key Figures

EUR thousand, unless otherwise stated 1−3/2023 1−3/2022 Change, % 1−12/2022
Orders received 14,562 14,854 -2.0 % 55,270
Order book 33,822 33,943 -0.4 % 37,038
Revenue 16,365 *9,486 72.5 % 45,863
Operating profit 602 -596 n/a -1,319
Operating profit, % 3.7 % -6.3 % n/a -2.9 %
Total comprehensive income for the period 430 -535 n/a -1,181
Earnings per share, EUR ** 0.13 -0.16 179.4 % -0.35
Return on investment (ROI), % 8.4 % -9.3 % n/a -4.9 %
Return on equity (ROE), % 13.8 % -15.8 % n/a -8.9 %
Cash flow from operating activities 1,722 -3,398 n/a -5,377
Gross investments 65 193 -66.3 % 3,811
Net interest-bearing debt 14,823 13,500 9.8 % 16,478
Net gearing ratio, % 116.5 % 104.4 % n/a 134.0 %
Equity ratio, % 34.6 % 35.1 % n/a 32.0 %
Average number of personnel 253 249 1.6 % 246

(*) Includes EUR 1.0 million in Russian trade.
(**) Both basic and diluted earnings per share for both A and B shares.

Revised guidance for 2023

Kesla estimates that its 2023 revenue will grow and its operating result will grow clearly from the previous year.

Previous guidance: Kesla estimates that its 2023 revenue and operating profit will grow from the previous year.

(*) In its guidance, the company has transitioned to using the term ‘operating result’ (liiketulos) instead of ‘operating profit’ (liikevoitto).

CEO Marko Pekkola:

"After a challenging financial year 2022, we succeeded in the first quarter in growing revenue to EUR 16.4 million, which is 74.25% more than in the comparison period (9.5). The growth in revenue was driven by the clearing of delivery backlogs, which was achieved through the development of production processes and improved component availability.

The key to Kesla’s financial development in 2023 continues to be the removal of bottlenecks in production chains and restoring the production rhythm to a normal level. Improved delivery capacity combined with intensified management of fixed costs and working capital improved business profitability and cash flow. The operating result improved clearly from the comparison period, being EUR 602 thousand (-596), and correspondingly, the cash flow was EUR 1,722 thousand (-3,398).

Our focus areas in 2023 are particularly the improvement of profitability and bringing net gearing to the target level, towards which we have already done good work in the first quarter. We have succeeded in turning the result positive, and net gearing has decreased during the first quarter from 134.0% to 116.5% (104.4). The amount of net debt decreased by EUR 1.7 million in the first quarter.

Order flow has remained strong throughout the first quarter. The value of orders received remained nearly at the level of the comparison period, being EUR 14.6 million (14.9). The share of exports grew and was 62.4% (60.9%). Demand was particularly strong for truck and industrial cranes. At the end of the quarter, the order book was at the comparison period’s level at EUR 33.8 million (33.9).

During the first quarter, together with our personnel and stakeholders, we have managed to correct the direction of the business and we continue that work to meet our customers’ expectations.

We have begun a strategy update. We will publish the targets in accordance with the new strategy during the third quarter."

Inderes’ advance expectations:

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That’s the way! :fire: :sunglasses:

Eki’s comments on the results can be found below.

(Thanks again @Contrafun for the information you gathered.)

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Kesla is indeed in a very interesting situation after the positive profit warning and is very cheap at absolute multiples. Additionally, the company’s high fixed costs combined with high indebtedness enable massive leverage for the share price, provided that business volumes can be grown from current levels.


From an investor’s point of view, however, it is difficult to say whether Kesla will ever be assigned higher valuation multiples than now. The business seems to be close to its full potential, and without real business growth, that attractive operational leverage cannot be properly utilized. Definitely a company worth following, though.

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@Pohjolan_Eka, a comprehensive report has been released on this company of ours - shall we have a reading session? :slight_smile:

Comprehensive reports are available for everyone to read, so go ahead and take a look.

