@Aloittelija heading into prediction markets is interesting news. Prediction markets are clearly on the rise, although regulation here too is unclear in many places, and in several countries, the activity has been deemed illegal. But expanding into a new growing sector without increasing costs is definitely positive news.
I did some more research on the company, and below are some takeaways that don’t seem to have been mentioned here yet.
Redeye has a video interview with the CEO from September; here are the key takeaways:
- Hacksaw has a low single-digit market share
- Share buybacks depend on the company’s cash situation and share price level; well, now would be the time
- Invests in startups in the sector; small amounts for Hacksaw, significant for the startups
- Regulation is not seen as a risk but as an opportunity—this left a strong taste of buzzword hype. The point was that they are constantly prepared as new markets open up.
- Risks are diversified by ensuring no single market accounts for more than 10% of revenue
Risks from Redeye’s research reports:
- Scalability and success in game development are not guaranteed
- Risk of declining profitability
- A fragmented industry with many competitors, both small and large
- Regulatory risks exist, but this hasn’t been detailed more specifically anywhere
Other points that stood out from Redeye’s write-ups, the company’s Q2 report, and the 2025 annual report:
- The founders are still major shareholders, and one of them is still involved in product development
- The board and management own 8%. However, this is largely concentrated in Frédéric Herz, who holds nearly 7%. The current CEO holds only 38,000 shares according to the 2025 annual report
- 41 markets (40 in Q2 + Alberta afterward), 150+ clients, the largest game accounts for 14% of revenue
- In 2025, the top 10 clients accounted for 44% of revenue
- Europe 55%, Asia 22%, Americas 20%
The Q2 earnings call mentioned by @Odetus certainly doesn’t give a terribly good impression of management. I also have a similar feeling that they’re just firing out games with a shotgun approach to see what takes off. You’d think quality would trump quantity, but then again, what do I know compared to the folks inside the company. There are question marks across the whole case—the biggest being the continuation of growth—but the current pricing does make you wonder if there’s something here that I’m just not getting.