Since that first rights issue news, just under 90 million shares have been traded on the exchange, which is about 75% of the total share capital. This suggests that a fairly large portion of those who do not want to or cannot participate in the offering have already sold their shares or part of them.
It has been clear from the start that one must inject more money at 44 SEK / share to ensure dilution is limited only to the 20% directed issue, so significant dilution has been known for a while. Of course, I was also a bit surprised that they went that low. I guessed a price of 11 SEK, meaning 4 subscription rights for every share.
The big players have already vacuumed up a large part of the entire share capital (MS and GS alone account for about 20% combined) and they would hardly be buying if they didn’t intend to participate in the offering.
Of course, some subscription rights will remain floating from those who haven’t monitored their portfolios or have just been left staring at the downward slide—mainly retail investors (“tuularit”)—but I would bet that these will also be vacuumed up quite efficiently by big money and wealthier investors.
My own guess is that the offering will be fully subscribed, and there will be nothing left for the guarantors to redeem.