Inderes Coffee Room (Part 4)

This thread is a continuation of the comment: Inderesin kahvihuone (Osa 3) - #10413 käyttäjältä Doombird - Sijoittaminen - Inderes forum.

Previous threads:

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Immo and I have enough miles behind us that we dare to share our opinions.
The experiences and thrills brought by travel should definitely be utilized :+1: When you have many years left, you also have time to revisit memories often.
On the other hand, since we ourselves have hoarded almost all our savings and invested them since we were juniors, we haven’t done what is now being advised :pensive_face:
Of course, thanks to hobbies and after the children grew up, we’ve traveled quite a bit, but still, we could have traveled more when we were younger.
On the other side of the coin, with compound interest, I understand it’s something to ponder.

Would it be possible to work enough extra hours in a year to cover the cost of the trip? And then you would also get the saving and investing done.

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Completely agree with the previous comments, travel often leaves memories more valuable than money. Now I’d like to buy my first luxury watch, but a voice in the back of my head says to put that €4k into the stock market instead. Well, let’s see whether reason or emotion wins this battle :joy:

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A kind of defensive victory has been achieved in recent months, with 3-month returns hovering around -3%. The main reason for this is that I have diversified my portfolio more than before, across multiple sectors and a wider range between value and growth. Also, adjusting the risk level by managing the cash allocation has stabilized the situation.

Although things have gone quite well in the short term, the further my investing career has progressed, the better I have understood my limited abilities as an investor. The solution at this point would, of course, be index investing, but the flaw in the OST (Investment Savings Account) of lacking an index fund option prevents that. Finland should follow its western neighbor in this matter regarding legislation.

For tax-technical reasons, it is absolutely illogical to empty the OST at this stage and transfer funds to an AOT (Securities Account).

But to the point… I read the forum a lot and have picked up valuable ideas from here, and certainly, because of the bears and bear cubs, I have avoided making some bad investments, thanks for that :slightly_smiling_face:.

However, one thought picked up from the forum or books (I don’t remember) has particularly stuck in my mind: what competitive advantage do I have as an investor that allows me to beat the index? I’ve been pondering this and will share some thoughts here.

-I am definitely weak at number crunching; I don’t gain an advantage by calculating figures with inadequate skills, and I lack the motivation to study. No advantage.

-Secondly, my language skills are not sufficient to understand the annual reports and interim reports of foreign companies deeply enough, or at least it would take too much time. No advantage.

-My understanding of macroeconomic changes and their impact on stock markets is insufficient, even though the topic is interesting. No advantage.

-My time and energy are also insufficient to research company-related news in real time, although I do follow actively with a delay. No advantage.

-I like to follow technical analysis when others open charts, but I don’t base my trading on it much. I have used RSI somewhat, and it affects the timing of my purchases and the adjustment of cash allocation.

-I have developed in terms of long-term perspective and can take that into account already in the stock picking phase, but there is still room for improvement; no advantage at the moment, but perhaps in the future.

Where I could be on par or even gain a small competitive advantage…

-I have developed a lot in managing emotions as an investor when I recall the early days’ impulsiveness :partying_face: :cold_face: :face_vomiting:.

-I critically consider good and bad investment decisions. Some lessons have stuck in my mind from them.

-Although I am poor at number crunching, I understand the numbers reasonably well when they are already laid out, and I think I can relate the numbers quite well to other things to assess a company’s capability. I may not gain an advantage, but I am certainly not as badly off as a pure number cruncher.

-I don’t have experience with long bear markets or a thorough stock market crash, but I have mentally prepared myself for it to happen sooner or later, and I will get through it without panicking, preferably while increasing my stock allocation.

-I don’t try to time the market, but I adjust the stock allocation as consistently as possible to manage the risk level.

-I have always been skeptical by nature, and in investing, that has saved me from a bad investment more often than it has cost me a good investment opportunity. Still, I subscribe to the assertion that even a good investor only makes more informed guesses.

-I read and listen to a fair amount of investment-related content, and I have wondered if a critical reader could gain an advantage from Inderes’ sometimes very high-quality forum compared to others. I answer myself that it is possible, especially concerning Finnish small-cap companies. By this, I naturally don’t mean following blindly, but seeking information and perspectives. The critical approach in this matter cannot be overemphasized.

Dear forum members, if the topic interests you, I would love to hear your views on how you plan to beat the markets? Self-praise is allowed and even encouraged.

My defenses against my reflections are down, so merciless criticism is also allowed :slightly_smiling_face:.

Edit: Corrected the return percentage after opening Nordnet.

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Been there, done that.

