As far as I know, Hacksaw has never disclosed country-specific revenue, but in the 2025 annual report, “Americas” accounts for pretty much exactly 20% of revenue. I consider your estimate to be quite high, but within the realm of possibility.
However, gambling experts on Twitter have taken the view that Brazil’s impact on Hacksaw is moderate, as the ban will hardly affect gambling overall very much, and Hacksaw has an equal presence in gray markets as well. On the call, the CEO said “not a big market for us, not material revenue impact”.
As for the squirming, I think that’s pretty common—foolish analysts trying to fish for insider information in the guise of guidance, even though the company has decided not to provide it. The stock would definitely take another hit, though, if Q4 revenue turns out lower than Q3.