Despite the slowdown in growth, Kesla’s market remains reasonable. The company’s improving earnings performance is supported by an increasing capacity utilization rate, other operational leverage, and significant cost savings brought by the NOSTE automation project.

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What’s really sexy about this stock is that, due to high leverage and cost levels, there’s massive leverage for the share price if revenue could somehow be increased properly. The challenge is that Kesla may well be at its limit as a company in terms of revenue, and after 2024, it’s hard to see where growth will come from, as there is only a finite amount of wood growing in the world.

I’m a bit torn on whether this is an absolutely fantastic top investment or a complete value trap. Eki’s expectations have been set unnaturally low, though, and there remains the possibility that the rogue state to the east might lose the war, allowing sales to resume there after next year. So, in principle, the share price could easily take another +50% at least without starting to feel shaky.

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Here is a morning note on Kesla as well. :slight_smile:

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@Tomi_Valkeajarvi and @Erkki_Vesola talked about my and Eka’s company.

Interesting stuff, worth a listen. :slight_smile:

Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:15 Company business in a nutshell
02:04 Competitive landscape
03:38 Largest customers
04:46 Key risks
06:35 Cornerstones of the current strategy
08:27 Financial targets
10:29 Outlook
12:39 Valuation

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Here are Eki’s preview comments as Kesla releases its Q2 report on Wednesday. :slight_smile:

Kesla will release its Q2 report on Wednesday, August 16 at 9:00 AM. A significant reduction in supply chain issues as well as volume growth support profitability. The end-customer market outlook for the rest of the year is fairly stable and we expect the company to reiterate its earlier 2023 guidance. The stock’s valuation remains attractive.

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Me and @Pohjolan_Eka also did great in Q2. Here are Eki’s comments on Kesla’s Q2. :slight_smile:

Kesla’s Q2 report was strong, although the order intake fell short of our expectations. Both revenue and, above all, the earnings development were positive surprises. The 2023 guidance remained unchanged. Strong profitability should provide a boost to the share price today.

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Kesla’s Q2 report was strong, even though the order intake fell short of our expectations. Market outlooks are fairly stable, but Kesla can improve its position through its new products and customers.

Quoted from the report:
. Positive share price drivers include 1) growth enabled by a still-satisfactory market, supported by new products and customers, more efficient utilization of the current distribution network, and new distributors; 2) the realization of the clear earnings growth guided for 2023; 3) the new strategy and related financial targets to be announced in Q3’23; and 4) the profitability leap enabled by the NOSTE project

P.S. Eki doesn’t seem to sleep much, given these come out morning and night. :smiley:

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Eki’s morning comments on Kesla. :slight_smile:

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Eki gave his comments on @Pohjolan_Eka’s and my company, i.e., Kesla. :cowboy_hat_face:

Yesterday, Kesla announced its new strategy for 2024–2028. It didn’t include completely new initiatives, but the update to growth and profitability targets, in particular, was positive. In addition, the seeking of partnerships was emphasized, and we focus on these aspects in our comment. Our positive view of the company and the share remains unchanged.

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The day before yesterday: a new strategy.

Today: the CEO is leaving at the turn of the year. That was a short notice period.

Wasn’t much of a long-term commitment to the new strategy or the new growth and profitability targets…

KESLA OYJ INSIDE INFORMATION 29 Sep 2023 at 12:00

Kesla Oyj’s CEO Marko Pekkola has today resigned from his position to move to new challenges outside the company. Pekkola will continue in his current position until the end of his notice period [31 Dec 2023].

“I want to thank Marko for his contribution to developing Kesla. Under his leadership, we announced our strategy for the years 2024–2028 and updated our long-term financial targets. In the new strategy period, we aim for growth in net sales and profitability,” says Vesa Tuomi, Chairman of Kesla’s Board of Directors.

Kesla’s Board of Directors has initiated the process to find a new CEO.

KESLA OYJ
Board of Directors

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A one-year stint. Seems like they really had a falling out :sweat_smile:

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