A few comments on the latest news in this thread; I have an acquaintance in the log industry from whom I always get good opinions/insights.
This seemed to be mostly a promotional release from Ollikainen. Good for Ollikainen, they seem to be doing quite well. Generally, there is definitely no boom in the industry right now. Yes, cabins are going to Lapland and single-family house construction has woken up from its worst coma, but that 46% growth isn’t enough yet when the starting point was so low. It’s also worth remembering that growth doesn’t mean much if it doesn’t generate a margin. The fact is that Kontio has a large factory being underutilized and they need to get sales for it → margins are being driven down ridiculously low. Kontio is in big trouble; there were layoffs again in the winter, and a year ago 25% of the company was sold in a share issue for 3 million euros to Asko Schrey. My understanding is that it is specifically Kontio’s situation that is keeping log prices low, so everyone has to struggle with profitability. Demand for logs is high when they are cheap; those who agree to sell cheap will certainly get the business. Why buy a wood-frame house when a log house is also reasonably priced? For homebuilders, it is absolutely a buyer’s market for log packages.
Saarelainen has been a good CEO for Honkarakenne; the company suffered more from the Russian invasion compared to its competitors. According to my acquaintance, in the log industry, the CEO should come from within the company; it’s very important that the CEO has a good feel for customers, production, the market, sales, etc. The best results in the industry are achieved by entrepreneur-led firms. A CEO coming from a different industry often has, to put it mildly, challenges staying on top of the situation. As a shareholder, I would hope that someone competent and passionate from within the company could be found to steer the ship.
I don’t know Honkarakenne’s situation particularly well right now, but I wouldn’t rush to the buy button based on seemingly good news or a competitor’s spin.