I haven’t looked that much deeper under the surface, but I’ve tried to learn something about the company nonetheless. ![]()
Money flows into the company through several different routes: marketplace, fintech services, credit, advertising, logistics, etc. So it resembles Amazon very much, except that the market is Latin America. Amazon has Prime, and Meli also has its own loyalty program, Meli+. On Meli’s site, there were (at the beginning of '24) nearly 50,000 active stores. We are talking about a very significant platform.
The greatest threat, and at the same time potential, is its geographical distribution: business is conducted in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia. There is still room for growth as the digitalization of these countries develops and commerce moves online. In my understanding, the risks are related to currencies as well as political decision-making.
In my opinion, the valuation is quite steep; if the '24 forecasts are met, P/E 57x, EV/EBIT 37x, EV/FCF 37x.
. Of course, this includes the expected +40% revenue growth. Annual growth of at least 20% is expected until 2026, so those multiples will indeed melt away…
All in all, an interesting company; I should probably bother to take a closer look at some point and write in Meli’s thread.