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I received a text message from Matkahuolto that Inderes had sent me a package to R-Kioski. :open_mouth: I hurried with a wide smile to pick up the package from R-Kioski, thinking I’d get a shirt, as my shirt size had been inquired about earlier. Eight minutes after receiving the text message, I was in front of one R-Kioski until I realized it was the wrong one… just typical Recruit’s (Alokas) messing up. So from there, I headed to the correct R-Kioski and got my package. :smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

At home, I opened the package and there were three shirts (long-sleeved, short-sleeved, and a polo shirt), but in addition to that, there was a cap, the famous gel, and other nice little things. :heart_eyes: There was also a heartwarming message, oh my. I was so excited when I went to pick up the package, and now I’m actually feeling even better after opening it.


I’m at least as happy about this as I was when I got a Plasto truck in the 80s (picture below). Some people surely sometimes laugh good-heartedly when I get very excited about small things, but this was a big and nice thing for me. I am really happy and proud of the gift and message I received. :slight_smile:

I still remember the moment I got that handsome truck, but I will also remember this package I received today. A really nice gesture from Inderes, thank you very much! :smiling_face_with_three_hearts: :blush: :hugs:

Have a nice rest of your Saturday evening everyone! :slightly_smiling_face:

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Inderes could definitely send me some fan merchandise, they would be in heavy daily use and would get a lot of visibility :smiley:

EDIT: And this package, @Sijoittaja-alokas, is completely deserved for you!

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Plaston IPO confirmed?

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This would be the next hit business for Inderes! An e-commerce platform through which different listed companies can sell their fan products to investors :grimacing:

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There would be enough subscribers for this. I’ll buy a few right away.

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I clearly remember how, in the early days of this new forum software, Masse used ecclesiastical (kirkkoverbaliikka) language; even Father Mikael was there…

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At this rate, if the courses drop, the monastery will soon be crowded :smiley:

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In addition to everything else good, Valamo also has delicious production. You can even buy a whole barrel from there, from which you can check the taste from time to time.

Valamo Beverages | Monastery distillery whiskey, gin & absinthe | Valamo Beverages

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I have Valamo Tenu gin on my shelf. Really good stuff.

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I’ve also “tenutted” one bottle of Tenu with tonic. A perfectly functional gin.

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I conducted a completely unscientific, yet entirely unbiased, screening of the finTwit (Financial Twitter) bull/bear ratio. The oil and shipping sector (to which I also belong) has its own peculiar crowd that always anticipates the end of the world and profits from it, so they were excluded from the analysis. However, across all other sectors, from crypto to tech, from war to weak European banks, through the financial sector and housing bubbles, the ratio was clear. The bulls went extinct this week. The last ones during last night as the final bloody candles were drawn.

This can only mean one thing: we’re going up next week.

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Lately, I feel that a serious defeatist mood has started to appear on the forum, as stock prices have broadly come down. In the Soviet Union, such defeatists would have already been shot, but in our liberal democracy, the expression of all sorts of wrong opinions is also allowed, so I guess there’s nothing to do but wait for prices to start rising and the mood to turn back to euphoria. :cowboy_hat_face:

Listen! You too surely had a grand plan to make a lot of money when prices were rising. It’s easy to be an investment genius when every investment makes money and all stock prices always reach new highs. Well, now you’ve been punched in the face and the result is an unpleasantly bloody nose. Hopefully, you were smart enough to develop a plan in advance on how to act when stock prices turn downwards and the investment environment becomes significantly more hostile, because now is a good time to start implementing that plan. BTFD, by the way, is not a strategy, but a mechanical way to capitalize on temporary irrational market panics in an uptrending market. If the uptrend breaks, BTFD will naturally no longer work.

If, for some reason, your bear market strategy has been left in another coat pocket, now would be a good time to take a time-out and rethink the entire investment business from scratch. However, don’t give in to unnecessary emotionality and let haste cause sudden moves, because now more than ever, a steady hand and a calm mind are needed, one that executes carefully considered plays coldly and rationally. Hasty actions will only worsen the situation!

One more thing: If your portfolio is in the red for this year, you have already lost that money. That money has disappeared like a Bedouin into the Sahara, and it will never come back to your portfolio again unless you succeed in your investments. So, there’s no point in being anchored to the situation that prevailed at the turn of the year, but rather to look at the situation from today onwards and think about where future profits will come from. Here we are now; hopefully, we’ll get through this :sunglasses:

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My portfolio is dropping, but I’m not entirely in a losing mood yet. Is this just a slightly bigger dip?

My strategy was to hold enough cash so that after a 50% drop, I’d still be in seven figures… though I’ve already deployed some of that cash into the market… with poor results :smiley: But the expected return keeps improving, right (for cash, that is).

Patience might indeed be a virtue (I guess I’ll have to continue my career a bit longer…).

At this rate, it won’t be long until my portfolio is down 50% :D, then maybe I’ll figure out what to buy…

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In modern-day triathlon—fishing, pizza making, and investing—it would be easy to choose Mikael for your team. There are tough days on the water; you just have to work damn hard. Dough might go awry; you fix it with whatever means you have up your sleeve. And then there’s investing… well, if you succeed in two out of three yourself, your teammates will cover you in the weakest discipline.

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With Meta, will FAANG now be MANGA? :thinking:

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