It’s been quiet here since the results. Here are our thoughts on Q4 and the 2026 guidance. The outlook seems relatively positive, especially looking toward 2027. For this reason, we maintained a positive view, even though the valuation multiples for the current year are quite tight.
Highlights:
- The net impact of the grocery trade (PT-kauppa) store network renewal should be neutral in 2026 and positive in 2027. In 2025, the network still had a negative impact on market shares. In other words, the price investment program yielded significant results, especially in Citymarkets.
- The price investment program continues, and retailers are committed to it, in typical Kesko fashion.
- There are no clear signs of improvement in the building and technical trade (RT-kauppa) market yet, but internal price competition within the industry seems to have subsided. Competitors have apparently realized that the business must also generate a profit in the long run, which has put pressure on price increases. Kesko generates the majority of the market’s profit in technical wholesale in Finland.
- In the car trade, the market is expected to remain weak, but the scrapping incentive may provide some support for the development of the new car market. K-Auto’s growth is therefore based on the company’s own strong performance.